Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
312 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

.DISCUSSION...

Severe weather is ongoing across much of the Midsouth and is
expected to continue in portions of west Tennessee and northeast
Mississippi through 9-10pm. Low-level shear remains quite
strong per regional VWP data -- 850 mb winds are around 50 kts from
Jackson, MS to Memphis. Damaging wind gusts will continue to be a
threat as this line moves into temperatures in the lower 70s and
dewpoints in the low to mid 60. Farther north into northeastern
Arkansas and western Tennessee, buoyancy is less owing to cloud
cover; however, low /mid-level winds remain very strong.

Strong, possibly damaging wind is also ongoing across the
Midsouth, that is not associated with thunderstorms. Numerous
gusts have been observed in the mid to upper 40 mph range. Well
ahead of the line of thunderstorms, a 53 mph gradient wind was
observed at Tupelo, MS.

Showers, thunderstorms and wind should taper off overnight. Lows
will fall into the 40s across most of the Midsouth.

Surface high pressure will build in tomorrow followed by a weak
ridge aloft Friday. As a result, dry conditions are expected.
Morning lows will be in the 40s Thursday and in the mid to upper
30s Friday. Expect high temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s
each day.

Temperatures will trend warmer over the weekend. Afternoon highs
should warm back into the mid 60s to mid 70s. There may be a few
showers early Saturday as a quick moving shortwave moves from
southwest Missouri, across the Midsouth and into middle Tennessee.

The warming trend will continue Monday. A trough will deepen over
the western US Sunday into early next week setting up southwest
flow across the Midsouth. Tuesday into Wednesday rain and
thunderstorms are expected to return to the Midsouth as another
dynamic storm system moves across the middle and lower Mississippi
River valley.

30

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF Set

Southerly winds are increasing across the Mid-South. Seeing gusts
up to 30 KTS already. Speeds will continue to increase this
afternoon until a line of convection moves through the region.
Did not change the timing of the convection much. Still expecting
line to move through KJBR between 19-22Z, KMEM between 20-23Z,
KMKL between 21-24Z, and KTUP between 22-01Z. MVFR CIGS will
spread into the area behind the convection and will persist at
KMKL and KTUP through 15-17Z. Winds will subside after the
convection but will still remain gusty.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for Dunklin-
     Pemiscot.

MS...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for Alcorn-Benton
     MS-Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee
     MS-Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for Benton TN-
     Carroll-Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-
     Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-
     Madison-McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1159 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-311900-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
1159 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe weather is likely across the entire Mid-South. The greatest
risk is across north Mississippi. The primary hazards are
damaging wind and tornadoes. A secondary hazard includes flash
flooding.

Timing of severe storms will be most likely over east Arkansas
and the Missouri Bootheel during late morning to early afternoon,
and over west Tennessee and north Mississippi in the early to
late afternoon.

In addition to the severe weather threat, very strong non-
thunderstorm wind with gusts to 60 mph are expected across the
entire Mid-South. The wind will be sufficiently strong to cause
tree damage and power outages. It will also make travel difficult,
especially for high profile vehicles and particularly on east-
west highways.

Strong wind may also result in localized blowing dust around
freshly plowed fields resulting in diminished visibility.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed today.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
417 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SE MARMADUKE          36.12N 90.31W
03/30/2022                   GREENE             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM 6
            SE MARMADUKE. OVERTURNED CENTER PIVOT ON 946
            RD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
422 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW BAY               35.74N 90.57W
03/30/2022                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE BRANCH DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
429 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S CARUTHERSVILLE      36.17N 89.66W
03/30/2022                   PEMISCOT           MO   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE BLOCKING SOUTH WARD AVE 3200
            BLOCK.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
437 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DYESS                   35.59N 90.21W
03/30/2022                   MISSISSIPPI        AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF TORN OFF A MOBILE HOME.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
441 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 PM     FLOOD            BLYTHEVILLE             35.93N 89.92W
03/30/2022                   MISSISSIPPI        AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MINOR STREET FLOODING.

&&