Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Medford, OR

654 
WWUS86 KMFR 210253
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
753 PM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...Gusty Winds with Very Low Humidity Today and Thursday...

.Gusty afternoon and evening westerly winds combined with very dry
relative humidity and dry vegetation will result in critical fire
weather conditions in portions of Siskiyou, Modoc, Lake, and
Klamath counties on Thursday.

CAZ284-285-220000-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-220721T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0008.220721T2100Z-220722T0300Z/
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
753 PM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
284 AND 285...

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285...

* Impacts:  Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and
critically dry vegetation will greatly increase the spread
potential of any new and existing fires.

* Affected area: 
 In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 284 from Tenant north,
including Macdoel and Bray and most of FWZ 285, including Alturas,
Tionesta, Likely, and Willow Ranch.

* Wind: Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Humidity: 7 to 10 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Avoid tossing burning cigarettes on the ground, parking hot
vehicles on dry vegetation, and using equipment that can cause
sparks. Follow all fire restrictions. Find links to restrictions
at weather.gov/medford/wildfire. One less spark, one less
wildfire.

Gather your fire evacuation kit now. Collect essentials you don't
want to lose and prioritize your checklist. Visit ready.gov/kit
for more information.

Familiarize yourself with your evacuation plan. Where will you go?
How will you get there? Who will you call to let others know your
are safe? Visit ready.gov/wildfires for more information.

A Red Flag Warning does not mean there is a fire. It means that
critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will
shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may
become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire
threatens.

&&

$$

ORZ625-210400-
/O.CAN.KMFR.FW.A.0007.220721T2100Z-220722T0300Z/
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake
and Western Harney Counties-
753 PM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW
RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 625...

Dry conditions with humidities below 10% are expected. However
sustained winds are not expected to exceed the criteria of 20 mph
for more than 2 hours. Isolated and very brief elevated fire 
weather conditions will remain possible in the southern portion of 
the zone on Thursday.

$$

CAZ280-220000-
/O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0007.220721T2100Z-220722T0300Z/
/O.EXA.KMFR.FW.W.0008.220721T2100Z-220722T0300Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
753 PM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 280...

* Impacts:  Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and
critically dry vegetation will greatly increase the spread
potential of any new and existing fires.

* Affected area: 
  In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 280.

* Wind: West 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Humidity: 10 to 15 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

* View the hazard area in detail at:
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Avoid tossing burning cigarettes on the ground, parking hot
vehicles on dry vegetation, and using equipment that can cause
sparks. Follow all fire restrictions. Find links to restrictions
at weather.gov/medford/wildfire. One less spark, one less
wildfire.

Gather your fire evacuation kit now and familiarize yourself with 
your evacuation plan. Where will you go and how will you get 
there? Collect essentials you don't want to lose and prioritize 
your checklist. Visit ready.gov/kit for more information.

A Red Flag Warning does not mean there is a fire. It means that
critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will
shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may
become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire
threatens.

&&

$$

ORZ624-220000-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0008.220721T2100Z-220722T0300Z/
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
753 PM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
624...

* Impacts:  Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and
critically dry vegetation will greatly increase the spread
potential of any new and existing fires.

* Affected area: 
  In South Central OR...Fire Weather Zone 624.

* Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Humidity: 5 to 15 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

434 
WWUS86 KMFR 212134
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
234 PM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022

...Gusty Winds with Very Low Humidity Today and Thursday...

.Gusty afternoon and evening westerly winds combined with very dry
relative humidity and dry vegetation will result in critical fire
weather conditions in portions of Jackson, Siskiyou, Modoc, Lake, 
and Klamath counties this afternoon.

ORZ622-220300-
/O.EXA.KMFR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-220722T0300Z/
Eastern Rogue Valley-
234 PM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 622...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag
Warning...which is in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening.

* Impacts: Gusty wind with low relative humidity and critically 
  dry vegetation will greatly increase the spread potential of any 
  new and existing fires.

* Affected area: 
  In Southwest OR...The Rogue Valley within Fire Weather Zone 622.

* Wind: Northwest 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Humidity: 10 - 15 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

$$

CAZ280-284-285-ORZ624-220300-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-220722T0300Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
234 PM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280... 284...285
AND 624...

* Impacts:  Gusty wind with low relative humidity and
  critically dry vegetation will greatly increase the spread
  potential of any new and existing fires.

* Affected area: 
  In Northern CA Fire Zones...280...284...285. 
  In South Central OR Fire Zone....624.

* Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Humidity: 7 - 15 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

$$

Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

142 
WWUS86 KMFR 220237
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
737 PM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022

CAZ280-284-285-ORZ622-624-220345-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-220722T0300Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
Eastern Rogue Valley-Klamath Basin and the Fremont-
Winema National Forest-
737 PM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...284...
285...622 AND 624...

Areas west of the Cascades are seeing humidities begin to recover
above 15% for the evening, this will take longer east of the
Cascades. The peak winds have also passed, although some gusty
conditions could linger through the next hour or two, especially
east of the Cascades where some critical fire weather conditions 
could linger. Overall though the fire weather conditions are
easing, so will be allowing the warning to expire at the top of the
hour.

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
932 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

.DISCUSSION...A weak marine push brought stratus and higher
humidity that spilled over a little bit into the Umpqua basin,
almost reaching I-5 in Douglas county. With the thermal trough
moved inland today, today will see a peak in the high temperatures
further inland, before changing into a cooling pattern as an upper
trough moves in. Stratus should burn back to the coast only
briefly this afternoon before moving back in this evening. Current
forecast looks on track and will not update this morning. -Sven

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 534 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022/

DISCUSSION...
Today is expected to be the peak of this week's heat for inland
areas with most valley areas maxing out into the 90s and a few
locations reaching or exceeding 100F. Meanwhile, along and near
the coast, fog and low clouds are likely to be stingy about
clearing keeping most locations in the upper 50s to lower 60s for
highs there. It will become breezy again this afternoon and
evening, most notably from around the Cascades eastward. Please
be mindful that most inland areas are now experiencing high fire
danger in the afternoon and evening hours, so mowing of non-
irrigated grass and brush should not be done during that time
frame. Also, if towing, be sure that you're not dragging any
chains that could produce sparks that could start fires and don't
pull vehicles into tall grass or brush, as heat from the engine
block could start a fire.

Thursday into Friday an upper level trough that's out near 135W
longitude this morning will move northeastward and across the
Pacific northwest. Numerical models show a possibility of
thunderstorm development northeast of our area from Deschutes and
Crook counties northeastward, but not in our area. High
temperatures Thursday are expected to cool only about 2 degrees
east of the Cascades to about 7F west of the Cascades. This means
most valley areas will still get up into the 90s, though areas
along and near the coastal mountains such as Roseburg and valley
areas west of Grants Pass will be in the 80s. Gusty westerly winds
in the afternoon and evening will further dry vegetation across
the area and yield fire spread concerns should any fires start.
Temperatures will be a little cooler for most inland areas Friday,
but more sun and a wind trajectory more from the land will cause
areas along and near the coast to be warmer Friday than Thursday.

Sunday into the first half of next week we're expecting another
round of heat. Model guidance suggests that this next round of
heat could be of greater magnitude and duration than this current
one. However, a look at ensemble spread suggests that whether or
not it will be is still uncertain. The last week of July and the
first week of August is, on average, the hottest time of the year
across the Medford area. Models also suggest a possibility of
isolated thunderstorms mid-late next week, but no major
thunderstorm outbreak. ~BTL

AVIATION...20/12Z TAFs...Over the coastal waters, along the coast,
and in the coastal valleys...Widespread IFR cigs/vsbys in low clouds
and fog with higher terrain obscured will advance as far inland as
Elkton this morning, then burn back to the coast Wednesday
afternoon. The lower conditions will then move back onshore
Wednesday evening, persisting into Thursday morning. Over the
remainder of the area...VFR conditions will prevail into Thursday
morning.

MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Wednesday 20 July 2022...Relatively
calm conditions will persist through Thursday. Gusty north winds and
steep to potentially very steep seas will return Friday and continue
through the weekend with the strongest winds and heaviest seas south
of Cape Blanco.

FIRE WEATHER...505 AM PDT Wed, 20 July, 2022...
A Red Flag Warning for gusty wind and very low relative humidity
is in effect for much of FWZs 284 and 285 from 2-8PM PDT today.
Each of the last 2 days winds across our two counties in NorCal
have exceeded model expectations, likely due to vertical mixing up
to around 500mb. Today we're expecting RHs in the warning area to
be 7- 13% and southwest winds 15-25 mph with gusts 25-35 mph. It
is possible that locally higher gusts could occur at locations
such as Timber Mountain. There's no warning in effect from the
Shasta Valley westward today because the wind maximum that set up
across that area yesterday is expected to be further east today.
Also, a west-northwest wind is expected to gradually build into
the Shasta Valley this afternoon and evening, especially north of
Yreka. Both of these factors are most likely to prevent the 6 hour
duration of RFW criteria needed for a warning in that FWZ.

Thursday into Friday the upper level trough centered near 135W
longitude today will move northeastward and across the PacNW. This
is likely to cause winds to ramp up a bit across most of the area,
though winds in the Modoc might be the same to a tad lighter than
today's winds. Cooler marine air pushing inland is likely to
cause humidities to edge a bit higher west of the Cascades, but
conditions will remain very dry east of the Cascades. Therefore,
we have a Fire Wx Watch for FWZs 624, 625, 280, 284, and 285 for
Thursday afternoon and evening. With a more westerly flow expected
Thursday, we're not expecting wind alignment with the Shasta
Valley, but do expect some for portions of the Klamath River
Valley.

For next week, it looks likely that we'll experience another heat
wave, possibly of greater magnitude and duration than the current
one, though that's still to be determined. While model spread is
still substantial, the median forecast indicates temperatures
pushing up into the lower to middle 100's for some of the valleys
west of the Cascades early to mid next week. During and toward the
tail end of that heat wave models have been suggesting the
potential for some isolated thunderstorms as the 4 corners high
and monsoonal trough edge westward and, eventually, northward mid-
late next week. In the last day, however, guidance has trended
more toward weak impulses across the North Pacific flattening the
flow across the PacNW and keeping the deeper monsoonal moisture
south and east of our area through this month's end. ~BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for ORZ624-625.

CA...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for CAZ280-284-285.
     Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for CAZ284-285.

Pacific Coastal Waters...
     None.

SBN/SBN/SBN