Beach Hazards Statement 46, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
316 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push into the region this afternoon and
offshore tonight. High pressure will build into the area
Wednesday through the weekend, with weak coastal troughing
developing late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Latest analysis shows upper low over OH and
the southern Great Lakes, with attendant cold front moving
through the NC Piedmont. The upper low will push across the
eastern Great Lakes today with the cold front continuing to
slowly push eastward into the coastal plain this afternoon. The
seabreeze will likely slow the progression of the front, and
prevent it from pushing offshore until late evening and tonight.
Showers and tstms beginning to blossom offshore early this
morning. Expect this to continue through mid morning, with
convective chances shifting inland this afternoon. Much drier
air aloft begins to work into western sections of the forecast
area but sufficient moisture continues along the coast with
convergence along the front/sea breeze which will continue to
bring a threat of isolated to widely scattered showers and
storms. Best chances east of Hwy 17. Highs today once again in
the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Upper low will continue to lift towards the
eastern Great Lakes, becoming vert stacked over southern
Quebec. Attendant cold front will continue to push through
Eastern NC this evening and offshore overnight, as high pressure
begins to build in from the west. Any lingering convection
should wane with loss of heating. Drier air will continue to
filter in from the west, with PWATs falling below 1" everywhere
by sunrise. Much cooler overnight with good radiational cooling
and weak CAA behind the front. Lows will fall to around 60
inland and upper 60s to low 70s for the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 315 AM Tue... High pressure builds in from the north and
west through the weekend. Coastal trough develops Thursday
night into Friday bringing a threat for a few showers offshore
and maybe along the immediate coast late this week and weekend.
Temperatures are forecast to be around normal through the period
despite the cold frontal passage.

Wednesday... Cold front will have moved well offshore by Wednesday
morning and in its wake a rather pleasant day is forecast.
Surface high will be nosing in from the north and west bringing
light northerly winds and a much drier airmass to ENC with PWATs
likely dropping to around 0.5-1.0" on Wednesday. This would put
us at or near the min PWAT value for the day. Temps only get
into the low to mid 80s on Wednesday which is supported by low
level thicknesses around 1395-1400dm. In addition to this,
dewpoints and humidity drop especially across our inland areas
resulting in one of the best days we have had in September so
far.

Thursday through this Weekend... High pressure settles into the
northeastern CONUS on Thursday and Friday with ridging extending S'
wards into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. This will gradually
turn the winds across the CWA to more of an E to NE'rly
direction starting Thursday afternoon. This onshore flow will
begin the slow process of bringing additional moisture and
humidity back to ENC by the end of the week and this weekend
with PWATs likely getting back above 1" by Sunday at the
latest. As we get into Thursday night and Friday a coastal
trough is forecast to develop and hang off the coast through
Sunday bringing a low end threat for some coastal showers and
maybe a few thunderstorms. Guidance is in good agreement with
this. Temps will generally remain in the low to mid 80s during
the day and the upper 50s to low 60s each night.

Early next Week... Coastal trough is then forecast to exit the
Southeastern Coast by early next week with high pressure building
slightly further south across the FA during this timeframe.
This will continue to keep ENC rather dry overall outside of a
few coastal showers with temps beginning a warming trend as low
level thicknesses increase.

 &&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Tue...VFR conditions across the terminals early this
morning, with potential for patchy fog and low stratus. Increasing
confidence that PGV/ISO/OAJ will see a period of MVFR conditions,
with potential for brief period of IFR cigs. Conditions will
improve by mid morning returning to VFR. A cold front will push
through the terminals this afternoon and early evening.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible this
afternoon, with best chances at OAJ and EWN. Drier air filtering
in behind the front tonight should limit the fog threat.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 315 AM Tue... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period as a rather dry airmass will remain in place across the
CWA into this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Latest buoy obs reporting SW winds 5-15 kt with
occasional gusts to 20 kt, with seas 3-6 ft, highest across the
outer central waters. A cold front will continue to approach
the waters today, pushing through this evening and overnight.
SCA continues for the central waters through early this morning
with lingering 6 ft seas. Long period swell will slowly
continue to subside today and tonight, with seas subsiding to
3-5 ft later this morning then 2-4 ft tonight. Light to moderate
SW/WSW winds continue today ahead of the front. Winds become N
10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt behind the front late tonight and
early Wed morning. Showers and storms beginning to blossom
offshore early this morning. Lightning will be the main concern
through mid morning with convection over the waters.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 315 AM Tue...10-15kt NNW-NNE'rly winds will persist
across all waters starting on Wednesday as high pressure begins
to nudge in from the west. Winds may briefly ease down to 5-10
kts overnight Wednesday especially along our southern waters
before winds increase back to 10-15 kts and turn to a more
N-NE'rly direction on Thursday as surface high shifts slightly
E'wards. A coastal trough is forecast to develop Thursday night
into Friday tightening the pressure gradient slightly allowing
winds to gradually increase closer to 15-20 kts Friday night
and Saturday. This coastal trough will also be accompanied by a
chance for shower and thunderstorm activity especially along
our far eastern coastal waters Thursday night to the end of the
period. Seas will remain around 2-4 ft through Friday before
increasing to 3-5 ft with occasional 6ft seas by Saturday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ152-154.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
820 PM EDT Mon Sep 12 2022

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-140030-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort-
Mainland Hyde-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-
Southern Craven-Inland Onslow-
820 PM EDT Mon Sep 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible through this
evening, some of which could be strong to severe with damaging
winds. Localized flash flooding is also possible in low lying and
poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ196-203>205-140030-
East Carteret-Northern Outer Banks-Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
820 PM EDT Mon Sep 12 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING NORTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible through this
evening, some of which could be strong to severe with damaging
winds. Localized flash flooding is also possible in low lying and
poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ195-199-140030-
West Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
820 PM EDT Mon Sep 12 2022

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING SOUTH
OF CAPE LOOKOUT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible through this
evening, some of which could be strong to severe with damaging
winds. Localized flash flooding is also possible in low lying and
poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.