Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
332 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022

.DISCUSSION...GOES-16 satellite trends this afternoon place a weak
upper level low centered over Northwest Arkansas. Regional WSR-88D
radar trends indicate showers and thunderstorms across the Lower
Mississippi Valley with the greatest coverage occurring over
Arkansas, and isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms towards
the Tennessee River. As of 2 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-
South are predominantly in the lower 90s across most locations.

Short term models and latest Convective Allowing Models (CAMs)
indicate afternoon showers and thunderstorms should decrease in
coverage this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Lows
tonight will be in the lower 70s. A few locations have reached
advisory criteria mostly over Northwest Mississippi and will let
current advisory expire early this evening.

The aforementioned weak upper level low is expected to move
east on Tuesday, resulting in an increased chance for showers and
thunderstorms, primarily during peak afternoon heating. Shear will
remain weak at best and convective activity will continue to
exhibit more pulse-type characteristics. A similar pattern is
expected on Wednesday but with somewhat more coverage as this
upper level low will remain situated across the Mid-South.
Localized heavy rainfall is possible as precipitable water values
will average at or above 2 inches.

Long term models indicate the upper level ridge will weaken and an
upper level trough axis will drop into the Eastern United States
late this week. This will result in a cold front dropping into the
region, bringing a period of cooler and drier air into the area
for the start of next weekend. However, rain chances may return
by late weekend into early next week as the Mid-South will be on
the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge axis.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Convection is mainly focused along two corridors. One across AR
associated with a weak mid level shear axis and another from NE
MS into Middle Tennessee. KMEM is sitting in relatively quiet
area on the edge of the CU field. Will introduce VCTS at KJBR and
KTUP for this afternoon. Convection will dissipate with loss of
heating this evening. The HRRR has some development early Tuesday
morning. Not sure about this since other CAMs are relatively
quiet. Will leave a VCSH for now. SW winds near 10 kts this
afternoon become light tonight.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Phillips.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coahoma-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie.

TN...None.
&&