River Flood Warning 1, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
554 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

.UPDATE...

See the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 421 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022/

DISCUSSION...
A little bit of an active radar this morning as showers and
thunderstorms are mainly stalled north of I-40. Some storms were
severe overnight. A Tornado Watch remains in effect for portions
of the area through 7 AM. We expect more development this
afternoon as the front moves through the area. Winds will be
elevated today and a Wind Advisory has been issued for all of
north Mississippi. The Storm Prediction Center maintains an
Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather for a large portion of the
forecast area. Damaging winds, hail, tornadoes, and heavy rain
will all be threats. The shear profiles of the open warm sector,
where dewpoints will be in the 60s, could support a few stronger
tornadoes if any supercells get going ahead of the front. This
will need to be watched through the afternoon hours. Another big
factor with this system is the flooding threat. The Weather
Prediction Center maintains a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall
over the northern portions of the forecast area. This area is
mainly along the TN/KY border and the MO bootheel and NE AR.
Rainfall of 2-4 inches will be possible with locally higher
amounts possible. A Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of
the region through this evening. Behind the front temperatures
will drop and overnight lows will be in the 20s. A definite change
in what we have been experiencing. Guidance still suggests that
some moisture will be around for some snow showers on Sunday. This
set up is generally not favorable for snow but a few flakes
cannot be ruled out. This should not be an issue and no
accumulations are expected. Mostly dry conditions are expected
through Midweek. Morning lows are expected to be in the 20s Monday
and Tuesday, but back above freezing by Wednesday. Another cold
front is expected Wednesday resulting in subfreezing temperatures
again Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFs/

SHRAs and embedded TSRAs continue north of JBR at this hour along
a warm front. The front will push back south as a cold front this
afternoon with prevailing SHRAs and scattered TSRAs. CIGs will
drop to MVFR/IFR by this afternoon, with a downward trend expected
after sundown. Post frontal SHRAs should end around midnight. A
round of mixed precipitation will arrive Sunday morning as the
backside of the trough pivots through the region. It is not
expected to stick, but could create some issues at MEM.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through this afternoon for Clay-Craighead-Crittenden-
     Cross-Greene-Mississippi-Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...Flood Watch through this afternoon for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Flood Watch through this afternoon for Benton TN-Carroll-Chester-
     Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-Hardin-
     Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-McNairy-
     Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
549 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-021400-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
549 AM CST Sat Jan 1 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today. Damaging
winds, tornadoes, and hail will be the main threats. Storms will
also bring prolonged heavy rainfall which could lead to flash
flooding. A Flood Watch has been issued for much of Northeast
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and all of West Tennessee.

Winds will be elevated today across north Mississippi. A Wind
Advisory has been issued.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Much colder air will filter into the region behind a cold front
Saturday Night. An upper level disturbance will then move into
the Mid-South by Sunday morning. Chances for snow will occur with
the disturbance. No accumulation is expected. Wind chill values
will drop into the teens Sunday and Sunday Night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Today. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while
following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

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