Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
300 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

.DISCUSSION...

A cluster of thunderstorms over Central Arkansas are quickly
racing toward the Mid-South at this time. The highest instability
remains across Southeast Arkansas where CAPE values are around
5000 J/KG. The trajectory of those storms are following this axis
of higher instability. If the trend continues expect the storms
to move into areas of East Arkansas, south of Forrest City into
Northwest Mississippi over the next couple of hours. Additional
storms have developed along the Mississippi River on the edge of
the humid airmass(dewpoints in the lower 70s) and the drier
air(mid to upper 60s). Damaging winds and hail will be the main
threat with any storms this afternoon into the evening. Locally
heavy rainfall will also be possible.

The complex of storms will race through the entire CWA this evening.
A few showers may develop behind the storms along the trailing
cold front when it moves into the area during the overnight
hours. Otherwise, cooler and drier air will begin to filter into
the region behind the front.

Pleasant conditions are expected on Monday as SFC high pressure
builds over the region. Highs will remain in the lower to mid 80s but
should feel nice with lower humidity. Lows Monday Night will drop
into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

The upper ridge will begin to build back on Tuesday. As the ridge
builds back, a SFC warm front will lift northeastward over the area
Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning. Can't rule out a few
showers and thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the front.

Chances for rain thereafter will occur along the periphery of the
upper ridge until Friday. As a result, a few showers and
thunderstorms may skirt Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel,
and Northwest Tennessee. The upper ridge will then begin to break
down allowing a cold front to move into the Mid-South Friday Night
into Saturday. Both the GFS and ECMWF seem a lot faster with the
clearing of the front. It is possible the front sinks south of
the area on Saturday leaving much of next weekend dry. For now
will continue with POPS.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFs

A complicated first six hours of the TAF, with upstream TSRA over
the Ozarks at discussion time. The western edge of this activity
will likely drop south through AR, remaining predominately west of
JBR and MEM. To the east, over south central MO, TSRA will take a
more southeasterly track to into the Midsouth. It is not clear
how connected the two areas of storms will be, with several CAMs
suggesting wide gap of NIL weather until scattered TSRA develops
in place near MEM/MKL along weak remnant boundaries, during peak
surface heating.

TSRA should end north to south through the evening. A high MVFR
post-frontal cloud deck appears likely after sunrise, which should
mix out with surface heating Monday morning.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1147 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-161900-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
1147 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Another round of strong to severe storms will be possible this
afternoon into this evening as a cluster of thunderstorms
approaches the Midsouth from the Northwest. Damaging wind is
expected to be the greatest threat. Large hail is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into this evening.

KRM

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