Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Memphis, TN

813 
WGUS74 KMEG 231037
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
437 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022

MSC095-231047-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220223T1045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Monroe MS-
437 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHERN MONROE COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CST for a portion of 
North Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3381 8872 3392 8823 3374 8825 3375 8832
      3372 8833 3369 8837 3369 8840 3367 8842
      3366 8850 3365 8851 3367 8849 3368 8872

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1127 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 06Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 826 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022/

UPDATE...
Active weather across the forecast area through Friday morning. A
Tornado Watch remains in effect for portions of north Mississippi
through midnight. Rain and thunderstorms will continue into the
overnight hours before ending Wednesday morning. Then the
attention turns to winter weather as ice looks like a good bet for
the northwest portions of our forecast area. Winter Storm
Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for
portions of the region. Areas in the warned area could see ice
accumulations of a quarter to half inch. Please stay tuned to the
forecast for any changes.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 530 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022/

DISCUSSION... Active weather pattern continues across the
Midsouth, beginning with a Slight Risk of severe storms over north
MS into the early evening. Mixed layer CAPE of less than 750
J/kg, veering prefrontal surface winds, and marginal midlevel
lapse will limit severe threat. Deep layer bulk shear and frontal
convergence will sufficient to at least maintain storms into the
evening, or at least until the surface outflow exits northeast MS.

A potential ice storm Wednesday night over northeast AR and the
MO delta remains the primary forecast concern. Pressure gradient
in the Arctic air over MO appears a bit stronger than yesterday's
guidance suggested. The cold, dense air may drain down the delta
and outrun any model-depicted cold advection. The official
forecast is several degrees colder than NBM. With expected QPF,
ice up to four tenths of an inch will be possible north of
Jonesboro. Limiting the expected ice accumulation somewhat, may be
initially warm ground, and large droplet moderate rain rates. If
temperatures prevail closer to the warmer NBM, forecasted amounts
will be too high. After coordinating with NWS Little Rock,
Springfield and Paducah, and given the potential to err too warm
on temps over the delta, have decided to go straight to a Winter
Storm Warning. An Ice Storm Warning was considered, but there may
be some sleet accompanying freezing rain, particularly after
sunrise Thursday. Strengthening warm advection Thursday afternoon
is expected, in advance of a deep upper trof over the central
plains. This warm advection will occur a few thousand feet aloft,
at least initially. Surface winds may back to the east, pulling in
enough above-freezing air to melt ice. How far north up the delta
this melting occurs Thursday afternoon is another forecast
challenge, but it does appear favorable for most of northeast AR
and the MO bootheel. If this scenario does not pan out, the Winter
Storm Warning will need to be extended.

The upstream trof over the plains will lift into the mid-MS River
valley Thursday night, finally kicking precip east of the Midsouth.
A quick change-over from rain to sleet and snow will be possible
before this system departs.

Following a short break Friday, a southern branch wave will likely
bring additional rain on Saturday, with a light snow/rain mixture
possible along the back edge as it departs.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF cycle

Mainly IFR ceilings will continue for most of the forecast period.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across much of
north Mississippi overnight. Rain will return to western sections
of the Mid-South by Wednesday afternoon and spread across the
remainder of the region by Wednesday evening. Some freezing rain
is expected over northwest sections of the Mid-South including the
KJBR area Wednesday night. Winds will be mainly from the north at
10 to 15 knots overnight before shifting to the northeast on
Wednesday.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 PM CST Thursday
     for Crittenden-Cross.

     Winter Storm Warning from noon Wednesday to 6 PM CST Thursday
     for Clay-Craighead-Greene-Mississippi-Poinsett.

MO...Winter Storm Warning from noon Wednesday to 6 PM CST Thursday
     for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Wednesday for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 PM CST Thursday
     for Dyer-Lauderdale-Tipton.

     Winter Storm Warning from noon Wednesday to 6 PM CST Thursday
     for Lake-Obion-Weakley.

     Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Wednesday for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Decatur-Fayette-Hardeman-Hardin-Henderson-Madison-
     McNairy.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
323 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-232330-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
323 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms through early evening
over north central and northeast Mississippi, and portions of
southwest Tennessee near the Tennessee River. Primary risks
include damaging winds and flash flooding. Secondary risks
include short-lived tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Freezing rain, possibly mixed with sleet will be likely over
northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and far northwest
Tennessee Wednesday afternoon through through late morning or
early afternoon Thursday. Ice accumulations up to four tenths of
an inch will be possible north and northeast of Jonesboro. Sleet
accumulations are expected to total a tenth of an inch or less.

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Wednesday night into
early Thursday over portions of west Tennessee, mainly along and
north of Interstate 40.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through early this evening over
north Mississippi and portions of southwest Tennessee near the
Tennessee River.

PWB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
750 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

MSZ006-017-230215-
Itawamba MS-Tishomingo MS-
750 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Itawamba
and southeastern Tishomingo Counties through 815 PM CST...

At 750 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mantachie, or near Fulton, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fulton, Belmont, Mantachie, Fairview, Sandy Springs, Clay, Golden,
Eastman, Dennis, Moores Mill and Bounds Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CST for northeastern
Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 8818 3422 8843 3438 8854 3447 8839
      3446 8833 3450 8833 3461 8814
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 241DEG 41KT 3434 8841

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

SWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
957 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 WSW NEW HAMILTON      33.70N  88.57W
02/22/2022                   MONROE             MS   UTILITY COMPANY

            THREE POWER POLES BROKEN ON STRONG ROAD.

&&

MJH