Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
151 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

Still have a few MVFR cigs lingering but everything trending
toward VFR. Weak front and outflow boundaries sagging into the
area will push through overnight. Afternoon and evening storms
possible with HOB and MAF closest TAF sites.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

A closed low forms today over Ern CO/NE NM with the trough
extending southward across NM and Far WT. Tonight this low will
move into Wrn KS/OK and roll across the rest of the state
Wednesday.

A late season front and outflows from overnight storms to the
north will push across the area this afternoon and evening. Lows
tonight will be in the 40s north... 50s central... 60s south.
Temps Wednesday will be unusually cool for this time of year in
post frontal conditions with highs in the 70s and 80s.

Currently have a slight risk of severe storms that includes
portions of SE NM and most of the Permian Basin. Models develop
storms that come down across Lea county late this afternoon into
the northern Permian Basin. Scurry and Mitchell will have the best
chance for rain. Currently have storms near ROW that could be the
start of it. Some storms could become severe with large hail and
damaging wind. Locally heavy rain will also be possible as MAF 12z
sounding had PW up to 0.93 inch. No rain expected Wednesday.

The front will squeeze through GDP late this afternoon and evening
and a High Wind Warning is in effect.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through  Monday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

Hot and dry will be the story Thursday through the Memorial Day
Weekend, as ridging develops eastward over the region coincident
with increasing southerly return flow at the surface. Highs
Thursday  will rebound above normal into the upper 80s and lower
to mid 90s for most, with the warming trend continuing into the
weekend. A trough progressing from the Pacific Northwest into the
Rockies Saturday will flatten the ridge somewhat as the ridge
shifts east, resulting in a transition to quasizonal/southwesterly
flow aloft over Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Dry,
downslope southwesterly flow will yield our hottest temperatures
of the forecast this weekend, with widespread highs in the lower
100s Saturday and Sunday, with potential Heat Advisory conditions
across a large swath of the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and Rio
Grande Valley. Temperatures Monday will cool slightly as 850mb
temperatures fall several degrees in response to a deepening
trough over the western CONUS, though highs will still top out in
the upper 90s and lower 100s areawide. Thus, those with outdoor
plans this holiday weekend will need to plan accordingly, as heat-
related illnesses will be a major concern.

Thereafter, the pattern becomes increasingly amplified as ridging
strengthens over the eastern CONUS and the longwave trough remains
entrenched to the west. Temperatures locally will slowly cool
through midweek next week as moisture increases over the area,
though will still remain at least a few degrees above normal. The
return of precipitation chances will depend entirely on the
evolution and eventual progression of the aforementioned trough to
the west, and for now, the next chance for rain looks to be next
Wednesday. Until then, dry conditions will persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

Critical fire weather conditions will continue through early this
evening for locations across Culberson county (including the
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains) and Reeves county south across
the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau. The dryline will remain
east of these areas this afternoon, with westerly winds around
20-30mph coincident with RHs below 10%. A cold front will move
through the area early this evening accompanied by a sharp
northerly to northeasterly wind shift, reaching Southeast New
Mexico and the northern Permian Basin around 23Z/600PM CDT, I-10
by around 02Z/900PM CDT, and the Rio Grande by 05Z/12AM CDT.
Elevated and gusty winds will continue for a few hours post-front,
with winds then becoming light overnight. In the wake of this
cold front, below normal temperatures are expected Wednesday,
before a warming trend begins Thursday. Fire weather concerns look
to be mitigated Wednesday and Thursday before increasing again
Friday and especially through the weekend as increasing westerly
to southwesterly winds develop along with well above normal
temperatures in the 90s and 100s, yielding RHs in the single
digits nearly areawide both Saturday and Sunday. Aside from
thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening, the forecast
through early next week remains dry. Storms that develop today and
tonight will be accompanied by lightning and gusty, erratic
winds, and some wetting rains may also be possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               51  77  55  91 /  30   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 47  79  52  92 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   60  85  61  92 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            52  80  58  94 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           45  76  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    45  77  51  89 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    45  79  46  91 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     51  79  57  91 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                   50  79  58  91 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                     50  80  54  93 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Reeves
     County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Wednesday for
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....84
AVIATION...72

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
152 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-251900-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
152 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 /1252 PM MDT Tue May 24 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening across portions of Southeast New Mexico and most of the
Permian Basin. Large hail and damaging wind are the main concerns.
Brief heavy rainfall will also be possible.

Dry and windy conditions expected across the west... A Red Flag
Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and
adjacent plains this afternoon and evening.

A High Wind Warning is in effect for Guadalupe pass this afternoon
and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Widespread critical fire weather is expected Saturday through
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening east of a
Maljamar to McCamey line.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
540 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             4 NNE MIDLAND           32.05N 102.05W
05/24/2022  M1.50 INCH       MIDLAND            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

SAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
543 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             5 NE MIDLAND            32.05N 102.01W
05/24/2022  E1.75 INCH       MIDLAND            TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: GOLF BALL (1.75 IN.).

&&

SAK