Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
231 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022

...Strong To Even Severe Storms Possible This Weekend Along
 with Heavy Rainfall...

...Enhanced Risk Of Rip Currents This Weekend East Coast Beaches...

SHORT TERM...

(Now through Friday Night)...
A weak southern stream wave is passing overhead today around the
base of the departing eastern CONUS trough. At the surface, a
frontal boundary has approached the region but will likely remain
stationary just north of Lake Okeechobee. As this boundary
dissipates surface flow over South Florida will remain weak and
southerly to southeasterly. These features have enhanced moisture
convergence over the area as the 12Z MFL sounding indicated PWATs of
1.12 inches. This is higher than yesterday, but not extraordinary
for this time of year. T(Now through Friday Night)...
A weak southern stream wave is passing overhead today around the
base of the departing eastern CONUS trough. At the surface, a
frontal boundary has approached the region but will likely remain
stationary just north of Lake Okeechobee. As this boundary
dissipates surface flow over South Florida will remain weak and
southerly to southeasterly. These features have enhanced moisture
convergence over the area as the 12Z MFL sounding indicated PWATs of
1.12 inches. This is higher than yesterday, but not extraordinary
for this time of year. The concern with localized flooding today
will come from slow moving showers or training showers over the east
coast. With weak surface flow, convection will be dominated by sea
breeze and frontal boundary interactions continuing through the rest
of this evening and into the overnight hours. Scattered showers and
potentially an isolated thunderstorm all remain possible heading
into the overnight hours, with models suggesting Broward and Palm
Beach counties will see the most rainfall through Friday. While the
entire CWA has the threat for heavy rainfall this evening, the
greatest threat region tonight and into tomorrow will be the east
coast counties where moisture convergence is maximized. While common
rainfall amounts through the period should be on the order of 1-3",
CAM ensembles raw output and LPMM fields suggest the potential for
isolated 5-7" amounts. Aside from the soggy night ahead, expect
overnight lows tonight in the mid 70s across the east coast with mid-
60s elsewhere.

On Friday, surface flow will strengthen and become easterly as a
high builds over the Atlantic to the east. This easterly flow will
continue to enhance moisture convergence over the eastern coast of
SFL and poses another heavy rainfall risk, particularly during the
afternoon hours. CAMs do not show much break in the convection
between Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon, though the heaviest
convection should remain over the Atlantic waters on Friday morning.
As easterly flow strengthens and land heats up, it is likely these
showers begin propagating over the eastern metro areas Friday
afternoon. Depending on how convection develops, there could be
issues with metro street flooding again if showers or storms begin
training over one area. Again, the heaviest rain appears to be
favored for Broward and Palm Beach counties on Friday afternoon.
Though if easterly flow inland remains weak enough where a Gulf
breeze develops, this could create a scenario where the western FL
coast also sees heavy rainfall along the boundary where low level
convergence is enhanced. Overall this period will be rather soggy
with messy boundary interactions playing a large role in where the
heaviest rainfall ends up being. Expect highs in the mid 80s along
the west coast with low 80s elsewhere. he concern with localized
flooding today will come from slow moving showers or training
showers over the east coast. With weak surface flow, convection
will be dominated by sea breeze and frontal boundary interactions
continuing through the rest of this evening and into the overnight
hours. Scattered showers and potentially an isolated thunderstorm
all remain possible heading into the overnight hours, with models
suggesting Broward and Palm Beach counties will see the most
rainfall through Friday. While the entire CWA has the threat for
heavy rainfall this evening, the greatest threat region tonight
and into tomorrow will be the east coast counties where moisture
convergence is maximized. While common rainfall amounts through
the period should be on the order of 1-3", CAM ensembles raw
output and LPMM fields suggest the potential for isolated 5-7"
amounts. Aside from the soggy night ahead, expect overnight lows
tonight in the mid 70s across the east coast with mid- 60s
elsewhere.

On Friday, surface flow will strengthen and become easterly as a
high builds over the Atlantic to the east. This easterly flow will
continue to enhance moisture convergence over the eastern coast of
SFL and poses another heavy rainfall risk, particularly during the
afternoon hours. CAMs do not show much break in the convection
between Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon, though the heaviest
convection should remain over the Atlantic waters on Friday morning.
As easterly flow strengthens and land heats up, it is likely these
showers begin propagating over the eastern metro areas Friday
afternoon. Depending on how convection develops, there could be
issues with metro street flooding again if showers or storms begin
training over one area. Again, the heaviest rain appears to be
favored for Broward and Palm Beach counties on Friday afternoon.
Though if easterly flow inland remains weak enough where a Gulf
breeze develops, this could create a scenario where the western FL
coast also sees heavy rainfall along the boundary where low level
convergence is enhanced. Overall this period will be rather soggy
with messy boundary interactions playing a large role in where the
heaviest rainfall ends up being. Expect highs in the mid 80s along
the west coast with low 80s elsewhere.

LONG TERM...

(This Weekend)...
A board mid to upper level trough will remain over the Eastern
United States, as a frontal frontal boundary remains nearly
stationary over South Florida while slowly weakening. This will
allow for a south southwest steering flow over South Florida
keeping the tropical air mass in place over South Florida leading
to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The best
coverage will be over the interior and east coast metro areas each
afternoon into early evening.

There will also be couple of short waves moving through South Florida.
This will allow for the 500 mb temps to cool down -11 to -13C
over South Florida. The PWAT values will also be around 1.5 to 1.7
inches over South Florida during this time frame which is near
the 90th percentile for this time of year. The LFC (Level of Free
Convect) will also be between 1000 to 3000 FT which is low for
this time. Therefore, some of the storms could become strong to
even isolated severe especially where the sea breezes collide over
the eastern areas. The primary impacts at this time will be
possible large hail, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning
strikes.

(Early To Middle Of Next Week)...
Surface high over the Western Atlantic waters will build into the
Florida Peninsula as the mid to upper level trough remains over
the Eastern United States. This will allow for low level easterly
winds to set up, but the steering flow will still be from the
south southwest over South Florida. This will keep the moisture in
place over the region leading to isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms each day over South Florida. However, the focus
for the highest coverage will be more over the Lake Okeechobee
region where the sea breezes collide.

Highs this weekend into early next week will be in the 80s over
most areas each day except around 80 east coast metro areas. Lows
will be in the 60s over most areas each night except around 70
east coast metro areas.

&&

MARINE...

Light and variable winds today will become easterly by tonight
and increase to around 15 to 20 knots late on Friday. ESE flow
around this magnitude will continue into mid-week next week. A 2-4
ft NE swell is forecast to spill southward down to the Palm Beach
county area tonight through Friday night which may bump seas up
to Advisory levels as it interacts with the elevated winds and
Gulf Stream. Advisory conditions should then subside mid to late
weekend.&&

&&

BEACHES...

A high risk of rip currents is forecast along Palm Beaches through
Friday evening due to the heightened swell. As winds and swell
increase tomorrow, a high risk will more likely be expanded down
the entire east coast for the weekend and into next week in later
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
VCSH at all east coast terminals through most of the period with
thunder possible this afternoon and potentially Friday afternoon as
well, though will wait for more confirmation to include VCTS in the
TAFs for Friday. VFR prevails with lower ceilings possible in
passing showers and storms through the period. Likely seabreeze
development at APF this afternoon with westerly winds and
southeasterly to easterly winds at all other sites. Light and
variable winds tonight strengthening and becoming easterly by Friday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            72  81  72  82 /  40  60  50  60
West Kendall     69  82  69  84 /  40  60  40  60
Opa-Locka        71  81  70  82 /  50  70  50  60
Homestead        70  81  70  82 /  40  50  40  60
Fort Lauderdale  71  80  70  81 /  50  70  60  70
N Ft Lauderdale  71  79  70  79 /  50  70  60  70
Pembroke Pines   70  81  70  82 /  50  70  50  70
West Palm Beach  70  79  69  79 /  60  60  60  70
Boca Raton       71  80  70  81 /  60  70  60  70
Naples           69  85  69  86 /  20  50  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Update/Aviation...Rizzuto
Today through Friday and Marine...Rizzuto
Friday Night through Wednesday...BNB

Visit us at weather.gov/miami

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwsmiami
www.twitter.com/nwsmiami

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
124 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
291130-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
124 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2022

...Strong Afternoon/Evening Storms with Localized Flooding Possible...
...Palm Beaches: High Rip Current Risk Today...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents along the Palm
Beaches and a moderate risk for Broward beaches.

Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous storms are expected across all
of South Florida this afternoon through the evening. The strongest
storms may be capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts,
small hail, and funnel clouds. Storms may linger in a more isolated
nature along the east coast overnight.

Flooding: Areas along the east coast metro that receive multiple
rounds of rain have the potential to experience localized flooding of
poor drainage areas.

Marine: Seas will continue increasing through today. By tonight,
Advisory level seas are possible for waters adjacent to Palm Beach
county.

Waterspouts: There is a limited chance for waterspouts today across
the Atlantic, Gulf and Okeechobee waters today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Showers and storms will remain quite numerous through the weekend.
The threat for localized flooding will continue through at least
Saturday. A high risk for rip currents is expected along the entire
east coast by this weekend along with cautionary level winds and
seas into next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

RAG

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