Small Craft Advisory 22, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
920 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

.UPDATE...

Not much to change from ongoing forecast philosophy, other than
touching POPs for the frontal boundary approaching the area. Also,
the threat for strong storms seems to be gradually extending
further south than anticipated per most recent model solutions,
so will adjust our wording to reflect that. Surely another update
will be on the works with the upcoming SPC analyses. For now,
we'll keep underscoring the potential for strong to isolated
severe storms mainly north of I-75, but with potential for the
threat to extend further south, including the Miami metro areas.

&&

.AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

VFR should prevail today, but with potential for some MVFR/VFR
periods with any thunderstorm that approaches a terminal. Best
chances for rain/storms will reside over the east coast terminals,
especially with afternoon sea breeze circulations. The situation
will be handled with AMDs as necessary. Gusty southerly winds
expected through the rest of today, then veering more southwest
this evening ahead of an approaching front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 311 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022)

..Unsettled pattern continues today...

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
The pattern begins to shift on Thursday as a cold front approaches South
Florida. At the mid-levels, a large area of low pressure will push from
the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Shortwave troughs circling the low
 will allow for enhancement of convection when they become coincident.
Reaching into the upper levels of the atmosphere, a southern stream jet
will stretch from the Gulf of Mexico into Florida as the northern stream
jet dips into the southeastern United States on Thursday. This will allow
for the unsettled pattern to persist through at least tonight.

Ahead of the front, a building southwesterly flow will allow for warm, moist
 air to remain over the region on today with the potential for yet another
hot, stormy day. There could still be enough of a temperature contrast to
allow sea breezes to develop though the brisk flow could hinder the Atlantic
sea breeze from pushing too far inland which could again provide a focus for
enhanced convection this afternoon and evening. With the frontal boundary
and the supporting dynamics present, strong to severe thunderstorms are
once again a concern today with a focus generally north of Alligator Alley
though some activity south of there could become vigorous depending on
boundary interactions. The primary hazards of note are strong to locally
damaging winds, hail (with cold temperatures persisting aloft), localized
flooding from excessive rainfall, and a non-zero chance for tornadic activity.

Things begin to change on Friday as the front pushes through the region
allowing for drier air to enter the region. Rain chances will decrease from
northwest to southeast though some lingering convection could remain around
the Atlantic waters and even far southeastern Florida depending on how
quickly the cold front is able to progress offshore.

LONG TERM (Friday night through Wednesday)...
High pressure will build in over the Gulf of Mexico behind the
front allowing for a northerly to northwesterly flow to develop
which will allow for cooler temperatures heading into the weekend.
While the coastal east coast metro areas will hang on to the 60s
on Sunday morning, which appears to be the coolest in the forecast
period, portions of the Lake Okeechobee region could see upper
40s to lower 50s that morning.

The high center will slowly shift eastward over the weekend before emerging
into the Atlantic early next week which will cut off the northerly flow and
allow the return of an easterly to southeasterly flow by Monday. Accordingly,
the easterly flow off the Atlantic will allow the air mass to moderate with
warmer, moist air returning to the region though rain chances will remain
fairly low to close out the long term forecast period mid-week.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...
VFR conditions expected through the cycle. There could be some
additional convection on Thursday afternoon, especially for east
coast sites, and short-fused amendments may be necessary. Gusty
southerly winds expected during the daytime veering more SW into
the evening hours ahead of an approaching front.

MARINE...
Breezy southerly flow will shift to the southwest today as a cold front
approaches the region. These winds will likely exceed cautionary thresholds
and could even exceed SCA conditions for a time over the Atlantic waters.
Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the frontal passage
late today into tonight. Behind the front, a breezy northwesterly flow will
develop over the Atlantic and Gulf waters for the end of the week and into
the upcoming weekend. With increasing winds and seas, hazardous marine
conditions will be possible over the weekend.

BEACHES...
The rip current risk over the Atlantic beaches will diminish heading into
the weekend as the surface wind flow maintains an offshore component.
Conversely the risk will increase along the Gulf beaches as southwesterly
flow first increases ahead of a cold front today and then breezy
northwesterly winds prevail behind the cold front into the coming
weekend.&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            72  84  62  83 /  30  10   0   0
West Kendall     69  85  59  83 /  30  10   0   0
Opa-Locka        70  84  61  82 /  30  10   0   0
Homestead        70  83  61  81 /  30  10   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  71  83  62  82 /  20  10   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  70  81  62  81 /  20  10   0   0
Pembroke Pines   69  83  60  82 /  20  10   0   0
West Palm Beach  67  80  60  81 /  30  10   0   0
Boca Raton       69  82  61  82 /  30  10   0   0
Naples           70  80  64  80 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Update/Aviation...AR
Today through Friday and Marine...Kelly
Friday Night through Wednesday...Kelly

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
328 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
080130-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
328 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...Isolated Severe Storms Possible Today...
...Gulf Beaches: Building Rip Current Risk...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible this afternoon and evening, generally focused
north of Tamiami Trail. The strongest activity may produce
damaging winds, hail, locally heavy rainfall, and tornadic
activity.

Hail: The strongest thunderstorms could contain hail up to the size
of quarters, mainly north of Alligator Alley.

Wind: The strongest thunderstorms could contain damaging wind gusts
58 mph or greater.

Flooding: Heavy downpours from thunderstorms could lead to localized
flooding, particularly over portions of Palm Beach, Broward, and
Miami-Dade Counties.

Waterspouts: A waterspout or two will be possible across all the
South Florida waters.

Tornado: Tornadic activity is possible with the strongest storms today,
particularly north of Tamiami Trail.

Rip Currents: While the risk of rip currents will be dropping along the
Atlantic beaches today, the risk will be increasing along the Gulf
beaches starting tonight behind a cold front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

The risk of rip currents may increase for the end of the week and
into the upcoming weekend for the Gulf Beaches as a breezy
northwesterly wind flow develops behind a cold front.

Hazardous marine conditions will be possible later this week
and into the upcoming weekend behind a cold front.

Temperatures could drop into the upper 40s and 50s across inland
portions of Southern Florida on Sunday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however,
individual spotters are encouraged to report high winds, hail, and
flooding to the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.