Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
307 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

.DISCUSSION...
Another stormy day across the Midsouth, with moderate convective
instability and an approaching mesoscale convective vortmax (MCV)
from central AR. remnant from overnight storms over OK. An east-
west surface boundary along the TN/MS line this morning has lifted
to northwest TN in advance of the approaching MCV, while serving
as a focal point for storm development this afternoon. KNQA VAD
wind profile showed weak vertical shear, limiting tornado threat.
As main concern remains damaging winds, a brief localized tornado
threat cannot be ruled out in advance of the MCV center later this
afternoon.

Looking upstream, today's Enhanced Risk area over Nebraska and
Kansas will serve as a source region another MCS that will move
into the Midsouth early Wednesday. Strong northwesterly midlevel
flow - nearing 60KT - will provide sufficient deep layer shear for
an organized storms and damaging wind threat on Wednesday.

A weak cold front will settle into the Midsouth Wednesday evening,
bringing less humid air for Thursday. A few storms developing over
the Arklamiss may edge into north MS Thursday afternoon, otherwise
dry weather will prevail over the Midsouth.

Storms will likely develop over KS Thursday evening, before
dropping southeast into the Midsouth toward sunrise Friday.
Damaging winds appear to be the main threat with this expected
MCS. Additional height falls and weak cold frontal passage Friday
afternoon will provide a continued chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Temps Friday and Saturday will likely be the
coolest of the week, in advance of next week's upper ridge
arrival. This upper ridge will reach 594dm at 500mb over the
Midsouth early next week, with mid 90s temperatures likely as
early as Tuesday.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

Mainly VFR conds can be expected through much of the period. The
exception will be lowered VSBYS and CIGs due to TSRA activity.
Storm coverage will remain scattered this afternoon and bit more
widespread this evening as a disturbance moves across the area.
Only went with a tempo for JBR, as confidence remains higher.

Another round of TSRAs are possible late tomorrow morning with
VCTS added to all sites.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
102 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-082015-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
102 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a Slight Risk for severe storms over most of the Midsouth
this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the
primary threat. Secondary threats include large hail, flash
flooding and short-lived tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong to severe storms will possible again on Wednesday. Damaging
winds will be the main threat but small hail and locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.
Additional activation is possible Wednesday. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while
following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

PWB