Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
344 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...

The atmosphere is still conducive for the potential of strong to
severe storms this afternoon and evening. Scattered showers and
storms will continue to form along the frontal boundary, the sea
breezes and outflow boundaries this afternoon and evening. Given the
favorable parameters with cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse
rates a few storms may become severe. Main hazards will be strong to
damaging winds, hail up to 1 inch, and heavy downpours. Can not rule
out an isolated tornado along boundary or sea breeze interactions.
Activity will begin to diminish after sunset with activity mainly
over the Atlantic waters overnight.

Overnight lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s, with low to
mid 70s over the east coast and coastal areas.

Tuesday, the frontal boundary looks to lift out of the area with
breezy southerly winds. Convection will develop along the seabreezes
favoring northern  portions of the CWA. Overall less shower and
thunderstorm coverage tomorrow. As well as a diminished severe
weather threat Tuesday, main concern will be heavy rainfall and
lightning. Afternoon highs given the southerly wind flow will be in
the upper 80s near 90 for some locations.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...

Going into mid to late week, upper level flow will begin to
gradually transition to a more WSW flow. Up to our north, a weak
impulse will begin to move across the SE States. This will help
take the old frontal boundary and push it northward. This may
bring us a brief break in shower/T'storm activity, but nonzero
POPs will remain as low level moisture will still be present along
with some surface convergence along Sea/Gulf Breezes.

A stronger trough will begin to take shape over the MS River
Valley late in the week. Another stronger cold front is expected
to slide southward through the state late Thursday and into
Friday. This will again increase POPs across the region. Cannot
rule out thunderstorm activity, but we'll monitor those probs
through the workweek. Behind the front, temperatures will drop
below average as CAA develops on the backside of the front. Expect
a much drier pattern late in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Showers and storms continue to develop along stalled frontal
boundary. Sea breezes and outflow boundaries will allow for
additional development. VCTS this afternoon for all terminals.
Periods of MVFR or even IFR are possible in and around showers and
thunderstorms and will be handled with amendments and TEMPOs. At
KAPF, winds will shift around to the southwest in the afternoon as a
Gulf breeze develops. Light winds overnight. Breezy at times gusty
southerly winds tomorrow, with lower overall convective coverage.

&&

.MARINE...

Thunderstorms chances remain in place during the next couple of
days, with periods of rough seas and gusty erratic winds with any
storms. Winds will become breezy with SCEC conditions over the waters
with southerly winds. High pressure shifts east over the western
Atlantic with veering winds to the southwest during the latter part
of the week ahead of another cold front moving into Florida.

&&

.BEACHES...

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches.
Winds will become breezy but veer to more southerly direction
through mid-week. Rip current risk may increase along both coast
towards the end of the week and weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            74  85  76  89 /  30  10   0  10
West Kendall     71  86  74  91 /  30  10   0  10
Opa-Locka        72  86  75  89 /  30  10   0  20
Homestead        72  86  74  88 /  30  10   0  10
Fort Lauderdale  73  86  76  88 /  30  20   0  20
N Ft Lauderdale  73  87  75  87 /  30  20   0  20
Pembroke Pines   71  86  74  89 /  30  10   0  20
West Palm Beach  71  85  73  88 /  40  20   0  30
Boca Raton       72  86  74  87 /  40  20   0  30
Naples           72  88  76  89 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Kelly
Tuesday Night through Monday...Frye

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
938 AM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
050745-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
938 AM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022

...Marginal Risk for Severe Storms Today...
...Localized Flooding Possible...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible today. Strong to Severe storms will be possible.
Strongest activity may produce strong to damaging winds, hail, and
locally heavy rainfall.

Hail: The strongest thunderstorms could contain hail up to the size
of quarters.

Wind: The strongest thunderstorms could contain wind gusts of greater
than 58 mph.

Tornadoes: An isolated tornado is possible with any of the strongest
storms.

Flooding: Heavy downpours from thunderstorms could lead to localized
flooding.

Waterspouts: A few waterspouts will be possible in association with
showers and thunderstorms across the local waters and Lake Okeechobee.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents at Atlantic Beaches

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin decreasing on Tuesday, with
a little drier conditions establishing by Wednesday. Then another front
approaches the area in the Thursday/Friday timeframe, and brings
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however,
individual spotters are encouraged to report high winds, hail, and
flooding to the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
244 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022

FLZ069-070-073-075-174-041945-
Coastal Collier County FL-Inland Collier County FL-
Mainland Monroe FL-Far South Miami-Dade County FL-Inland Miami-
Dade County FL-
244 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Collier,
Mainland Monroe and central Miami-Dade Counties through 345 PM EDT...

At 242 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a developing line of strong thunderstorms from 8 miles north of
Copeland to 10 miles southwest of Big Cypress National Preserve to 9
miles northwest of Everglades National Park to Pa-Hay-Okee Overlook.
Movement was east northeast at 5 to 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chokoloskee, Everglades City, Plantation Island, Loop Road Ee Center,
Carnestown, Pa-Hay-
Okee Overlook, Copeland, Wilderness Waterway, Everglades National
Park, Big Cypress National Preserve, Fakahatchee Strand State
Preserve, Jerome and Deep Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Miami. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2615 8118 2586 8094 2559 8074 2553 8068
      2532 8075 2550 8115 2581 8139 2614 8148
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 265DEG 10KT 2608 8135 2585 8118 2555 8101 2544
8077

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Baxter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
300 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022

FLZ066-067-041930-
Hendry FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
300 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Hendry
and west central Palm Beach Counties through 330 PM EDT...

At 300 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Lake Harbor, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Belle Glade, Pahokee, South Bay, Lake Harbor, Okeelanta, Belle Glade
Camp and Fremd Village-Padgett Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2649 8088 2657 8099 2669 8100 2676 8087
      2683 8067 2653 8055
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 252DEG 6KT 2666 8079

LIGHTNING...EXCESSIVE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
310 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022

FLZ063-066-041945-
Hendry FL-Glades FL-
310 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Hendry
and southwestern Glades Counties through 345 PM EDT...

At 310 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Muse, or near Labelle, moving east at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Labelle, Palmdale, Port La Belle, Ortona and Muse.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2703 8130 2674 8122 2670 8155 2675 8157
      2689 8156 2703 8133
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 260DEG 10KT 2681 8149

LIGHTNING...EXCESSIVE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
316 PM EDT MON APR 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0244 PM     HAIL             2 ENE ROYAL PALM RANGER 25.40N 80.57W
04/04/2022  E0.70 INCH       MIAMI-DADE         FL   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK SERVICE REPORTED
            DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
318 PM EDT MON APR 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0244 PM     HAIL             3 WNW ROYAL PALM RANGER 25.40N 80.66W
04/04/2022  E0.75 INCH       MIAMI-DADE         FL   PUBLIC

            EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK SERVICE REPORTED
            PENNY SIZE HAIL.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
322 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022

FLZ069-070-042015-
Coastal Collier County FL-Inland Collier County FL-
322 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Collier
County through 415 PM EDT...

At 322 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Golden Gate
Estates to 11 miles north of Copeland. Movement was east at 5 to
10 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Golden Gate Estates, Ave Maria, Orangetree, Big Corkscrew Island,
West Toll Gate On Alligator Alley, Golden Gate, Miles City and
Intersection I-75 And Everglades Blvd.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2637 8155 2629 8138 2622 8128 2618 8135
      2604 8128 2608 8151 2615 8174
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 250DEG 5KT 2625 8159 2612 8131

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Baxter