Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
325 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

.SHORT TERM (Rest of Today through Thursday)...

Showers and storms will be possible this afternoon and evening
initiating along the seabreeze and any outflow boundaries. Hi-res
models continue to place the highest coverage over the interior.

Mid to upper level low that has been impacting the region will begin
to move east northeast departing the region. Plenty of moisture will
remain across the region with diurnally driven shower and
thunderstorm chances dominated by the sea breezes. As these sea
breezes develop and push inland, convection will develop and move
westward throughout the afternoon and evening on Thursday. Main
impacts with convection will be heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Highs temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s across
the area.

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Wednesday)...

The main concern with the start of the long term period will be
the developing area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico moving
northeastward towards the region. The latest model guidance is
starting to come into some agreement towards this low passing
somewhere over the southern portion of the Florida peninsula
during the day on Saturday. While the actual area of low pressure
looks to pass over the area on Saturday, most of the precipitation
will remain on the eastern side of the system. This means that
regardless of development of this system, deep tropical moisture
will surge ahead of the area of low pressure and over South
Florida throughout the day on Friday and into Saturday. This
solution brings the potential for heavy rainfall across the
region during this time frame. With some areas across South
Florida already saturated from recent heavy rainfall, the
potential for flooding will persist throughout the day on Friday
and into Saturday as well. Exact rainfall amounts from this system
still remain highly uncertain, but the potential for a general 4
to 8 inches of rain remains in place for Friday and Saturday with
locally higher amounts possible. If forecast trends continue, a
flood watch may be considered over the next day or two for
portions of the region.

The threat for some strong to severe thunderstorms will be present
with this system as well as the region will be on the northeast
side of the area of low pressure. Gusty winds and an isolated
tornado or two cannot be ruled with the thunderstorms mainly
during the day on Friday and into Saturday. All of this remains
highly uncertain as the exact details will depend on the track the
storm takes. This will continue to be monitored as the week
progresses. High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be held
down into the lower to mid 80s across the region due to the
increased amount of cloud cover over South Florida.

The latest model guidance shows the storm pushing into the
Atlantic waters, and moving away from the region late Saturday
into Saturday night. Behind the system, there will still be enough
moisture in place to support a return to a typical summertime
pattern across South Florida for the early portion of next week.
This will result in shower and thunderstorm chances being driven
by sea breeze development with highest chances of convection
remaining during the afternoon and evening hours. High
temperatures early next week will rebound and rise into the mid to
upper 80s across the east coast metro areas to the lower 90s
across interior sections of Southwestern Florida.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Showers and storms will continue to develop along the sea breezes
once again this afternoon and evening. VCTS included this afternoon
with TEMPOs possible with amendments for any impacts that may
directly impact the terminals. Easterly winds except at KAPF where
Gulf breeze will develop flipping to westerly. Convection will
begin to diminish after sunset with light/ variable winds
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...

The moderate easterly wind flow will continue across the local
waters through before beginning to shift more south-southeast
tomorrow. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue as well across the Atlantic and Gulf waters during this
time frame. Winds and waves could be locally higher in and around
showers and thunderstorms.

As we move into late week through the weekend deteriorating marine
conditions across local waters with increasing winds and and seas
associated with a tropical disturbance.

&&

.BEACHES...

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic
Coast beaches today. An increasing risk of rip current across all
beaches. heading into the weekend as a low pressure system
approaches the region from the Gulf of Mexico. Elevated surf
conditions will also be possible along South Florida beaches this
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            74  88  75  83 /  30  60  60  90
West Kendall     72  89  74  82 /  40  60  70  90
Opa-Locka        73  87  74  83 /  30  60  60  90
Homestead        72  86  74  82 /  40  60  70  90
Fort Lauderdale  74  88  75  83 /  30  60  60  90
N Ft Lauderdale  73  88  75  82 /  30  60  50  90
Pembroke Pines   73  87  74  83 /  30  60  60  90
West Palm Beach  73  87  74  83 /  30  60  40  80
Boca Raton       73  88  74  83 /  30  60  50  90
Naples           72  89  74  83 /  30  60  60  90

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine...Kelly
Thursday Night through Wednesday...CWC

Visit us at weather.gov/miami

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
252 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
021300-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
252 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...A Few Strong Storms This Afternoon/Evening Inland Areas...
...Heavy Rainfall Possible Friday into the Weekend...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents along
the Atlantic beaches.

Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms are likely to develop across the
area again this afternoon bringing the chances for frequent
lightning, localized flooding, and gusty winds. One or two storms
across inland areas of South Florida could also produce strong wind
gusts and small hail.

Waterspouts: A isolated waterspout may be possible with showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through
the week. The primary hazards will be heavy rainfall, lightning,
gusty winds and small hail in the strongest activity.

Deeper tropical moisture will then be working into South Florida
from the tropics late this week into this weekend. This will
allow for the potential of very heavy rainfall across South
Florida during this time frame. This potential will be monitored
through the week.

An elevated risk of rip currents will continue to be possible
through the week along the Atlantic Coast.

Hazardous marine conditions will be possible Friday into the
weekend as low pressure approaches the area from the southwest.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however
Individual spotters are encouraged to report high wind,
hail and flooding to the National Weather Service forecast
office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

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