Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
738 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

.UPDATE...

Update aviation discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022/

It's a warm and muggy Saturday across the Mid-South. A frontal
system to our west continues a slow progression towards the area
with storms actively developing across much of the area at this
hour some of which have been strong to severe. So far we've seen
generally pea to penny sized hail with some storms. The atmosphere
remains unstable across much of the Mid- South with high SBCAPE
values, steep ML lapse rates, and low 70 dewpoints. Latest GLM
satellite data shows decent lightning activity with storms this
afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for all of
northeast AR, much of West TN, and two far northwest MS counties
until 10 PM this evening. Unfortunately, storms will put a damper
on any outdoor activities through the remainder of the afternoon
through tonight across the Mid-South.

Highest potential for showers and storms today will be late this
evening through the overnight hours in the vicinity of a cold front.
Damaging winds and heavy rainfall still look to be the primary
threats with hail as a secondary threat. No major changes to the
severe or excessive rainfall outlooks for the Mid-South for today.
Areas along and west of the MS River are in a Slight Risk for severe
thunderstorms and Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Given, the
slow nature of this system, upper level flow nearly parallel to
frontal boundary and an unstable environment, localized heavy
rainfall resulting in flash flooding is a high possibility. 1 to 2
inches with locally higher amounts are forecast along and west of
the MS River with around 1 inch elsewhere. So far the flooding
threat has not been an issue but certainly bears watching.

The front will finally push through the area Sunday morning though
rain chances may linger. We'll see a brief respite on Monday but
this will be short lived as the frontal boundary will lift back
north as a warm front bringing more rain to the area. An unsettled
weather pattern will remain in place for a good portion of next
week.Though the next timeframe of interest will be Tuesday through
Thursday. Another upper level trough and rotating shortwaves will
track northeast across the MS Valley Region bringing more showers
and storms to the area. Too early for specifics but definitely
something to monitor.

17

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFs

A line of thunderstorms or mesoscale convective complex will
continue to progress through the forecast area this evening.
Activity will weaken overnight as it approaches NE MS. Expect IFR
visibilities within thunderstorms and IFR ceilings early Sunday
morning. MVFR ceilings will linger through much of the day Sunday.
Southerly winds ahead of the line of storms will be gusty from
the W or NW within the line gradually becoming N and increasing to
10 kts Sunday.

SWC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
307 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-222215-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
307 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10 PM this evening
for all of northeast Arkansas, most of West Tennessee and a small
portion of northwest Mississippi.
A Marginal to Sight Risk of severe weather and excessive rainfall
exists for the Mid South this afternoon into this evening. The
primary threat will be heavy rain, damaging winds, and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Periods thunderstorms will be possible across the Mid-South each
day through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into this evening.

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