Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1234 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 AM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022

Currently across the Mid-South, most areas remain dry. There are
some showers and thunderstorms riding along a quasi-stationary
surface boundary that is parallel to I-40 and will continue to
slide east-southeast through the afternoon. The rest of the area
could see some diurnal showers and thunderstorms pop up this
afternoon. We could see some locally heavy rainfall and some
strong wind gusts. This shower activity should wane at sunset.
Temperatures expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. Made minor
adjustments to POPs to account for current activity. Otherwise no
other changes were made. Previous forecast remains on track.

SMW

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022

A quiet night is underway across the Mid-South. Latest KNQA radar
sweep reveals a couple light showers moving across the northern
Missouri Bootheel at this hour. The rest of the area is dry with
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Light fog is being
reported at nearly every airport this morning, but high cirrus
clouds have negated the necessity for a dense fog advisory for
now. Aloft, GOES water vapor imagery shows an elongated trough,
now centered over northeast Texas, with a large ridge of high
pressure over the Great Basin.

The aforementioned trough will remain overhead through Wednesday,
before cutting off from the main flow and meandering south to the
Gulf Coast by late week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
fire up again this afternoon, with better coverage than yesterday.
Convective activity will be primarily driven by peak heating
again on Wednesday. Expect highs in the 80s each day with lows
around 70 degrees.

The trough will cutoff and dive south on Thursday. This will
place the Mid-South in the dry slot and draw dry air south into
the region. The cutoff low is expected to pivot back northward on
Friday and bring the threat of showers and thunderstorms back to
the region for much of the weekend.

The pesky upper low will finally fill on Sunday. However, another
deepening upper low over the Central Plains will move in right behind.
The good news is that the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement
with a cold front pushing into Mid-South on Monday as this upper
low dives southeast. This will likely be the best chance of
widespread rainfall for the Mid-South during this period and our
first teaser of fall.

The upper low looks to stall over the Lower Mississippi Valley
next week. This will translate to increased cloud cover and cooler
temperatures over the region for next week. Highs will be in the lower
80s for highs and lows in the lower 60s. Stay tuned.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022

Isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed mostly
over portions of W TN due to a stalled surface boundary and
convective initiation temperatures being reached. Best potential
for VCTS will be at MKL/TUP/MEM and perhaps VCSH at JBR. Activity
expected to weaken/dissipate early this evening with the loss of
daytime instability. Low stratus/fog potential will be greatest at
TUP, and perhaps affecting MKL resulting in the potential for IFR
conditions to develop. Otherwise, patchy fog may affect JBR late
tonight towards sunrise and VFR conditions expected through the
period outside of tonight and any convective activity. Light winds
through the period.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...35
AVIATION...CJC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
531 AM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-071245-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
531 AM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Slow moving showers and thunderstorms may result in localized
flooding.

Patchy dense fog will be possible again overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

AC3