Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1048 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

.UPDATE...

Remnants of an MCS continue to push through portions of West
Tennessee this morning. An outflow boundary has pushed out ahead
of the convection. Thus, severe threat for the remainder of this
morning is diminishing. A couple of the CAM models show some
redevelopment this afternoon along this outflow boundary as it
pushes into North Mississippi. Some of these storms could be
strong to severe. In addition, development may occur along a cold
front as it moves into Northwest Tennessee around sunset. These
storms also may become strong to severe. This convection may push
southwestward through the remainder of the evening into the
overnight hours. Will be updating POPS for this evening into the
overnight hours to reflect the current trends of the CAMS.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats from any
severe storms that occur this afternoon into the evening and
overnight hours.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /issued 321 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022/

Early morning temperatures across the Midsouth range from 83
degrees at Memphis to 75 degrees at Jackson, TN. Portions of the
Midsouth may not drop below 80 degrees before sunrise. Expect
another very hot day today. We will likely see afternoon high
temperatures in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees once again today.
A Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 pm this evening. Heat
indices may approach 110 degrees as a ridge centered over the
Plains continues to keep us hot and mostly dry. However, it
appears we will get at least some relief over the weekend.

Portions of west Tennessee, specifically near the Tennessee river
and closer to the Missouri Bootheel may get some relief from the
heat a bit sooner. The Storm Prediction Center has included a
portion of west Tennessee in a Marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms today. Remnants of an MCS currently tracking to the
south along the Missouri, Illinois state line may clip portions of
west Tennessee early today. Outflow from this system may provide
a focus for lift in portions of the Missouri Bootheel into west
Tennessee. High moisture levels and intense heating along with
500mb height falls will result in favorable conditions for strong
to severe thunderstorm clusters capable of producing damaging wind
and large hail.

A backdoor cold front is expected to move across the Midsouth late
Saturday. High temperatures Saturday should be about 5 degrees
cooler than we have seen over the past few days, in the upper 80s
to mid 90s with highs in the mid to upper 80s expected area wide
on Sunday. Dew points across much of the Midsouth Saturday into
Sunday will drop from the middle 70s into the middle 50s resulting
in much more tolerable heat indices. Unfortunately, little to no
rainfall is expected to accompany the cold front.

Next week, the heat is expected to return once again as the ridge
currently over the Plains shifts over the Mississippi River
Valley. Expect high temperatures back in the mid 90s to near 100
degrees for the upcoming work week with heat indices in the
triple digits. No significant rainfall is expected next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFs

VFR conditions through the TAF set. There is a chance for a shower
or thunderstorm today however confidence is too low to add it
into all the TAFs, TUP being the exception. Uncertainty is high
so this may be removed in later updates. Wind WSW 2-6kts and will
veer northerly through the day but remain <6kts.

SMW

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-181830-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

An Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire Mid-South today.
Heat index values at 105 degree or higher will result in
dangerous conditions.

Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into the
evening and overnight hours across the Mid-South ahead of a cold
front. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats from
these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Hot and humid conditions will begin to return to the area by the
middle of next week. Heat Advisories may become necessary again.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into tonight.

KRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1203 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

MSZ005-TNZ091-171730-
Alcorn MS-McNairy TN-
1203 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Alcorn and
southeastern McNairy Counties through 1230 PM CDT...

At 1202 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Selmer, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Corinth, Glen, Hinkle, Farmington, Eastview, Michie, Guys, Ramer,
Allentown, Strickland, Caffey, Wenasoga, Biggersville, Jobes, Gift,
Acton, Kendrick and Chewalla.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3476 8858 3509 8869 3516 8848 3501 8838
      3500 8838 3498 8836 3483 8837
TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 337DEG 13KT 3506 8856

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1228 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

MSZ005-006-TNZ091-171800-
Tishomingo MS-Alcorn MS-McNairy TN-
1228 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Tishomingo, eastern Alcorn and southeastern McNairy Counties through
100 PM CDT...

At 1228 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Corinth, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Corinth, Glen, Hinkle, Farmington, Eastview, Michie, Guys, Doskie,
Strickland, Caffey, Wenasoga, Biggersville, Jobes, Acton and
Kendrick.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3490 8824 3478 8857 3505 8864 3512 8846
      3504 8838 3500 8838 3500 8834
TIME...MOT...LOC 1728Z 329DEG 12KT 3500 8851

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

CAD

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