Small Craft Advisory 29, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
921 AM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022

.UPDATE...
Latest analysis shows low pressure associated with PTC 1 now
crossing the peninsula across the Lake Okee region although it is
embedded within a broad area of low pressure across the region.
For the next several hours and into the afternoon the main concern
will remain the risk of excessive rainfall with concerns for
considerable to major flooding mainly across portions of the east
coast. Despite system crossing the peninsula, there are no
concerns of note with sustained tropical storm force winds outside
winds gusts to tropical storm force with the remaining rounds of
rain/storms moving across the area. The tornado concerns will
continue to abate from this point on as well.

Consensus of high resolution guidance indicate that as the system
exists the east coast this afternoon, the threat of heavy rains
will begin to subside, but the threat for flooding will linger
along the east coast through probably late afternoon. After that,
a transition to a typical summer time pattern will begin as laid
out in the discussion below.

It is likely tropical storm warnings for portions of the area will
begin to be cancelled with the late morning update.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 750 AM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022)

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...
A morning round of convection is affecting terminals on both
coasts. A lull will develop as the day continues but activity may
return along the east coast terminals later in the day. Sub-VFR
likely with bouts of IFR/LIFR with convection. Short-fused AMDs
will likely be necessary. Conditions should improve gradually
overnight into Sunday. Wind gusts and directional variability will
be a concern through the period around convection.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022)

SHORT TERM (Through Sunday)...

While PTC 1 has thus far failed to develop into a tropical
cyclone, impacts across the region have panned out as expected.

Convection has remained well east of the broad low pressure
center in the sheared environment. Further, dry air mixed in
within the larger circulation, and even between convective bands
has likely limited organization as well. North-south banding of
rain focused by the strong low-level wind field through the
Straits and into South Florida has resulted in multiple rounds of
heavy rain across the east coast urban corridor. The strong wind
field and slightly backed low-level winds have resulted in a
favorable environment for tornadogenesis as well, though the more
favorable instability has kept the more robust circulations mostly
offshore.

CAM guidance has done a relatively good job regarding rainfall
amounts and localized maxima, though the placement and evolution
of future rainfall doesn't exactly match ongoing coverage. Based
on satellite analysis, would expect the ongoing batch of rain to
continue for the next couple of hours, with another round behind
the pocket of drier air moving over southwest FL and the Keys
later this morning. The ongoing convection will likely be the
slowest moving and produce the highest rain amounts, with a more
progressive but still flood-aggravating round of heavy rain later
in the morning. Second to the flooding rain threat, the threat for
an isolated tornado continues (primarily along the east coast).
While the instability may increase a bit this morning into the
early afternoon, hodographs look a little less favorable the
further we go into the day as low-level winds become a little more
unidirectional. There may be a brief window around sunrise where
some overlap may heighten the risk should robust convection
develop.

The low pressure system is forecast to become more progressive
this afternoon as it begins to absorb into the eastern CONUS
longwave pattern. This will quickly take the heavy rain threat out
of south Florida by the late afternoon hours.

Wrap around low-level moisture and the convergent flow around the
back of the low will result in scattered convection on Sunday
afternoon. However, widespread heavy rain or severe weather is not
anticipated at this time due to the scattered nature of storms and
the dry air aloft.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...

High pressure will begin to build over the region in the wake of PTC
One. This will allow for drier air to overspread the region, which
will result in lower rainfall chances. However, relatively weak
synoptic flow and sufficient lingering moisture will still allow for
sea-breeze convection to develop along the coast. Overall the
upcoming week will generally consist of typical afternoon diurnally-
driven convection. While the most robust storms could result in
ponding of roadways and locally strong wind gusts, anticipated
impacts should be limited through the duration of this period.

Maximum temperatures  will generally be in the upper 80s to lower
90s through the week. Dewpoints in the lower/mid 70s will result in
muggy conditions, while overnight lows will be in the low 70s to
upper 70s along the east coast through much of the week.

MARINE...

Strong winds gusting to tropical storm force and seas 7 to 10 feet
across the Atlantic will subside to low-end Advisory conditions by
tonight. Conditions will then improve through the day Sunday, with
relatively light winds and low seas prevailing into and through
next week.

BEACHES...

A high risk for rip currents and elevated surf will continue
today, before quickly subsiding on Sunday. A bit of northeasterly
swell next week may result in slightly elevated surf along the
Palm beaches, but otherwise, much more favorable beach conditions
are expected next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  91  77  90 /  50  40  20  40
West Kendall     75  91  74  90 /  50  40  20  40
Opa-Locka        75  91  76  90 /  50  40  20  40
Homestead        75  90  74  88 /  50  40  20  40
Fort Lauderdale  76  90  77  89 /  50  40  20  40
N Ft Lauderdale  75  89  76  88 /  50  40  10  40
Pembroke Pines   75  91  75  90 /  50  40  10  40
West Palm Beach  73  88  74  88 /  50  40  10  40
Boca Raton       74  91  75  90 /  50  40  10  40
Naples           77  89  77  90 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for FLZ069-
     075-173-174.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ069-168-172-
     173.

AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

Update/Aviation...PS
Today through Sunday and Marine...99
Sunday Night through Friday...99

Visit us at weather.gov/miami

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
439 AM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
050245-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
439 AM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022

...Tropical Storm Warnings in effect for all of South Florida...
...Flash Flooding ongoing across the southeast Florida coast..
...Flood Watch Through Tonight...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Tropical storm warnings are in effect. Please see the HLS product
for more information. A Flood Watch is in effect through Sunday
morning. Several Flash Flood warnings are in effect for ongoing flash
flooding along the southeast Florida coast.

Poor marine conditions, especially across the Atlantic, will continue
through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Conditions will begin to improve on Sunday with a gradual return to a
typical summertime pattern with warm temperatures and scattered
afternoon storms. Winds and seas will calm through next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
842 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE AVENTURA           25.97N 80.13W
06/04/2022                   MIAMI-DADE         FL   PUBLIC

            VIDEO AND PICTURES FROM MEDIA AND PUBLIC
            SHOW STANDING WATER INSIDE A CONDO PARKING
            LOT, WATER REACHES PAST BOTTOM OF WHEELS.

&&

ATV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
943 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 WSW LELY              26.09N 81.73W
06/04/2022                   COLLIER            FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA (WINK) REPORT OF FLOODING
            INSIDE HOME IN COLLIER COUNTY. VIDEO SHOWS
            STANDING WATER OF 3-5 INCHES INSIDE,
            COVERING BOOTS OF REPORTER.

&&

ATV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
944 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 E DELRAY BEACH        26.47N 80.06W
06/04/2022  M51 MPH          AMZ650             FL   PUBLIC

            A WIND GUST OF 51 MPH WAS RECORDED AT THE
            WEATHERSTEM SITE ALONG THE COAST IN DELRAY
            BEACH.

&&

MOLLEDA

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