Alert archive / Oregon / Red Flag Warnings in 2022
Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Medford, OR
NWS Medford, OR issued this red flag warning at Jul 15, 2022, 2:10 AM PDT for Modoc County, California; Klamath County, Lake County, Oregon. It took effect at Jul 16, 2022, 3:00 PM PDT. It was in force for 6 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 15, 2022, 2:10 AM PDT (09:10 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jul 16, 2022, 3:00 PM PDT
- Expired
- Jul 16, 2022, 9:00 PM PDT
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Medford, OR
Counties Modoc County, CA, Klamath County, OR, Lake County, OR
The radar
The Medford radar (KMAX), 151 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Medford/Jackson, OR (KMFR), launched 00:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 154 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 448 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -217 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2548 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 33 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 58 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 154 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.1
The text
As transmitted.
663 WWUS86 KMFR 150910 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 210 AM PDT Fri Jul 15 2022 ...Strong winds with low RH possible Saturday and Sunday... .An upper level trough will approach the region Saturday into Sunday. This will bring increased winds Saturday afternoon, and Sunday afternoon, that will combine with very low relative humidities resulting in possible critical fire weather conditions. CAZ285-ORZ624-152230- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0002.220716T2200Z-220717T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0003.220716T2200Z-220717T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0003.220717T2200Z-220718T0300Z/ Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- 210 AM PDT Fri Jul 15 2022 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285 AND 624... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285 AND 624... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning for Saturday afternoon and evening, and a Fire Weather Watch for Sunday afternoon and evening... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and critically dry vegetation will greatly increase the spread potential of any new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern CA Fire Zone....285. For the Red Flag Warning this includes the communities of Alturas, Likely, and Tionesta. For the Fire Weather Watch, this includes mainly the Warner Mountain range, including Davis Creek and Willow Ranch. In South Central OR Fire Zone....624. For the Red Flag Warning this includes the communities of Lakeview and Valley Falls. The Fire Weather Watch includes almost the same area. * Wind: West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. * Humidity: As low as 8 percent. * Additional Details: For the Fire Weather Watch in CA-FWZ-285, critically low humidities are expected over the whole zone, including Alturas. Winds are not forecast to meet criteria except in isolated areas across the central portion of the zone. If winds trend stronger, the area of critical fire weather conditions will need to be expanded. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... Avoid tossing burning cigarettes on the ground, parking hot vehicles on dry vegetation, and using equipment that can cause sparks. Follow all fire restrictions. Find links to restrictions at weather.gov/medford/wildfire. One less spark, one less wildfire. Familiarize yourself with your evacuation plan. Where will you go? How will you get there? Who will you call to let others know your are safe? Visit ready.gov/wildfires for more information. Gather your fire evacuation kit now. Collect essentials you don't want to lose and prioritize your checklist. Visit ready.gov/kit for more information. A Red Flag Warning does not mean there is a fire. It means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire threatens. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are possible during the valid watch time. These conditions could promote the rapid spread of wildfires which could become life- threatening. Check weather.gov/medford for forecast updates and a possible upgrade of the this watch to a Red Flag Warning. && $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
4 follow-up statements
926 WWUS86 KMFR 152109 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 209 PM PDT Fri Jul 15 2022 ...Gusty winds with low RH expected Saturday and Sunday... .An upper level trough will approach the region Saturday then pass to our north on Sunday. This will produce increased winds Saturday and Sunday afternoons, that when combined with very low relative humidities, will likely result in critical fire weather conditions. CAZ285-ORZ624-160915- /O.EXT.KMFR.FW.A.0003.220717T2100Z-220718T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0003.220716T2200Z-220717T0400Z/ Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- 209 PM PDT Fri Jul 15 2022 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285 AND 624... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285 AND 624... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and critically dry vegetation will greatly increase the spread potential of any new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern California: Fire Zone 285, including Alturas, Tionesta, Adin, the Warner Mountains, and significant portions of the Modoc National Forest. In South Central Oregon: Southern Fire Zone 624, including Lakeview, Valley Falls, The Warner Mountains, and portions of the Fremont-Winema National Forest. * Wind: West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: 7 to 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ CAZ284-ORZ625-160915- /O.EXB.KMFR.FW.A.0003.220717T2100Z-220718T0300Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 209 PM PDT Fri Jul 15 2022 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 625... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Fire Weather Watch...which is in effect from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and critically dry vegetation will greatly increase the spread potential of any new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern California: Eastern Fire Zone 284, including portions of Lava Beds National Monument and the Modoc National Forest. In South Central Oregon: Fire Zone 625, including Adel, the Hart Mountains, and the Hart Mountain Antelope Refuge. * Wind: West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: 6 to 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
810 WWUS86 KMFR 160910 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 210 AM PDT Sat Jul 16 2022 ...Gusty winds with low RH expected Saturday and Sunday... .An upper level trough will approach the region Saturday then pass to our north on Sunday. This will produce increased winds Saturday and Sunday afternoons, that when combined with very low relative humidities, will likely result in critical fire weather conditions. CAZ285-ORZ624-162345- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0003.220716T2200Z-220717T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0003.220717T2100Z-220718T0300Z/ Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- 210 AM PDT Sat Jul 16 2022 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285 AND 624... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285 AND 624... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and critically dry vegetation will greatly increase the spread potential of any new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern California: Fire Zone 285, including Alturas, Tionesta, Adin, the Warner Mountains, and significant portions of the Modoc National Forest. In South Central Oregon: Southern Fire Zone 624, including Lakeview, Valley Falls, The Warner Mountains, and portions of the Fremont-Winema National Forest. * Wind: West 10 to 20 mph with gusts 25 to 35 mph. * Humidity: 7 to 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Red Flag Warning does not mean there is a fire. It means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire threatens. Familiarize yourself with your evacuation plan. Where will you go? How will you get there? Who will you call to let others know your are safe? Visit ready.gov/wildfires for more information. $$ CAZ284-ORZ625-162345- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0003.220717T2100Z-220718T0300Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 210 AM PDT Sat Jul 16 2022 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 625... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and critically dry vegetation will greatly increase the spread potential of any new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern California: Eastern Fire Zone 284, including portions of Lava Beds National Monument and the Modoc National Forest. In South Central Oregon: Fire Zone 625, including Adel, the Hart Mountains, and the Hart Mountain Antelope Refuge. * Wind: Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts 30 to 40 mph. * Humidity: 6 to 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Red Flag Warning does not mean there is a fire. It means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire threatens. Familiarize yourself with your evacuation plan. Where will you go? How will you get there? Who will you call to let others know your are safe? Visit ready.gov/wildfires for more information. $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
925 WWUS86 KMFR 162149 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 249 PM PDT Sat Jul 16 2022 ...Gusty winds with low RH expected Saturday and Sunday... .An upper level trough will approach the region this evening then pass to our north on Sunday. This trough will produce increased winds Saturday and Sunday afternoons, that when combined with very low relative humidities, will likely result in critical fire weather conditions. CAZ285-171200- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0003.220717T2100Z-220718T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0004.220717T2100Z-220718T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0004.220718T2100Z-220719T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0003.220716T2200Z-220717T0400Z/ Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- 249 PM PDT Sat Jul 16 2022 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 9 PM MONDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and critically dry vegetation will greatly increase the spread potential of any new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern California: Fire Zone 285, including Alturas, Tionesta, Adin, the Warner Mountains, and significant portions of the Modoc National Forest. * Wind: Southwest to west 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: As 7 to 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD * Affected area: In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 285. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Red Flag Warning does not mean there is a fire. It means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire threatens. Plan now to avoid using equipment that could cause sparks during the period when critical weather conditions are possible. Visit weather.gov/medford/wildfire for links to fire restrictions in your area. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are possible during the valid watch time. These conditions could promote the rapid spread of wildfires which could become life- threatening. Check weather.gov/medford for forecast updates and a possible upgrade of the this watch to a Red Flag Warning. && $$ ORZ624-171200- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0003.220717T2100Z-220718T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0004.220717T2100Z-220718T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0003.220716T2200Z-220717T0400Z/ Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- 249 PM PDT Sat Jul 16 2022 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and critically dry vegetation will greatly increase the spread potential of any new and existing fires. * Affected area: In South Central Oregon: Southern Fire Zone 624, including Lakeview, Valley Falls, The Warner Mountains, and portions of the Fremont-Winema National Forest. * Wind: West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. * Humidity: As low as 9 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD * Affected area: In South Central OR...Fire Weather Zone 624. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... Familiarize yourself with your evacuation plan. Where will you go? How will you get there? Who will you call to let others know your are safe? Visit ready.gov/wildfires for more information. A Red Flag Warning does not mean there is a fire. It means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire threatens. && $$ CAZ284-ORZ625-171200- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0003.220717T2100Z-220718T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0004.220717T2100Z-220718T0400Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 249 PM PDT Sat Jul 16 2022 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 625... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and critically dry vegetation will greatly increase the spread potential of any new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern California: Eastern Fire Zone 284, including portions of Lava Beds National Monument and the Modoc National Forest. In South Central Oregon: Fire Zone 625, including Adel, the Hart Mountains, and the Hart Mountain Antelope Refuge. * Wind: Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: 6 to 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD * Affected area: In Northern CA Fire Zone....284. In South Central OR Fire Zone....625. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... Familiarize yourself with your evacuation plan. Where will you go? How will you get there? Who will you call to let others know your are safe? Visit ready.gov/wildfires for more information. A Red Flag Warning does not mean there is a fire. It means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire threatens. && $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
334 WWUS86 KMFR 170414 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 914 PM PDT Sat Jul 16 2022 ...Gusty winds with low RH Sunday and Monday... .An upper level trough will pass to our north on Sunday. This trough will produce gusty winds again on Sunday and Monday afternoons, that when combined with very low relative humidities, will likely result in critical fire weather conditions. CAZ285-171615- /O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220717T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0004.220717T2100Z-220718T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0004.220718T2100Z-220719T0400Z/ Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- 914 PM PDT Sat Jul 16 2022 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and critically dry vegetation will greatly increase the spread potential of any new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern California: Fire Zone 285, including Alturas, Tionesta, Adin, the Warner Mountains, and significant portions of the Modoc National Forest. * Wind: Southwest to west 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: Minimum of 7 to 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD * Affected area: In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 285. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... Avoid tossing burning cigarettes on the ground, parking hot vehicles on dry vegetation, and using equipment that can cause sparks. Follow all fire restrictions. Find links to restrictions at weather.gov/medford/wildfire. One less spark, one less wildfire. A Red Flag Warning does not mean there is a fire. It means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire threatens. Plan now to avoid using equipment that could cause sparks during the period when critical weather conditions are possible. Visit weather.gov/medford/wildfire for links to fire restrictions in your area. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are possible during the valid watch time. These conditions could promote the rapid spread of wildfires which could become life- threatening. Check weather.gov/medford for forecast updates and a possible upgrade of the this watch to a Red Flag Warning. && $$ ORZ624-171615- /O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220717T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0004.220717T2100Z-220718T0400Z/ Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- 914 PM PDT Sat Jul 16 2022 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and critically dry vegetation will greatly increase the spread potential of any new and existing fires. * Affected area: In South Central Oregon: Southern Fire Zone 624, including Lakeview, Valley Falls, the Warner Mountains, and portions of the Fremont-Winema National Forest. * Wind: West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. * Humidity: As low as 9 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD * Affected area: In South Central OR...Fire Weather Zone 624. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... Avoid tossing burning cigarettes on the ground, parking hot vehicles on dry vegetation, and using equipment that can cause sparks. Follow all fire restrictions. Find links to restrictions at weather.gov/medford/wildfire. One less spark, one less wildfire. A Red Flag Warning does not mean there is a fire. It means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire threatens. && $$ CAZ284-ORZ625-171615- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0004.220717T2100Z-220718T0400Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 914 PM PDT Sat Jul 16 2022 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 625... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and critically dry vegetation will greatly increase the spread potential of any new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern California: Eastern Fire Zone 284, including portions of Lava Beds National Monument and the Modoc National Forest. In South Central Oregon: Fire Zone 625, including Adel, the Hart Mountains, and the Hart Mountain Antelope Refuge. * Wind: Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: As low as 6 to 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD * Affected area: In Northern CA Fire Zone....284. In South Central OR Fire Zone....625. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Jul 14, 9:14 PM PDT, 4 hours 56 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 14, 9:14 PM PDT, 4 hours 56 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
914 PM PDT Thu Jul 14 2022
.DISCUSSION...In general convection is on the decline at this time
with last gasp development over the Siskiyous developing, but
looking rather anemic except for one cell near Happy Camp.
Cumulus remains over the Cascades with elevated instability
remaining overnight. This may bring a slight chance of thunder
overnight as a very strong vorticity brings good PVA in northern
Lake and Klamath counties through 12z. Current forecast looks on
track for this evening and overnight. -Sven
&&
.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Thursday 14 July 2022...Lighter north
winds and lowering seas will bring improving conditions tonight
through Saturday morning. A thermal trough will restrengthen this
weekend bringing stronger north winds, especially south of Cape
Blanco Saturday afternoon. The thermal trough will peak in strength
Sunday afternoon and evening with small craft advisory conditions
spreading north of Cape Blanco with the potential for very steep
seas south of Gold Beach. Winds and seas could remain hazardous to
small craft into early next week, but should subside a bit by
Tuesday. -Spilde/Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 219 PM PDT Thu Jul 14 2022/
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows mostly
clear skies, with some cumulus buildups over the Cascades, and
some stratus along the coast near Brookings. The recently-launched
GOES 18 satellite mid-level water vapor imagery shows a tight
circulation off the Northern California coast, and these always
get a forecaster's attention in the summer, mainly due to the
threat of lightning. There wasn't much moisture associated with
this shortwave, but moisture has trended slightly higher in the
past several hours. We've added a slight chance for storms over
Central Siskiyou and Extreme Southern Jackson County for 5pm-9am.
This is in addition to the slight chance for storms in
Central/Northern Klamath and Northern Lake Counties for this
afternoon through the overnight hours. The limiting factor for
thunderstorm initiation today/tonight will be moisture, as it
remains limited in the mid and lower levels. That said, any storms
that do form will have very little rainfall with them.
Moving onward from tonight into Friday and the weekend, the weather
pattern will remain similar through Sunday, with breezy conditions
and near to slightly above normal temperatures for most areas. The
coast will continue to feature overnight/morning marine layer
clouds, with some inland protrusion to around Roseburg, before
clearing in the afternoons. An even drier air mass will prevent any
thunderstorms Friday into the weekend. A significant disturbance
will move inland north of the forecast area on Sunday, bringing
enhanced winds to the forecast area. Fire weather impacts will be
possible, so we'll be monitoring that. See more about fire weather
in the discussion below. Early next week confidence has increased
for a few day period of above normal temperatures, potentially
reaching triple digits in the warm-temperature-prone valleys like
the Rogue, Applegate, and the Lower Klamath River Valleys. The
warmest temperatures will be Monday and Tuesday, and some cooling is
expected by the middle of next week. Keene
AVIATION...15/00Z TAFS...Lower stratus currently covers a small
section of the coast near Brookings. In addition, there are some
thunderstorms strolling through northern Lake and Klamath Counties
this evening. The thunder threat continues there through the
evening hours as an upper level low approaches. Some models do hint
at overnight convection. Confidence is pretty low in this
happening, but there is a very low chance of it happening.
Otherwise, VFR will prevail for all other locations this evening.
Low stratus will return to coastal locations later tonight. We're
anticipating more LIFR to IFR stratus covering the coast like the
last couple nights. We're anticipating some of these lower ceilings
hanging on along the coast for most of tomorrow. IFR ceilings seem
likely to continue along the coast Friday afternoon.
-Smith
MARINE...Updated 215 PM PDT Thursday 14 July 2022...Lighter north
winds and lowering seas will bring improving conditions tonight
through Saturday morning. A thermal trough will restrengthen this
weekend bringing stronger north winds, especially south of Cape
Blanco Saturday afternoon. The thermal trough will peak in strength
Sunday afternoon and evening with small craft advisory conditions
spreading north of Cape Blanco with the potential for very steep
seas south of Gold Beach. Winds and seas could remain hazardous to
small craft into early next week, but should subside a bit by
Tuesday. -Spilde
FIRE WEATHER...130 PM PDT Thursday 14 July 2022...Seasonable,
summer-like weather with subtle daily changes is expected through
much of the forecast period. Dry and breezy conditions will continue
and temperatures will remain steady with near normal values expected
west of the Cascades and slightly above normal for the East Side.
Isolated areas of FWZ 285 and southern FWZ 624 could briefly reach
critical criteria today and again Friday afternoon. A well defined
potent shortwave is approaching the region this afternoon, and this
pattern tends to raise our attention for thunderstorm potential.
Though sufficient moisture is present, it is marginal so we're
maintaining a slight chance of isolated of thunderstorms across the
Scott and Shasta Valleys as well as for areas across northern
Klamath and Lake counties from Chiloquin northward. This shortwave
will traverse the area this evening and into the overnight hours,
and this will keep thunderstorm chances going through tonight for
areas around Crater/Diamond Lakes north and eastward to Silver Lake.
Confidence is low on whether thunderstorms actually develop, so
we're maintaining isolated coverage through tonight.
Beyond today, the atmosphere will dry further and stabilize more, so
what little chances for thunderstorms there have been recently, will
come out of the picture. The attention then turns to a low pressure
moving through Washington State late Saturday into Sunday. We'll
likely see some enhanced breezes Saturday and Sunday
afternoons/evenings as pressure gradients tighten up in response to
this trough. Relative humidities will likely be low enough so that
when combined with these stronger winds, critical fire weather
concerns will be raised. A Fire Weather Watch is in place for this
potential on Saturday for FWZ 285 and for the southeastern portion
of FWZ 624. Conditions look similar for Sunday as well, so stay
tuned for potential updates. In addition to fire weather concerns,
temperatures will lower by a few degrees with this upper trough
passage. Afterwards, however, temperatures will climb early next
week with triple digits possible in west side valleys. /BR-y
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for ORZ624.
CA...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for CAZ285.
Pacific Coastal Waters...
None.
SBN/SBN/SBNThe office that day
Everything else NWS Medford, OR issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 2:10 AM PDT | Fire Weather Watch | MFR | Modoc, Siskiyou | 37 hr |
| Jul 15, 2:30 AM PDT | Small Craft Advisory | MFR | 5 days | |
| Jul 15, 2:05 PM PDT | Small Craft Advisory | MFR | 4 days | |
| Jul 15, 2:05 PM PDT | Hazardous Seas Watch | MFR | 12 hr |
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in Oregon, 2022Red Flag Warnings in California, 2022Every red flag warning in 2022
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.