Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1112 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for aviation discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022/

The airmass still remains fairly dry across the Midsouth but a
warm front will surge northward across the region later this
afternoon boosting dew points back into the low to middle 60s. The
moister airmass will initially arrive along and west of the
Mississippi river, then build to the east as the pressure gradient
tightens in response to a surface low approaching from the west,
tracking along the Red River. After the warm front surges north
this evening, a cold front will quickly move across the Midsouth
into central Mississippi where it will likely stall. Moisture
ahead of the cold front will likely pool across north Mississippi
where precipitable water values are expected to reach 1.5 inches,
well into the 90th percentile for mid April. Rain rates may exceed
1.5 inches per hour. As a result, we issued a Flood Watch
beginning at 1 am tonight. The Weather Prediction Center has
included all of the Midsouth in their day 1 Excessive Rain
Forecast marginal risk and much of north Mississippi and a portion
of East central Arkansas in both the day 2 and day 3 marginal
risk for excessive rainfall forecast.

The Storm prediction center has issued a Slight risk for severe
thunderstorms tonight for a large portion of west Tennessee,
northwest Mississippi, east Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. A
Marginal risk is in place for the remainder of west Tennessee and
north Mississippi. A fast moving shortwave is expected to move
into southwest Missouri this evening. The moisture we mentioned in
the flood discussion above will be in place as thunderstorms
develop over southwest Missouri and north Arkansas this evening
and track into a moderately unstable environment in over the
Midsouth. Initially, elevated supercells capable of producing
large to very large hail are expected over northeast Arkansas and
the Missouri Bootheel. As the evening progresses storms should
become more surface based increasing the threat for damaging wind.
As storms approach the Mississippi river storms should be
weakening somewhat but could make it into northwest Mississippi
before diminishing late tonight.

Tomorrow, depending on where the cold front stalls, there could be
additional strong to severe thunderstorms develop over north
Mississippi. Currently the Storm prediction center has about half
of north Mississippi in a marginal outlook for severe storms.
Wind, hail and flooding will be the primary threats. Long straight
hodographs suggest the potential for training and or backbuilding
storms across portions of north Mississippi. This would enhance
the threat of flooding across the region. Storms should diminish
in coverage and intensity after sunset.

Sunday looks cooler and wet across most of the Midsouth but the
threat of strong to severe thunderstorms should be low. Easter
Sunday looks to be one of the cooler days out of the next week or
so featuring lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s and highs in the upper
50s to near 70 degrees. Widespread showers possibly with
isolated embedded thunderstorms are expected.

Showers and any thunderstorms should weaken and begin to shift out
of the Midsouth into Alabama and Middle Tennessee Sunday night.

Monday through Midweek looks dry as surface high pressure builds
over the plains then shifts east across Missouri, Kentucky and
West Virginia then along the east Coast by Wednesday morning.
Expect high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s Tuesday through
Thursday.

After Wednesday, guidance is not in good agreement. Expect
temperatures to trend warmer with highs approaching 80 degrees
again.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

SHRAs and TSRAs have developed along and ahead a warm front
stretched across the area this evening. Conds will lower to IFR
overnight. The cold front pushes south Saturday morning with
lingering showers through the day. South winds around 10 kts
shift to northeast around 10 kts with frontal passage. Conds will
improve to MVFR Saturday afternoon with VFR conds returning
Saturday evening.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for Lee AR-Phillips.

MO...None.
MS...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
323 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-162230-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
323 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a Slight risk for severe thunderstorms tonight for a
large portion of west Tennessee, northwest Mississippi, east
Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. A Marginal risk is in place
for the remainder of west Tennessee and north Mississippi. Large
to very large hail will likely be an initial threat this evening
with the threat of damaging wind increasing later tonight.

Localized heavy rainfall is also possible. A Flash flood watch has
been issued from 1 am tonight through tomorrow.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall exists for the Mid South
through Sunday. Localized heavy rain may lead to flash flooding.
A Flash flood watch has been issued through tomorrow.

Additional severe thunderstorms are possible in portions of north
Mississippi and east central Arkansas tomorrow.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight into early Saturday
morning.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
945 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     HAIL             OSCEOLA                 35.70N 89.99W
04/15/2022  M2.00 INCH       MISSISSIPPI        AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

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