Tornado Warning 15, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1245 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

.UPDATE...
Updated to include 18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 657 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022/

UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022/

DISCUSSION...

A low pressure system will continue to track eastward this
morning across the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi
River Valley. Convection ahead of a pre-frontal trough has moved
into Eastern Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. The convection
seems to be on the diminishing phase at this point as an outflow
boundary is trying to push out from the storms. This outflow
boundary may be the trigger point of redevelopment by mid to late
morning as the pre-frontal trough moves east of the Mississippi
River. The latest CAMs show instability could reach near 850 J/KG
near KTUP this afternoon as the convection pushes in. If this
indeed occurs then the combination of adequate instability and
plenty of shear already in place should allow for the possibility
of severe storms to occur across North Mississippi. Greatest area
of concern would be for locations south and east of Clarksdale to
Iuka, MS line. Damaging winds and tornadoes will be the main
threats. However, heavy rainfall will also occur with convection.
Two to four inches of rain is expected to fall across the area
with isolated higher amounts. Flash flooding and river flooding
will be possible.

Most of the convection should push east of the Mid-South between
6-8 PM CDT. However, isolated showers will still be possible
across much of the Mid-South for the remainder of the night and
through Wednesday into Thursday as a broad upper level trough sets
up over the middle part of the country. Shortwaves embedded
within the trough will trigger shower activity during this time
period. Temperatures will be cool with highs ranging from the
lower 50s to lower 60s through Friday when the upper trough
finally pushes east.

Saturday will remain cool as a dry reinforcing cold front moves
through the region. Frost will be possible especially in areas of
West Tennessee near the Tennessee River and Northeast Mississippi
as lows drop into the mid 30s.

A warm up will begin to occur on Sunday as winds turn back around
to the south. Expect highs to climb back into the 70s.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

Surface low over Western Louisiana will move Northeast into
Northeast Mississippi late this afternoon into early this evening.
VCTS possible at MEM/MKL but the best potential for TS will be at
TUP this afternoon. SE winds will gradually veer SW towards this
evening at TUP while NE winds at remaining sites will become S.
MVFR and perhaps IFR ceilings will be prevalent through much of
the period.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Craighead-Crittenden-
     Cross-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-St. Francis.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Crittenden-Cross-
     Lee AR-Phillips-St. Francis.

MO...None.
MS...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Chester-Crockett-
     Decatur-Fayette-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-
     Lauderdale-Madison-McNairy-Shelby-Tipton.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Fayette-Hardeman-
     Hardin-McNairy-Shelby.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
357 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-231100-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
357 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will move through the Mid-South today.
Some storms could be strong to severe across portions of West
Tennessee and North Mississippi this afternoon. Damaging winds,
tornadoes, and flash flooding will be the main threats. The
greatest area of concern will occur for locations south and east
of a Clarksdale to Iuka, MS line. Best timing for severe weather
will occur between 11 AM-7 PM CDT. A Flood Watch has been issued
for areas south of a Jonesboro, AR to Jackson, TN line.

Strong gradient winds ahead of the thunderstorms will also be
possible today. A Wind Advisory has been issued for areas south of
a Wynne, AR to Savannah, TN line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Areas of frost will develop late Saturday Night into Sunday
morning as temperatures drop into the mid 30s across portions of
West Tennessee and North Mississippi.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed over north Mississippi
today.

KRM