Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
305 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

.DISCUSSION...

It's a warm and muggy Saturday across the Mid-South. A frontal
system to our west continues a slow progression towards the area
with storms actively developing across much of the area at this
hour some of which have been strong to severe. So far we've seen
generally pea to penny sized hail with some storms. The
atmosphere remains unstable across much of the Mid- South with
high SBCAPE values, steep ML lapse rates, and low 70 dewpoints.
Latest GLM satellite data shows decent lightning activity with
storms this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued
for all of northeast AR, much of West TN, and two far northwest
MS counties until 10 PM this evening. Unfortunately, storms will
put a damper on any outdoor activities through the remainder of
the afternoon through tonight across the Mid-South.

Highest potential for showers and storms today will be late this
evening through the overnight hours in the vicinity of a cold front.
Damaging winds and heavy rainfall still look to be the primary
threats with hail as a secondary threat. No major changes to the
severe or excessive rainfall outlooks for the Mid-South for today.
Areas along and west of the MS River are in a Slight Risk for severe
thunderstorms and Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Given, the
slow nature of this system, upper level flow nearly parallel to
frontal boundary and an unstable environment, localized heavy
rainfall resulting in flash flooding is a high possibility. 1 to 2
inches with locally higher amounts are forecast along and west of
the MS River with around 1 inch elsewhere. So far the flooding
threat has not been an issue but certainly bears watching.

The front will finally push through the area Sunday morning though
rain chances may linger. We'll see a brief respite on Monday but
this will be short lived as the frontal boundary will lift back
north as a warm front bringing more rain to the area. An unsettled
weather pattern will remain in place for a good portion of next
week.Though the next timeframe of interest will be Tuesday through
Thursday. Another upper level trough and rotating shortwaves will
track northeast across the MS Valley Region bringing more showers
and storms to the area. Too early for specifics but definitely
something to monitor.

17

&&

.AVIATION...18z TAFs

Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to pop up across much of
the Midsouth as temperatures climb into the upper 80s. A storm
could pop up and impact any TAF site resulting in brief periods of
diminished visibility and gusty wind, however prevailing
conditions should be MVFR or better this afternoon. A more
predictable line of thunderstorms is expected to move across the
Midsouth this evening into the overnight hours. Attempted to TEMPO
the passage of this line at JBR, MEM and MKL with MVFR visibility
and IFR cigs. A cold front will sweep across the Midsouth tonight
bring north wind to JBR then MEM and MKL. Cigs will likely lower
to IFR levels along or just behind the front. Conditions will
gradually improve tomorrow.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
307 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-222215-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
307 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10 PM this evening
for all of northeast Arkansas, most of West Tennessee and a small
portion of northwest Mississippi.
A Marginal to Sight Risk of severe weather and excessive rainfall
exists for the Mid South this afternoon into this evening. The
primary threat will be heavy rain, damaging winds, and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Periods thunderstorms will be possible across the Mid-South each
day through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into this evening.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
555 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 E PURYEAR             36.45N 88.22W
05/21/2022                   HENRY              TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON CLAYTON TOWN ROAD.

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
635 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             MARKED TREE             35.53N 90.42W
05/21/2022  M1.00 INCH       POINSETT           AR   PUBLIC

            PHOTO OF QUARTER-SIZED HAIL IN MARKED TREE.

&&

MJ