Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1222 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

.DISCUSSION...

Updated 18z Aviation Discussion.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022/

DISCUSSION...

A wet night across the Mid-South. Latest KNQA radar scan reveals
good coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the majority of
the Mid-South. Dual-pol radar rainfall rate estimates have been
rather light overnight, ranging from 0.5 to 1 inch per hour, with
isolated pockets of 2 to 3 inches per hour. Showers have begun to
train mainly along and west of Interstate 55 over the past hour.
If rain rates do increase in the short term, the flooding
potential will increase as we approach sunrise. The current day 1
excessive rainfall outlook still includes a moderate risk along
and east of the Mississippi River with a slight risk across the
rest of the area. Normally, a moderate risk would trigger a flood
watch, but due to more than expected uncertainty, the risk looks
more isolated than widespread. Will continue to advertise in the
HWO and through our messaging channels.

The main closed upper low, currently near the Oklahoma Panhandle,
will slowly move east throughout the day today. As it does,
several weak shortwaves embedded in southwest flow will translate
into the Mid-South. This will result in a few more rounds of
moderate to heavy rainfall. PWATs around 1.8 inches, MLCAPE values
between 500 and 1500 J/kg, and weak lift will all contribute to a
low to medium threat for additional heavy rainfall today.
Nonetheless, a few areas could experience flash flooding this
afternoon and evening, especially in urban areas.

A cold front will move into the Mid-South tonight and serve as a
focus for additional rainfall tonight through Thursday afternoon.

The main trough will finally lift out of the region on Friday.
This will bring a return of dry weather and near normal
temperatures. Expect highs in the upper 70s with lows only in the
50s Friday and Saturday morning.

A warming trend will begin Sunday and continue through the middle
of next week. Expect highs around 90 and lows in the lower 70s.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAF/

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to push through the Mid-
South throughout the day today. Expect lower CIGs with gusty south
winds. By this evening the intensity of convection should subside
a bit but with continued low CIGs. Conditions should finally
become VFR by the end of the period.

SWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
409 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-261115-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
409 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and tonight, mainly along and east of the Mississippi
River. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats.

Additionally, multiple rounds of heavy rainfall may cause flash
flooding across portions of the Mid-South.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Heavy rainfall on Thursday may cause additional flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this afternoon and evening.

AC3