Tornado Warning 7, NWS Memphis, TN

052 
WWUS54 KMEG 062220 RRA
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
420 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

ARC031-062230-
/O.EXP.KMEG.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-220306T2230Z/
Craighead AR-
420 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR WESTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
430 PM CST...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened. 
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for eastern
Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3589 9102 3588 9087 3592 9087 3593 9086
      3596 9086 3597 9085 3596 9067 3570 9085
      3571 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 205DEG 31KT 3591 9087 

$$

SJM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
340 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, another warm day is occurring across the Mid-South.
Temperatures have climbed into the mid 70s to lower 80s. A front
is stalled across Southeast Missouri northeastward along the Ohio
River. A few clusters of showers and thunderstorms continue to
occur across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and
Northwest Tennessee. With CAPE values in the 1500-2000 J/kg range,
can't rule out an isolated storm becoming severe. However thus
far because the main forcing remains located back across Oklahoma,
storms have remain below severe limits. As the stalled front
begins to lift northward over the next couple of hours, the
convection will also shift northward. A lull will occur this
evening until the cold front pushes into the Mid-South. The latest
CAMs are showing this occurring around midnight. This timing will
align with a shortwave trough that will be moving into the
Midwest. With adequate forcing and sufficient instability, storms
that form along cold front will likely become severe with damaging
winds being the main threat. As instability wanes, the severe
threat will begin to diminish as sunrise approaches.

The front will continue to push to the southeast through the CWA
on Monday. There is a chance that the line of convection could
reintensify before it exits the CWA around midday producing a few
severe storms across Northeast Mississippi, but the likelihood is
small. Cooler temperatures will filter into the area behind the
front. Highs will be in the 50s with lows in the 30s.

The front will sag south and stall along the Gulf Coast on Tuesday
as low pressure develops along it.  The low will track northeastward
along the front putting the Mid-South into an overrunning
pattern. In addition, another shortwave trough will move eastward
into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Rain will begin
spread back into North Mississippi late Tuesday afternoon and
will spread over much of the Mid-South Tuesday Night into
Wednesday morning before tapering off from west to east.

Winds will turn around to the south quickly behind the midweek
system. This will allow highs to warm into the mid 60s to lower
70s on Thursday. The warm weather will be short-lived as a strong
arctic cold front will move into the area on Friday. Temperatures
will plummet behind the front. Questions remain about
precipitation chances with the system as models differ on
solutions. Highs on Saturday will only be in the lower to mid 40s.
However, temperatures are expected to begin to rebound on Sunday.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

Area of SHRAs and a few TSRAs will gradually lift north this
afternoon. MVFR cigs will improve to VFR this afternoon and
evening with mostly dry weather in the warm sector and gusty south
winds. Low level winds winds and wind shear will increase this
evening ahead of the approaching cold front. A line of SHRAs/TSRAs
will push into the region just after 06z and sweep across the
Mid-South exiting by 18z Monday. Expect MVFR cigs along and behind
the front. SHRAs will linger for a couple of hours after frontal
passage. MVFR cigs will probably linger all day. Surface winds
will switch to the NW and remain gusty post frontal.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
454 AM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-071300-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
454 AM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms across portions
of the Missouri Bootheel, a slight risk along and north of I-40,
and a marginal risk into portions of Northwest Mississippi later
this afternoon into tonight. Damaging winds will be the primary
severe weather threat and a secondary threat of a tornado or two.
Localized heavy rainfall is also possible.

A Wind Advisory may be needed along and west of the Mississippi
River tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms will shift
towards areas east of the Mississippi River on Monday. Damaging
winds will remain the primary severe weather threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Sunday Night into Monday. Please
relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS
while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.