High Wind Warning 8, NWS Medford, OR

714 
WWUS76 KMFR 290802
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
102 AM PDT Sun May 29 2022

ORZ021-290915-
/O.EXP.KMFR.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-220529T0800Z/
South Central Oregon Coast-
Including the city of Reedsport
102 AM PDT Sun May 29 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Winds will continue to slowly diminish through the night.

$$

CAZ084-085-ORZ029>031-290915-
/O.CAN.KMFR.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-220529T0900Z/
Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc Counties-Modoc County-
Klamath Basin-
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Central and Eastern Lake County-
102 AM PDT Sun May 29 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds will continue to slowly diminish through the night.

$$

ORZ023-290915-
/O.EXP.KMFR.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-220529T0800Z/
Central Douglas County-
102 AM PDT Sun May 29 2022

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds will continue to slowly diminish through the night.

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
855 AM PDT Sat May 28 2022

.UPDATE...Showers are moving into the region this morning ahead of
the next front due to pass through the area later today.
Widespread precipitation and gusty winds are expected ahead of the
front, as well as a chance for thunderstorms, mainly along and
west of the Interstate 5 corridor, with showers continuing behind
the front tonight into tomorrow morning.

Model guidance this morning, particularly the higher res suites,
are depicting a stronger burst of winds along the north coast
(areas north of Coos Bay) this evening as a compact surface low
moves onshore. With model winds at 925 mb of 50 to 60 kts, wind
gusts are likely to be much higher than earlier thought. This
"stinger," highly unusual for this time of year, has good
potential to produce numerous problems, especially for any
campers or other outdoor recreationists attempting to enjoy the
holiday weekend. Also, with trees now fully leafed, the likelihood
for downed trees/branches and power outages are increased. Given
the much increased risk, have issued a High Wind Warning for the
immediate coast, and a Wind Advisory for the coastal ranges, both
within Coos and western Douglas counties. For more details, see
PDXNPWMFR.

For more information the rest of the forecast, see the previous
discussion below. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z TAFs...Expect VFR to prevail through around 15z
for most inland areas, except along and to about 20 miles west of
the coast, where IFR conditions currently exist in low clouds and
stratus.

Low level wind shear is expected along and near the Coos County
coast, to include at KOTH, during the course of the morning into the
early afternoon.

Further, expect mostly MVFR to local IFR in rain and mist along and
near the coast at lower elevations, and VFR with periods of MVFR in
rain and mist inland from the coast ranges east to along and near
the Cascades. Expect widespread terrain obscurations across the
higher terrain, especially from the Cascades westward, where the
snow level will be mostly 6kft-7kft.

Gusty winds of 30-50 mph will also be possible, at times, across the
area Saturday afternoon and evening, especially along and near the
coast, across and east of the coastal ranges, and across the east
side. Gusts in the 20-30 mph range will be possible in west side
valleys at times this afternoon. ~BTL/Miles

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 AM PDT Saturday 28 May 2022...Very steep and
hazardous seas are expected across all areas through tonight as
south winds increase ahead of a strong late season front. Gales are
expected north of Cape Blanco by noon. Isolated occurrences of gale
force winds as far south as Port Orford are also possible.

Winds will quickly shift to northwest late Saturday afternoon,
remaining strong into Saturday evening north of Cape Blanco. This
will be followed by a high and very steep west-northwest fresh swell
peaking at 10 to 17 feet at 10 seconds, lowest near Point St. George
and highest offshore of Reedsport. Winds will diminish overnight,
but seas will remain very steep and hazardous into Sunday morning.

Winds and seas will diminish briefly Sunday into Monday, then a
developing thermal trough will bring gusty north winds and steep
wind driven seas to the area Monday evening through Tuesday night,
especially south of Cape Blanco. The thermal trough will weaken
Wednesday, and winds and seas will also diminish at that time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 401 AM PDT Sat May 28 2022/

DISCUSSION...A wet, unseasonably cold, and windy day is on tap as
an upper trough deepens into a closed upper low that swings
through northern Oregon today into tonight.

Currently elevated instability over the far east side is bringing
decreasing showers, but have not been producing any lightning. The
precipitation with the approaching vibrant late spring system
should reach the coast soon. With very strong dynamics with the
region in the left exit region of a 110 kt jet with strong upper
divergence, and a touch of an atmospheric river, this system will
bring a healthy dose of almost summer precipitation.
Although many may not be appreciative of the timing of this for
the holiday weekend. After the front passes this afternoon,
coastal winds will shift to the northwest and remain gusty north
of Cape Blanco as the winds on the back side of the surface low
rotate into the coast. As is typical with systems of this type
(although the type is more typical to winter and early spring than
late May) winds over high terrain and across the East Side will
be gusty as well, especially in the more exposed and wind- prone
areas. A Wind Advisory is in effect for this, with details found
at PDXNPWMFR.

Otherwise, this event will be primarily a rain producer, with
decent, but not strong, onshore moisture flow and plenty of
upslope production along the coast, the coastal ranges, and the
Cascades. Up to an inch to an inch and a half of precipitation is
expected along the coast and coastal ranges, as well as thew
Cascades and western Cascade slopes, with other areas expecting
around a quarter to half an inch, or even less in the usual
downsloping locations of the Rogue and Shasta valleys. As it is
May, thunderstorms will be a concern for most of the region
throughout the day, especially in the afternoon, so even if there
are people who are willing to brave the rain and wind to enjoy
outdoor activities, lighting will be a threat, especially along
and eats of the Interstate 5 corridor.

Snow levels will begin Saturday morning at around 7000 feet, but
will lower to 4500 feet by Saturday evening as the front passes
and cooler air begins to move into the region. With vigorous
shower activity continuing well into Sunday morning, this could
result in several inches of new snow for the Cascades,
particularly along and north of Crater Lake. While total snow
amounts should remain below 6 inches for the more well-traveled
and populated areas, it is the holiday weekend, and folks may be
trying to hike or camp, or boat in the area lakes, thus a Winter
Weather Advisory was issued, with details found at PDXWSWMFR. It
is worthwhile noting that the higher peaks could receive up to a
foot of snow through Sunday morning.

Sunday into Sunday night, we will see continuing showers and much
cooler, well below normal temperatures, more on the order of
early March than late May. Shower activity should taper off a bit
as the day goes on, with overall precipitation amounts trending
more towards the lighter side. The upper level trough responsible
for all of this unseasonable weather will finally dig south,
filling as it passes overhead Sunday night, brining most of, but
not all, precipitation chances to an end by Monday morning.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Sunday for
     ORZ029>031.
     Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM PDT Sunday for
     ORZ023.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT
     Sunday for ORZ027.
     High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM PDT Sunday for
     ORZ021.

CA...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Sunday for
     CAZ084-085.

Pacific Coastal Waters...
     Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-370.
     Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.