Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
447 AM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

.DISCUSSION...

Currently across the Mid-South, temperatures are in the low to mid
60s. A cold front is expected to slowly progress southeastward
through the Mid-South. Out ahead and along this front is where we
could see strong to severe storms with the entire Mid-South in a
Slight Risk. To that end, there is a Tornado Watch through 11am for
the Missouri Bootheel, St. Francis to Clay Counties in Arkansas and
for most of West Tennessee excluding Hardeman, McNairy, Chester,
Decatur and Hardin Counties. Primary risks look to be tornadoes,
damaging wind, heavy rain and large hail where stronger updrafts can
form. WPC has a Marginal to Slight for excessive rainfall. PWAT
values continue to be 97% or higher of climatology. Flash flooding
will be possible especially where training of thunderstorms happens.
Thus, we have a Flood Watch for the Missouri Bootheel, all of west
Tennessee and St. Francis to Clay Counties in Arkansas. Please avoid
floodwater and do not drive through any flooded roadways!

Looking at current sounding data, CAPE values in the 500-800 J/kg
range, plenty of low and deep level shear along with a strengthening
LLJ it looks good for a QLCS set up through this morning. Hail
threat diminishes however the wind threat stays the same. The
tornado threat also diminishes but with a notable caveat, that any
tornadoes that do form will be rather quick spin ups, rain-wrapped
and harder to detect. Now later this evening, we could see some
supercellular development across north Mississippi. Primary hazards
with supercells are large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes.

Now onto Wednesday. We are expecting heavy rain to continue as the
cold front exits the region. With the cold front exiting behind the
cold front colder air is expected to begin filtering into the area.
Wintry precipitation in the form of freezing rain and possibly snow
may fall in the Missouri Bootheel and northeast Arkansas. At this
time no winter headlines were issued. We are watching this very
closely so stay tuned for updates.

For Thursday with colder air and any lingering precipitation we
could see wintry precipitation across the rest of the Mid-South.
Looking at the weekend into next week an active weather pattern is
expected to continue.

SMW

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF cycle

Low clouds will remain over the Mid-South for much of the forecast
period. Showers and thunderstorms will move across northern
sections of the region overnight and into Tuesday morning.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will move from northwest to
southeast during the afternoon and early evening hours. Winds will
be mainly from the south at 10 to 20 knots with higher gusts for
most of the forecast period. Winds will start to shift to the
northwest by late Tuesday evening. Low level wind shear during the
overnight hours and into Tuesday morning.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through late tonight for Clay-Craighead-Crittenden-
     Cross-Greene-Mississippi-Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...None.
TN...Flood Watch through late tonight for Benton TN-Carroll-Chester-
     Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-Hardin-
     Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-McNairy-
     Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
402 AM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-231215-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
402 AM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms through the afternoon
into the evening. The main risks include damaging winds and flash
flooding. Secondary risks include large hail and brief tornadoes.

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible over a good portion of the
Midsouth through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Freezing rain and sleet will be possible over northeast Arkansas
and the Missouri Bootheel Wednesday evening through Thursday
morning. At this early time, ice accumulations up to 2/10 inch
appear possible, accompanied by minor sleet accumulations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on Tuesday.