Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
622 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022

Another round of showers and storms will roll across southern
portions of the region this afternoon and evening as a final
shortwave moves across the area. Heavy rainfall is still a
possibility, especially since the locations that will be affected
have seen flooding the last couple of days. We have seen enough
heating across the Davis/Glass Mountains and surrounding areas that
we could see a few stronger storms that contain small hail and gusty
winds through the evening. Otherwise, clouds and precip have kept it
more stable across the Permian Basin so it is not likely we will see
heavy rain there. Will trim the Flood Watch further to areas south
of I-20 where the higher threat of flooding remains.

The upper trough that brought the wet weather the last few days
weakens and shifts east Tuesday. An isolated shower or storm are
possible as the trough exits, mainly over the eastern half of the
region Tuesday. With more sun we will see warmer temperatures with
most locations seeing highs in the 80's. With moisture sticking
around lows will stay above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022

Mid to late week will be pretty uneventful as weak ridging and
increasing thickness rebound temperatures to slightly above normal.
A weak front looks to approach the region Wednesday as a large upper
trough moves across the Mid-West, but the front should only cool
high temperatures a degree or two and switch surface winds out of
the north briefly Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, Wed-Fri will look
very similar with mostly clear skies, highs in the upper 70s to low
80s, and mainly light winds.

A big change looks to occur late Friday as an upper low moves across
Southern California. This system may be our next rain maker, and
will be something to keep an eye on as it moves eastward through the
weekend. Models continue to be in disagreement in regards to the
movement of this low and how much precipitation is expected,
although there is better alignment on rainfall beginning Saturday.
Similar to what we saw over the weekend, storms will begin out west
and over the higher terrain Saturday, becoming more widespread and
covering much of the CWA on Sunday and Monday.

A backdoor cold front is set to arrive Sunday as a trough with very
cold air moves across the Great Lakes region. This front will cool
temperatures from the 80s on Saturday down to 70s on Sunday and
potentially even the 60s on Monday. If models continue to be as
aggressive with this front and the cold air behind it, we may have a
chilly start to next week!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022

Severe TS currently over KFST with gusts over 50kts experienced
within the last 10 min. Storm moving east over I-10 corridor with
large hail up to golf ball sized. Cell moving east will impact
terminal the next hour before moving away. Sct SHRA/TS still
behind severe cell, so high impact expected through 00z. VFR
conditions expected by 01z, but monitoring for lingering TS.
Remainder of terminals VFR prevailing thru TAF cycle. Winds
generally <12kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               60  81  62  82 /  30  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 54  80  55  80 /  20   0   0   0
Dryden                   60  82  62  89 /  50  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            57  82  59  84 /  40  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           52  70  55  74 /  20   0   0   0
Hobbs                    55  78  55  78 /  20  10   0   0
Marfa                    49  75  48  79 /  60  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     59  79  60  81 /  30  10   0   0
Odessa                   59  79  60  81 /  30  10   0   0
Wink                     57  81  55  83 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Central Brewster County-
     Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Terrell-
     Upton-Ward.

NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...87

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
153 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-111900-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
153 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022 /1253 PM MDT Mon Oct 10 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible. Any storms that develop will be
accompanied by frequent lightning, small hail, gusty winds, and
brief, heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch is in effect for parts of West
Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
303 PM MDT Mon Oct 10 2022

NMZ028-102145-
Eddy County Plains NM-
303 PM MDT Mon Oct 10 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Eddy
County through 345 PM MDT...

At 303 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northwest of Hope, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hope and Artesia Municipal Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 10484 3297 10436 3273 10457 3283 10484
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 278DEG 22KT 3295 10483

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

87

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
435 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022

TXZ075-274-277-278-102215-
Pecos TX-Reeves County Plains TX-Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
Davis Mountains TX-
435 PM CDT Mon Oct 10 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Pecos, south
central Reeves and east central Jeff Davis Counties through 515 PM
CDT...

At 435 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Balmorhea State Park, or 15 miles northeast of Fort
Davis, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Star Mountain.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 222 and 232.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3069 10384 3086 10389 3102 10334 3076 10327
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 256DEG 26KT 3080 10379

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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