Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
308 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022

.SHORT TERM (Through Monday)...

Moisture continue to surge northward from the Straits of Florida
across South Florida this afternoon on the SE flank of a mid/upper
level low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Warm surface temperatures
in the upper 80s to lower 90s, cold air aloft, and the increasing
moisture should provide the necessary ingredients for scattered to
numerous thunderstorms this afternoon over the southern peninsula.
The highest concentration of thunderstorms should be over the
interior where the Gulf and Atlantic seabreezes converge, but light
S/SW low/mid level flow should enable thunderstorm outflows to
dominate. This means that storms should propagate towards both
coasts with metro areas seeing a decent chance of storms through
early evening. In addition, a westward-moving outflow boundary seen
on a visible satellite imagery over the western Bahamas may reach
the SE Florida coast late in the afternoon and further enhance
convection in these areas. Gusty winds of 40 mph or greater are
certainly possible with some of the stronger storms, along with
small hail given the thermodynamic profile. In addition, the rather
slow storm motion should result in areas of prolonged heavy rainfall
leading to localized flooding.

There may be a brief lull in convection this evening, primarily Gulf
coast and Lake Okeechobee area, but an upper-level jet of 70-75
knots moving east from the Gulf of Mexico will place South Florida
in the diffluent left exit region and support redevelopment of
convection late tonight and early Monday morning over the Atlantic
waters and move NW over the area. This will keep the threat of
storms and heavy rainfall/flooding over parts of the area through
the night, with the east coast metro areas as well as the Gulf coast
more likely to experience this activity.

Monday/Memorial Day may start rather stormy from any overnight
storms along both east and west coasts, then the increasing E/SE low
level flow will gradually shift the area of greatest storm
concentration over the interior/Lake Okeechobee and Gulf coast areas
as the day progresses. Moisture levels are expected to be even
higher than today, and with lingering cold air aloft we should see
once again some gusty winds and localized flooding.

Temperatures on Memorial Day will be held down some by clouds and
precipitation, but there could be enough break in the clouds
to allow for highs to reach the mid to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Sunday)...

Synoptic Overview: The start of the extended period will feature
a mid/upper-lvl low positioned just off the coast of SEFL, with
an extensive SW-NE oriented ridge positioned north of the feature,
maintaining a blocking pattern through Thursday. After that point
the ridge will retreat SWrd in response to an approaching
northern- branch trough which will allow the mid-lvl low to lift
NEwrd away from the area. At the surface the subtropical ridge
will gradually weaken into the mid-late week period, with the
synoptic easterly flow generally weakening on Thursday. However,
it is possible we see some influence from the upper-lvl low's
surface reflection, although this is largely progged to remain
offshore.

As mentioned in previous discussions, as we head into Friday and
next weekend, our focus shifts to the SW towards the Central
American Gyre (CAG) in the vicinity of the Yucatan. There remains
quite a bit of uncertainty among deterministic guidance and
global ensembles on which particular portion of the broader gyre
could organize into a discrete cyclone and also when this
organization would occur. Regardless of organization, the setup at
least looks favorable for tropical moisture to lift northward
towards our general area next weekend so it will certainly
require monitoring going forward.

Dailies:

Tuesday: Scattered to numerous storms look likely as the mid-lvl
low remains in our vicinity and seasonable moisture/instability
remains in place. Storms look to be the pulse variety given
limited shear, but some hail will be possible as H5 temps will be
around about -9C.

Wednesday/Thursday: We may see some modest drying by mid-week as
the low lifts NEwrd away from the area, with PoPs trending more
towards climo by Thursday (30-40%). Convection will be mostly sea-
breeze focused with possibly a more western focus on Wednesday as
low-lvl easterly flow will be stronger before weakening by
Thursday.

Friday-Sunday: This period looks generally unsettled although specifics
will be dependent upon the evolution of any system(s) in the
southern GOM/northern Caribbean. At this point will forecast
above climo PoPs and slightly below normal temperatures (a
function of increased cloud cover/rainfall), with the best rain
chances Saturday/Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

SHRA/TSRA will develop and spread towards all terminals through 22z-
00z, and have included TEMPO TSRA along with MVFR conditions at all
sites. TSRA will likely diminish over the interior and Gulf coast
after 00z, but could linger over east coast sites as additional
precipitation could move onshore from the Atlantic. Therefore MVFR
or even lower conditions could continue to periodically affect east
coast sites through the majority of the forecast period. SE wind 10-
12 knots, gusty in and near TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...

SE winds through Monday will become E or even E-NE Tuesday through
Thursday as a weak low pressure area may form in the vicinity of the
Bahamas. Wind speeds will be generally 15 knots or less with seas 3
ft or less for most of the week, with wind and seas possibly
increasing by the end of the week well ahead of low pressure over
the southern Gulf of Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms will be
periodically widespread over the local waters through Tuesday, then
decrease some in coverage mid-week before potentially picking up
again by the end of the week.

&&

.BEACHES...

The rip current risk is expected to be in the slight to moderate
range through the remainder of the holiday weeekend and for most
of the week, with the highest risk along the Palm Beach County
coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  86  75  86 /  40  70  50  70
West Kendall     73  86  72  87 /  40  80  50  70
Opa-Locka        74  86  74  86 /  40  80  40  70
Homestead        73  85  73  85 /  50  70  50  70
Fort Lauderdale  76  86  74  85 /  50  80  50  70
N Ft Lauderdale  76  85  74  84 /  50  80  40  70
Pembroke Pines   74  86  73  86 /  50  80  40  70
West Palm Beach  73  86  73  84 /  50  70  40  60
Boca Raton       74  86  74  86 /  50  80  40  60
Naples           73  88  72  90 /  40  70  40  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...Molleda
Monday Night through Sunday...Carr

Visit us at weather.gov/miami

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwsmiami
www.twitter.com/nwsmiami

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
1020 AM EDT Sun May 29 2022

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
300200-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1020 AM EDT Sun May 29 2022

...Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Along the Palm Beaches...
...Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms This Afternoon...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the beaches
of Palm Beach County, with a slight risk along the Broward and
Miami-Dade County beaches.

Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon and evening over most of the South Florida
peninsula.

Waterspouts: Isolated waterspouts are possible over the local waters
through tonight.

Wind: A few strong thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
could produce wind gusts in excess of 40 mph.

Hail: The stronger thunderstorms this afternoon and evening have the
potential of producing hail up to the size of nickels.

Flooding: Prolonged periods of heavy rainfall associated with the
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could lead to
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through
the upcoming week. The primary threats will be brief heavy
rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds in the strongest activity.

An elevated risk of rip currents will be possible through the
week along the Atlantic Coast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

Molleda

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