Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
618 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022

Area radars show convection has developed along the dryline, and
will affect mainly KMAF/KFST for the next couple of hours...mainly
w/erratic outflows. Cold front will come through later tonight,
w/both the NAM and GFS suggesting a few hours of MVFR cigs KMAF
Monday morning when the front moves through. Northerly post-
frontal winds will continue through the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022

The focus in the near-term will be the chances for severe
convection  stretching from the western Low Rolling Plains south
to the southeastern Permian Basin this evening. Overall reasoning
hasn't changed much since the early afternoon mesoscale
discussion, so I won't belabor the points made there other than to
say that the threats and impacts are, in order, 1) gusty
downburst winds to 70 mph along with attendant blowing dust, 2)
lightning, and 3) hail to the size of quarters or less. We expect
this activity to wane after sunset and move eastward and out over
the Big Country/Concho River valley regions of west central Texas.

A minor short wave trough will pass over the southern Rockies and
central plains states through the next 36 hours. Passage of this
trough will drag a weak frontal boundary into the northeastern
Permian Basin late tonight, with this front becoming diffuse and
lifting northeastward during the afternoon hours tomorrow. There's
not a huge temperature gradient associated with this boundary by
the time it gets down here, so lows will range from the mid 40s
across northern Lea County NM to around 60 across the lower Trans
Pecos and along the Rio Grande. Monday, we should see some low
clouds inhibit insolation over the western Low Rolling Hills,
leading to a decent temperature gradient across the CWA from south
to north, with highs near 70 expected up around Colorado City to
the upper 90s at Rio Grande Village at Big Bend National Park.
Lows Monday night will be moderated some by an uptick in wind,
with lows in the 40s and 50s forecast. A stronger system will
begin to impact the central and southern Plains states just beyond
the short term with earth, wind, and fire the predominant hazards.
More on this below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through  Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022

After a brief respite from the warm temperatures on Monday, well
above normal temperatures will return areawide on Tuesday as
downsloping westerly flow develops in response to a lee trough to
the north of the region beneath a deepening midlevel trough
progged to dive out of the Northern Rockies into the Plains by
midweek. During the day Tuesday, northwesterly flow aloft will
transition to a more quasizonal flow, and while the primary jet
associated with the aforementioned trough will be located across
the Central Plains, a tightening pressure gradient to its south
will yield breezy to windy conditions Tuesday afternoon through
Tuesday evening, especially across the Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains and the adjacent plains of Southeast New Mexico and
Southwest Texas. While these winds do not look to be as strong as
other recent storm systems that have impacted the region due to
the northward displacement of the jet core, severe winds still
look likely across the mountains, thus have issued a High Wind
Watch for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains on Tuesday. As
downslope warming yields high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above
normal in the upper 80s to mid 90s for most Tuesday afternoon, the
boundary layer will dry significantly with critical RHs expected
across the region. This will lead to another day of widespread
critical fire weather conditions, and more on this can be found in
the Fire Weather Discussion below.

Tuesday night, a strong cold front will move into the area,
progged to reach the Pecos River by daybreak Wednesday. The
front will be accompanied by a sharp northerly wind shift, with
gusty conditions expected for several hours after the initial
frontal passage. Currently, it looks like the front will stall out
in the vicinity of the higher terrain Wednesday afternoon, though
a secondary push Wednesday night will help the front to clear the
entire region by Thursday morning. Thus, after the unseasonably
warm day on Tuesday, Wednesday looks to be noticeably cooler,
especially for locations east of the mountains where highs will
only reach the 70s to around 80 degrees for most. Thursday will be
even cooler under the influence of continued cold advection and
northerly surface flow beneath northerly flow aloft, with well
below normal temperatures in the 60s and 70s across the area.
Below normal temperatures will continue Friday, with a warming
trend expected through the weekend as weak midlevel ridging
develops Saturday, with highs rebounding above normal into the 80s
for most both Saturday and Sunday. Unfortunately for our
worsening drought, the extended forecast remains dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue into this evening
across western portions of the area extending from the Chaves
Plains and Sacramento Foothills south to the Davis Mountains where
slightly stronger 20ft winds will yield increased fire weather
concerns. Elsewhere, RHs this afternoon are expected to drop to
around 8-15% for all but the far eastern Permian Basin and
portions of the Stockton Plateau, thus despite lighter winds, fuel
conditions (ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile) IA potential
remains high. Of additional concern this afternoon are high-based
thunderstorms that are expected to develop across portions of the
Trans Pecos and Permian Basin, moving eastward toward the Concho
Valley and Big Country through tonight. The primary concerns with
these storms are gusty downburst winds and frequent lightning,
which could yield potential fire starts and exacerbate ongoing
fire weather conditions. While rainfall will of course be
possible, amounts remain light, with low confidence in any
locations receiving substantial wetting rains.

A cold front will move into the area tonight resulting in a
northeasterly wind shift and cooler temperatures for locations
along and north/east of the Pecos River, relegating fire weather
concerns Monday to locations roughly from Van Horn and the Davis
Mountains south to the Rio Grande. RFTIs in these areas will range
from 3-4, thus another Fire Danger Statement looks likely for
Monday. Fire weather concerns increase substantially on Tuesday as
westerly winds increase areawide, with widespread single-digit
RHs and temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal. This will yield
RFTIs ranging from 5-7 across a large portion of the region, along
with very high/extreme fire danger. Thus, a Fire Weather Watch
remains in effect for the entire region.

Tuesday night, a strong cold front will move into the area
resulting in a sharp shift to gusty north winds, as well as
cooler, below normal temperatures Wednesday through Friday.
Despite the cooler temperatures, it will remain very dry across
the area, with critical RHs expected through the weekend. This
will yield at least intermittent elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions through the end of the week as fuels continue
to dry with no additional rainfall expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               54  71  47  90 /  20  40  10   0
Carlsbad                 48  73  47  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   59  88  55  93 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            56  78  54  90 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           48  70  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    46  70  45  87 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                    43  76  41  82 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     55  74  48  90 /  10  30   0   0
Odessa                   56  75  50  89 /  10  20   0   0
Wink                     50  77  46  91 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster County-Chinati
     Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower
     Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-
     Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....84
AVIATION...44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
215 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-041915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
215 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022 /115 PM MDT Sun Apr 3 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon and
this evening, mainly across southeastern New Mexico.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, mainly over the Stockton Plateau, eastern Permian Basin,
and Western Low Rolling Plains. Any severe storms that do develop
will be accompanied by large hail and damaging winds. Blowing dust
may also occur in and near thunderstorm activity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Critical fire weather conditions possible Monday and Tuesday, and a
Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the entire region Tuesday
afternoon through early evening.

A High Wind Watch is in effect Tuesday for the Guadalupe Mountains of
west Texas and southeastern New Mexico.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested late this afternoon through this
evening.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

70

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
517 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022

TXZ068-069-075-032300-
Pecos TX-Crane TX-Upton TX-
517 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Pecos,
southeastern Crane and west central Upton Counties through 600 PM
CDT...

At 517 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southwest of Crane, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Crane, King Mountain, Cordona Lake and Crane County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3125 10258 3139 10263 3143 10229 3121 10223
      3117 10243
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 269DEG 13KT 3131 10254

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

16

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022

TXZ068-069-032345-
Crane TX-Upton TX-
601 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Crane
and southern Upton Counties through 645 PM CDT...

At 600 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Crane, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Crane, Rankin and King Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3125 10237 3142 10234 3139 10188 3112 10193
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 278DEG 16KT 3131 10226

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

16

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
649 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022

TXZ069-040030-
Upton TX-
649 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Upton
County through 730 PM CDT...

At 648 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Rankin, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and up to half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
McCamey, Rankin and Upton County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3108 10190 3109 10230 3113 10230 3139 10224
      3144 10178 3132 10177
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 264DEG 34KT 3121 10206

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

16