Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Medford, OR

334 
WWUS86 KMFR 170414
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
914 PM PDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...Gusty winds with low RH Sunday and Monday...

.An upper level trough will pass to our north on Sunday. This 
trough will produce gusty winds again on Sunday and Monday 
afternoons, that when combined with very low relative humidities, 
will likely result in critical fire weather conditions.

CAZ285-171615-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220717T0400Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0004.220717T2100Z-220718T0400Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0004.220718T2100Z-220719T0400Z/
Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
914 PM PDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 285...

* Impacts:  Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and
  critically dry vegetation will greatly increase the spread
  potential of any new and existing fires.

* Affected area: In Northern California: Fire Zone 285, including
  Alturas, Tionesta, Adin, the Warner Mountains, and significant
  portions of the Modoc National Forest.

* Wind: Southwest to west 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Humidity: Minimum of 7 to 10 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

* Affected area: 
  In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 285.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Avoid tossing burning cigarettes on the ground, parking hot
vehicles on dry vegetation, and using equipment that can cause
sparks. Follow all fire restrictions. Find links to restrictions
at weather.gov/medford/wildfire. One less spark, one less
wildfire.

A Red Flag Warning does not mean there is a fire. It means that
critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will
shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may
become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire
threatens.

Plan now to avoid using equipment that could cause sparks during
the period when critical weather conditions are possible. Visit
weather.gov/medford/wildfire for links to fire restrictions in
your area.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are possible during the valid watch time. These conditions could
promote the rapid spread of wildfires which could become life-
threatening. Check weather.gov/medford for forecast updates and a
possible upgrade of the this watch to a Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

ORZ624-171615-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220717T0400Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0004.220717T2100Z-220718T0400Z/
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
914 PM PDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624...

* Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and 
  critically dry vegetation will greatly increase the spread 
  potential of any new and existing fires.

* Affected area: In South Central Oregon: Southern Fire Zone 624,
  including Lakeview, Valley Falls, the Warner Mountains, and 
  portions of the Fremont-Winema National Forest.

* Wind: West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Humidity: As low as 9 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

* Affected area: 
  In South Central OR...Fire Weather Zone 624.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Avoid tossing burning cigarettes on the ground, parking hot
vehicles on dry vegetation, and using equipment that can cause
sparks. Follow all fire restrictions. Find links to restrictions
at weather.gov/medford/wildfire. One less spark, one less
wildfire.

A Red Flag Warning does not mean there is a fire. It means that
critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will
shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may
become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire
threatens.

&&

$$

CAZ284-ORZ625-171615-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0004.220717T2100Z-220718T0400Z/
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake
and Western Harney Counties-
914 PM PDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND
625...

* Impacts:  Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and
  critically dry vegetation will greatly increase the spread
  potential of any new and existing fires.

* Affected area: In Northern California: Eastern Fire Zone 284,
  including portions of Lava Beds National Monument and the Modoc 
  National Forest. 
  
  In South Central Oregon: Fire Zone 625, including Adel, the  
  Hart Mountains, and the Hart Mountain Antelope Refuge.

* Wind: Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Humidity: As low as 6 to 10 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

* Affected area: 
  In Northern CA Fire Zone....284.
  In South Central OR Fire Zone....625.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

157 
WWUS86 KMFR 170814
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
114 AM PDT Sun Jul 17 2022

...Gusty winds with low RH Sunday and Monday...

.An upper level trough will pass to our north today. This trough 
will produce gusty winds this afternoon and Monday afternoon, that
when combined with very low relative humidities, will likely 
result in critical fire weather conditions.

CAZ285-180015-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0004.220717T2100Z-220718T0400Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0004.220718T2100Z-220719T0400Z/
Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
114 AM PDT Sun Jul 17 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 285...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 285...

* Impacts:  Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and
critically dry vegetation will greatly increase the spread
potential of any new and existing fires.

* Affected area: In Northern CA...In Northern California: Fire 
  Zone 285, including Alturas, Tionesta, Adin, the Warner 
  Mountains, and significant portions of the Modoc National Forest.

* Wind: Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Humidity: 7 to 10 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning does not mean there is a fire. It means that
critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will
shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may
become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire
threatens.

Plan now to avoid using equipment that could cause sparks during
the period when critical weather conditions are possible. Visit
weather.gov/medford/wildfire for links to fire restrictions in
your area.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are possible during the valid watch time. These conditions could
promote the rapid spread of wildfires which could become life-
threatening. Check weather.gov/medford for forecast updates and a
possible upgrade of the this watch to a Red Flag Warning.

$$

CAZ284-ORZ624-625-180015-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0004.220717T2100Z-220718T0400Z/
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake
and Western Harney Counties-
114 AM PDT Sun Jul 17 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 284...624 AND 625...

* Impacts:  Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and
critically dry vegetation will greatly increase the spread
potential of any new and existing fires.

* Affected area: 
 In Northern California: Eastern Fire Zone 284, including portions of
 Lava Beds National Monument and the Modoc National Forest. In 
 
 In South Central Oregon: Southern Fire Zone 624, including 
 Lakeview, Valley Falls, the Warner Mountains, and portions of the
 Fremont-Winema National Forest. And Fire Zone 625, including Adel, the  
 Hart Mountains, and the Hart Mountain Antelope Refuge.

* Wind: Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Humidity: 5 to 10 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning does not mean there is a fire. It means that
critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will
shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may
become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire
threatens.

Plan now to avoid using equipment that could cause sparks during
the period when critical weather conditions are possible. Visit
weather.gov/medford/wildfire for links to fire restrictions in
your area.

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

060 
WWUS86 KMFR 172036
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
136 PM PDT Sun Jul 17 2022

...Gusty winds with low RH Sunday and Monday...

.An upper level trough will pass to our north today. This trough
will produce gusty winds this afternoon and Monday afternoon, that
when combined with very low relative humidities, will likely
result in critical fire weather conditions.

CAZ285-180945-
/O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0004.220718T2100Z-220719T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0005.220718T2100Z-220719T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0004.220717T2100Z-220718T0400Z/
Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
136 PM PDT Sun Jul 17 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag
Warning...which is in effect from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Monday. The
Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect.

* Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and
  critically dry vegetation will greatly increase the spread
  potential of any new and existing fires.

* Affected area: 
  In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 285.

* Wind: Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph this 
  afternoon, then Southwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph 
  on Monday. 

* Humidity: 7 to 10 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Avoid tossing burning cigarettes on the ground, parking hot
vehicles on dry vegetation, and using equipment that can cause
sparks. Follow all fire restrictions. Find links to restrictions
at weather.gov/medford/wildfire. One less spark, one less
wildfire.

Gather your fire evacuation kit now. Collect essentials you don't
want to lose and prioritize your checklist. Visit ready.gov/kit
for more information.

Familiarize yourself with your evacuation plan. Where will you go?
How will you get there? Who will you call to let others know your
are safe? Visit ready.gov/wildfires for more information.

A Red Flag Warning does not mean there is a fire. It means that
critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will
shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may
become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire
threatens.

&&

$$

CAZ284-ORZ624-625-180400-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0004.220717T2100Z-220718T0400Z/
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake
and Western Harney Counties-
136 PM PDT Sun Jul 17 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284...
624 AND 625...

* Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and
  critically dry vegetation will greatly increase the spread
  potential of any new and existing fires.

* Affected area: 
  In Northern CA Fire Zone....284.
  In South Central OR Fire Zones...624...625.

* Wind: Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Humidity: 6 to 10 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Avoid tossing burning cigarettes on the ground, parking hot
vehicles on dry vegetation, and using equipment that can cause
sparks. Follow all fire restrictions. Find links to restrictions
at weather.gov/medford/wildfire. One less spark, one less
wildfire.

Gather your fire evacuation kit now. Collect essentials you don't
want to lose and prioritize your checklist. Visit ready.gov/kit
for more information.

Familiarize yourself with your evacuation plan. Where will you go?
How will you get there? Who will you call to let others know your
are safe? Visit ready.gov/wildfires for more information.

A Red Flag Warning does not mean there is a fire. It means that
critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will
shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may
become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire
threatens.

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

322 
WWUS86 KMFR 180413
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
913 PM PDT Sun Jul 17 2022

...Gusty winds with low RH Monday...

.An upper level trough over Washington will reach the Rockies on
Monday. Though winds will not be quite as strong as they were 
today, this will produce gusty winds again Monday afternoon. In 
combination with very low relative humidities, this will likely 
result in critical fire weather conditions again in Modoc County.

CAZ285-181615-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220718T0400Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0005.220718T2100Z-220719T0300Z/
Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
913 PM PDT Sun Jul 17 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285...

* Impacts:  Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and
  critically dry vegetation will greatly increase the spread
  potential of any new and existing fires.

* Affected area: 
  In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 285.

* Wind: Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Humidity: 8 to 12 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Avoid tossing burning cigarettes on the ground, parking hot
vehicles on dry vegetation, and using equipment that can cause
sparks. Follow all fire restrictions. Find links to restrictions
at weather.gov/medford/wildfire. One less spark, one less
wildfire.

A Red Flag Warning does not mean there is a fire. It means that
critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will
shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may
become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire
threatens.

&&

$$

CAZ284-ORZ624-625-180515-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220718T0400Z/
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake
and Western Harney Counties-
913 PM PDT Sun Jul 17 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284...624 AND 625...

The Red Flag Warning has expired. Minimum relative humidities of 7
to 12 percent this afternoon were accompanied by westerly winds of
15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
231 PM PDT Sat Jul 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...The combination of a strong high pressure in the 4
corners region and an upper level low pressure system near British
Columbia/Gulf of Alaska that is digging into the Pacific Northwest
will be the driver of our weather for the next few days. Expect
hot, dry, and windy conditions, especially east of the Cascades.

Key Points:

*Critical fire weather conditions are expected for portions of
 Klamath, Lake, Modoc, and eastern Siskiyou Counties today and
 Sunday. See fire weather discussion for details.
*Some ensemble solutions are trying to hint at hot temperatures
 for Tuesday.
*Several concerns exist over the marine waters with this pattern.
 More details available in the discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Southern Oregon and northern California remain in
between two dominant weather patterns. The first is a ridge of
high pressure over the 4 corners region which is creating a
thermal trough over the Pacific Northwest. The second is an upper
level low pressure system near British Columbia, Canada which will
continue to dig southward into Washington by Monday. Meanwhile,
water vapor satellite imagery shows extremely dry middle and upper
levels of the atmosphere, especially east of the Cascades. This
means that we will likely remain dry, especially as the mixing
taps into these dry layers in the afternoons and evenings. We will
also be expecting some breezy winds in those areas. This will
create some fire weather concerns, so please read the fire
discussion below for more details.

The other observation to make here is for a layer of marine
stratus that is lingering into the afternoon hours at the coast
and Umpqua Basin. This marine layer should dissipate this
afternoon and evening before coming back in tonight. Overall, this
pattern will continue through Monday as the low moves through the
Pacific Northwest (near the US/Canadian Border). The low will exit
the area Tuesday.

The ridge of high pressure, however, will persist and the thermal
trough will have a brief chance at building once again. The
National Blend of Models is indicating a high of 100 degrees on
Tuesday for Medford (a somewhat isolated value). Digging into the
ensemble data somewhat, this seems somewhat spurious since it is
on the high end of the ensemble guidance with only 1 of the 101
member solutions are showing temperatures that high. Additionally
the NBM 1-d viewer is indicating a 5% chance of reaching 100
degrees or more on Monday/Tuesday. This admittedly leaves me
scratching my head and tempted to deviate from the NBM, however
other guidance is showing temperatures near this, and the
ensemble clusters heavily favor southwest flow (which
traditionally indicate warmer temperatures), so will leave it for
now. Regardless, expect hot temperatures slightly above normal
for this time of year for everywhere including at the coast where
temperatures may rise into the 70s.

Ensembles then indicate another weak upper level low moving
through the Pacific Northwest. While this may continue to be dry,
it should relieve the area from the hottest of temperatures. That
being said, a few ensemble members are showing a slight chance of
thunderstorms. But that is still far enough out that any
confidence in thunderstorms in very low. Stay tuned to the
forecast as any changes may have drastic impacts to weather
impacts. -Schaaf

&&

.AVIATION...16/18Z TAFS...Over the coastal waters, along the coast,
and in the coastal valleys...Widespread MVFR/IFR cigs in low clouds,
fog and drizzle with higher terrain obscured is expected to mostly
clear by late Saturday afternoon with a few pieces of low clouds
lingering right along the coast.  The widespread MVFR/IFR cigs in
low clouds will redevelop along the coast in areas from Cape Blanco
northward after sunset and push inland to the Umpqua Basin by
midnight. Over the remainder of the area...VFR conditions will
persist through Sunday morning, but gusty winds will develop
Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. -Sargeant

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday 16 July 2022...A thermal
trough near the coast will begin to strengthen today. Increasing
north winds particularly from Cape Blanco southward will occur
overnight tonight. This thermal trough will bring strong north
winds and steep wind driven seas to the area, especially south of
Cape Blanco. The thermal trough will peak in strength Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night with small craft advisory conditions
expanding north of Cape Blanco and very steep seas south of Crook
Point through Monday morning. Strong, gusty north winds will persist
into Monday evening, then gradually weaken Monday night into
Tuesday. -Sargeant/JRS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...200 PM PDT Saturday 16 July 2022...Winds will
increase this afternoon and peak on Sunday afternoon and evening as
low pressure moves from Vancouver Island, Canada to near the Seattle
area. Ahead of this low, southwest to west winds will increase east
of the Cascades. These stronger winds will coincide with critically
low humidity near or slightly less than 10 percent east of the
Cascades.

A Red Flag Warning is in place this afternoon and evening for FWZ
285 and for the southeast part of FWZ 624.

Conditions on Sunday appear just as dry but considerably windier due
to the trough passing to our north. The Fire Weather Watch, which
covers southeast FWZ 624, southern FWZ 625, eastern FWZ 284, and
almost all of FWZ 285 will be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning.

For at least the next few days, thunderstorms are not forecast which
is good considering our peak lightning season is from mid-July to
mid-August.

Temperatures will climb during the start of next week with triple
digits possible in West Side valleys and periods of light east winds
overnight leading to limited humidity recoveries along the coast
range. Otherwise, while conditions will remain dry, daytime winds
should be much weaker.

Of interest is the weather on Wednesday and Thursday. The models are
showing an offshore low approaching the Oregon coast on Wednesday.
South to southwest winds should increase ahead of this low east of
the Cascades Wednesday afternoon and evening and again on Thursday.
It looks like lightning chances are minimal with this system as the
moist monsoonal flow around the "four corners" high pressure will
remain shunted well to the southeast of our region.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ284-285.
     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for CAZ285.

Pacific Coastal Waters...
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM Sunday to 2 PM PDT Monday for
     PZZ356-376.