Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
629 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

Scattered -SHRA/TS is developing across the area. Any location
might see TS on station but have left mention in only PEQ/FST
where confidence is highest. Amendments may be needed especially
at INK/HOB. Otherwise VFR conditions will continue with gusty
winds diminishing overnight, then becoming gusty after 15Z again
tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

An upper level trough is over the western part of the country with
mostly westerly upper winds over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico. Gusty south to southeast winds are across the area advecting
in plentiful low-level moisture. Dewpoints in the 60s are expected
across most of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos this
afternoon. CAPE values of 2,000 to 3,000+ J/kg are expected across
the above mentioned area this afternoon. Zero to six km bulk shear
will generally range from 20 to 40 kts this afternoon with fairly
high mid-level lapse rates. Upper lift will be enhanced over the
area this afternoon and evening from the upper trough to the west.
All of these conditions, along with a dryline, will allow for a
chance of severe thunderstorms across much of the area this
afternoon and evening. The main threats with these storms will be
large hail, damaging winds, and brief heavy rain. High temperatures
today will mostly be in the 90s.

Low temperatures tonight will mostly be in the 60s and 70s. The
upper trough will lift to the northeast on Thursday. A dryline will
be present across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos Thursday
afternoon. Moisture tomorrow will not be quite as high east of the
dryline as today and upper lift may not be as high as today.
However, storms may develop from the Davis Mountains into Pecos
County and will likely become strong to severe. High temperatures
will mostly be in the 90s Thursday afternoon. Low temperatures
Thursday night will range from the 50s to the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through  Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

Friday, zonal flow aloft will transition to northwest as an upper
ridge strengthens over Baja Del Sur.  A cold front will attempt an
intrusion on the CWA, but advancement will be minimal and largely
confined to our first tier of northern counties.  It will, however,
set up a warm sector over the southeast half of the CWA, opening a
window for isolated convection, mainly in the afternoon. NAM
forecast soundings develop mucapes in excess of 2000 J/kg, mid-level
lapse rates of 7-8 C/km, deep layer shear 30-40kts, and dry subcloud
layers yielding dcapes of 1500 J/kg or better, all for a continued
chance of severe storms.  The front won't affect already
unseasonably warm temperatures, and will shave a degree or two off
highs in the north at best.

Saturday, dirty ridging begins building into West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, resulting in a gradual increase in thicknesses
into next week.  This will result in triple-digits returning outside
of the Rio Grande Valley as soon as Sunday afternoon, and increasing
through Wednesday, which looks to be the hottest day this forecast
at this time.  Long range models hint at bringing an upper trough
and associated convection through the region Tuesday, but the NBM is
pessimistic at this time and, considering the drought we're in,
we'll keep the grids dry for now.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

Thursday, the LLTR is forecast to set up from near the Presidio
Valley up through the Central Plains, with a 40+kt mid-level jet
running from south central New Mexico up through the Panhandles.
This, combined with single-digit RH and modest 20-ft westerlies will
yield RFTI of 4+ over Southeast New Mexico and Culberson County,
coincident with ERCs of 90th+ percentile, for critical fire weather
conditions there.

However, current observations/mesoanalysis shows the dryline backed
up all the way west of KGDP, with moderate to excellent recovery
forecast overnight.  Convection is forecast along the dryline this
afternoon, and areas receiving rainfall later today will get a break
from critical fire weather tomorrow if rainfall is sufficient.  For
these reasons, we're reluctant to issue a watch/warning for Thursday
attm.

Beyond Thursday, critical fire weather/RFTI will increase in
coverage each day as temperatures rise, but rather tepid 20-ft winds
and CIPS SGPWO guidance suggest the fire threat will be more
elevated than anything else.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71  96  67  92 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                 62  96  55  94 /  20  10   0   0
Dryden                   70  94  69  92 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            68  98  66  94 /  20  20  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           63  88  60  88 /  20   0   0   0
Hobbs                    62  94  56  92 /  30  10  10  10
Marfa                    55  93  53  90 /  30  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     69  96  66  94 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                   70  96  67  94 /  20  10  10  10
Wink                     66  98  61  96 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...80
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1101 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-121615-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
1101 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022 /1001 AM MDT Wed May 11 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a slight risk of severe storms through this evening, mainly
from the northwest Permian Basin through the Stockton Plateau. Any
severe storms that do develop will be accompanied by large hail,
damaging winds, and an isolated tornado.

A Fire Danger Statement is in effect through early evening for
elevated fire weather conditions across most of Southeast New Mexico
and areas of West Texas just to the south.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a marginal risk of severe storms Thursday and Friday.  Any
severe storms that do develop will be accompanied by large hail and
damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
529 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

TXZ279-281-282-112315-
Central Brewster County TX-Presidio Valley TX-
Lower Brewster County TX-
529 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Brewster and southeastern Presidio Counties through 615 PM CDT...

At 528 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lajitas, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lajitas, Terlingua, Study Butte and Barton Warnock Environmental
Educational Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2919 10371 2918 10372 2923 10376 2922 10378
      2924 10378 2925 10377 2927 10379 2926 10380
      2927 10381 2927 10383 2928 10387 2949 10360
      2927 10343 2917 10367
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 236DEG 11KT 2925 10375

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

84

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

TXZ279-282-120015-
Central Brewster County TX-Lower Brewster County TX-
610 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Brewster County through 715 PM CDT...

At 609 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles northwest of Panther Junction, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Persimmon Gap, Big Bend National Park, Terlingua Ranch Airport and
Terlingua Ranch Lodge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2936 10344 2950 10352 2976 10317 2953 10300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 236DEG 18KT 2947 10339

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

84

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