Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
207 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

An upper low INVOF SE AZ will move into western NM overnight.
Meanwhile, the cold front will have moved into the Trans Pecos
area. Post-frontal isentropic ascent still looks to persist
through the night and into Monday afternoon, but does weaken later
Monday Night. The associated upper jet looks to have trended
north some, and accordingly so the NAM12 has decreased QPF. Still,
the pattern is favorable for rain with rich moisture through the
column. The 00Z/16 to 12Z/16 runs of the HREF showed slight
decrease in QPF from the 1-1.25" to 0.75-1" across southeastern
NM/Permian Basin/Lower Trans Pecos through 7 AM Monday. Meanwhile,
the ECMWF has been consistently producing higher QPF than the
morning runs of the HRRR, while NAMBUFR sounding at MAF shows a
completely saturated sounding after 10 PM tonight, so will leave
the Flood Watch in place through at least tonight. Clouds and a
rain-cooled post-frontal air mass will allow for an unseasonably
cold day tomorrow with a narrow diurnal range, and temperatures
mostly hovering in the 50s. Clouds will have a chance to decrease
and/or clear out by Tuesday morning, however residual surface
moisture could favor formation of fog. Otherwise, it will be cool
Tuesday morning with widespread lows in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

The chaotic pattern will finally vacate to the east Tuesday as
the lingering shortwave gets absorbed into the mean longwave
trough centered east of the Mississippi. Lower heights will hang
around for one more day on Tuesday leading to highs generally in
the 60s for much of the region, but a nice return of sunshine. We
see a moderation in temperatures by Wednesday as a large ridge
across the west begins poking into the area with higher heights.
Highs in the 70s and 80s, and lows generally in the 50s, with 40s
to the north return area-wide from Wednesday through the end of
the week. Another meandering low off of Baja will be the next
disturbance to watch as guidance toys with opening the wave and
ejecting it eastward. A lot of details to parse with the system,
so will not mention much beyond Saturday. The one guarantee is the
weather will shift to quiet and mild for most of the forecast
period, considering how we start the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Widespread precipitation continues across the area as cooler air
filters in behind this morning's cold frontal passage. While some
VFR conditions will occasionally occur, lowering ceilings and
visibility in precipitation will result in primarily MVFR/IFR
conditions at TAF sites through the rest of the day and into the
overnight hours. Winds will continue to be gusty at times from the
north and northeast behind the cold front with occasional gusts of
20 to 25 knots. Will continue to mention thunder in the TAFs
through the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               52  58  48  65 / 100  80  20   0
Carlsbad                 51  55  48  62 / 100  60  30   0
Dryden                   60  64  52  62 /  90  90  40  10
Fort Stockton            54  58  48  62 / 100  90  30   0
Guadalupe Pass           46  51  44  55 /  90  50  30   0
Hobbs                    49  55  45  63 /  90  80  20   0
Marfa                    49  57  41  58 /  80  70  30  10
Midland Intl Airport     52  56  48  63 / 100  90  20   0
Odessa                   53  56  48  63 / 100  90  20   0
Wink                     53  58  47  63 /  90  70  30   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Monday morning for Andrews-Borden-Crane-
     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern
     Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-
     Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County
     Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 2 AM CDT Monday for Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains.

NM...Flood Watch through Monday morning for Central Lea County-Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern
     Lea County-Southern Lea County.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
317 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-172030-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
317 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022 /217 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rainfall, are expected
to continue through tonight with the potential for flash flooding. A
Flood Watch is in effect for most of the area today and tonight. In
addition a High Wind Warning is in effect late this afternoon through
this evening for Guadalupe Pass.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland