Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
642 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

...Big Changes on the way for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico...

WV imagery shows fairly zonal flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico this afternoon, with an upper ridge over old
Mexico.  Area radars show convection already developing over the
Davis Mountains, where mesoanalysis shows mucapes of 3000 J/kg or
so, and no cap.  Highs will top out in the 90s most locations this
afternoon, w/ensembles suggesting that today may be the warmest day
the rest of the year.

Convection will keep developing this afternoon, from the Davis
Mountains northeast as models bring a shortwave through the top of
the ridge, w/best chances extending through the northwest Permian
Basin.  A 30kt LLJ is forecast to develop after sundown, and this,
along w/ample cloud cover, will keep overnight lows well above
normal.  This LLJ will advect plentiful Gulf moisture into the area,
w/70F dewpoints as far NW as KMAF by late Monday morning.

Monday, the upper ridge is forecast to develop north into the
southwest CONUS, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under
northeast flow aloft.  Dewpoints will mix out a little during the
day, but not much.  Models bring a shortwave down the eastern
periphery of the ridge, to Southeast New Mexico by 00Z Tuesday. This
will send thicknesses down, shaving a couple of degrees off today's
highs.  CAMs develop convection first in the Davis Mountains, but
also north over the South Plains as the shortwave and a cold front
approach the CWA.

Monday night, return flow surges ahead of the cold front, w/PWATs
increasing to up to 2 std devs above normal in the Permian Basin.
The NAM increases PWAT at KMAF to 1.8" by 06Z, which is off the
climatological charts.  NBM ramps up POPs significantly, but
considering the shortwave and cold front, this does not seem
unreasonable.  This will set the stage for Tuesday, which looks to
be the main event, the details of which are below.  Lows will come
down a few degrees Tuesday night, but will nevertheless remain above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through  Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

The beginning of the period starts with a setup we have been
desperately looking for since August of last year. Guidance is in
agreement on the s/w pinching off the longwave trough sweeping
through the plains, cutting south over NM and establishing its
presence as an inverted trough centered over E NM and W TX. The
result is a prevailing NE flow with formidable moisture advection
allowing for a deep layer moisture signature as noted by 12z GFS
soundings across all zones, especially the Stockton/Marfa
Plateau's and Permian Basin. Areal PWAT indices are forecast off
the climatological scale meaning we are starring at a formidable
rain event in our neck of the woods. With a strong agreement in
the environment and evolution of the 700-500mb pattern, have
brought PoPs up considerably with NBM agreement.

Local QPF max over the Hwy 90 corridor is consistent with the
current setup with 2-4" of rain not out of the question for those
in that vicinity. Elsewhere, a widespread 1-3" of rainfall is
increasingly likely given the environment and likely efficient
rainfall processes within the rich moisture field. Scattered
thunderstorms will be embedded within the overall rainfall axis as
forecast soundings indicate enough instability within the mid-
levels to produce some thunder. Highest rainfall chances will
occur on Tue/Wed with a slow scaling back on Thu/Fri, although
storm chances will continue to be >20% for a bulk of the forecast
area.

Temperature wise will trend below normal with widespread 70s and
80s likely the entire long term period. Given the high probability
of cloud cover and precipitation, it would not take much for the
current forecast to adjust down a bit further for portions of the
Permian Basin and SE NM, so will monitor the trends to see if we
need to adjust down further. Low temperatures will remain mild,
albeit cooler than what we've had in previous weeks. Considering
RHs around 65-70F, it will be tough to dip too far below normal,
but it'll feel nice having some moisture for a change!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

Scattered thunderstorms continue this evening across the region,
with impacts most likely seen at MAF/INK as well as a chance at
HOB/PEQ. Gusty, erratic winds along with patchy blowing dust will be
possible near storms before activity diminishes in the next few
hours. Rain/dust may brief bring MAF/INK to MVFR conditions,
otherwise, all sites will remain VFR throughout the forecast
period. Winds will all return to southerly overnight at all
terminals, remaining mostly light. South to southeast winds will
continue tomorrow afternoon with scattered storms expected across
the region once again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75  95  71  83 /  20  30  60  80
Carlsbad                 70  95  68  81 /  20  50  60  70
Dryden                   74  94  74  84 /  20  20  40  80
Fort Stockton            73  94  70  80 /  20  40  50  80
Guadalupe Pass           68  86  63  74 /  30  50  50  70
Hobbs                    70  93  68  79 /  30  50  70  80
Marfa                    63  86  63  75 /  40  70  60  80
Midland Intl Airport     74  93  70  81 /  30  30  60  80
Odessa                   74  93  71  80 /  40  30  60  80
Wink                     74  94  70  82 /  30  40  60  80

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...16

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
158 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-291900-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
158 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022 /1258 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible, mainly from the Presidio Valley through
the Davis Mountains to the northwest Permian Basin. Any storms that
do develop will be accompanied by frequent lightning, small hail,
gusty winds, and brief, heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms are possible Monday through Friday. Widespread
rainfall will occur on Tuesday and Wednesday with a heightened chance
of flash flooding due to persistent rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
631 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

TXZ046-050-051-061-062-290015-
Midland TX-Martin TX-Dawson TX-Andrews TX-Ector TX-
631 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern
Glasscock, northeastern Ector, eastern Andrews, northern Midland,
southeastern Gaines, western Martin and southwestern Dawson Counties
through 715 PM CDT...

At 631 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles west of Lenorah to 12 miles northeast
of Goldsmith. Movement was south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Midland, Odessa, Andrews, Greenwood, Stanton, Midland International
Air and Space Port, West Odessa, Tarzan, Warfield, Midland Airpark,
Courtney, Odessa Schlemeyer Field and Andrews County Airport.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 110 and 156.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3208 10178 3207 10178 3175 10245 3231 10263
      3253 10224 3252 10221 3255 10220 3258 10215
      3209 10177
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 341DEG 19KT 3231 10209 3210 10246

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

91

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
659 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

TXZ069-070-290045-
Reagan TX-Upton TX-
659 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Reagan
and southeastern Upton Counties through 745 PM CDT...

At 659 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of Rankin, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Big Lake, Rankin, Reagan County Airport, Best and Stiles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3108 10202 3142 10197 3144 10157 3108 10137
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 355DEG 11KT 3129 10175

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

91

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
744 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

TXZ050>052-061>063-068>070-290130-
Midland TX-Martin TX-Reagan TX-Andrews TX-Crane TX-Upton TX-Ector TX-
Glasscock TX-Howard TX-
744 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Glasscock, Ector,
southeastern Andrews, Midland, northwestern Reagan, southwestern
Howard, southern Martin, northeastern Crane and northern Upton
Counties through 830 PM CDT...

At 744 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northeast of Stanton to near Greenwood
to near Odessa to 9 miles west of West Odessa. Movement was southeast
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Midland, Odessa, Greenwood, Garden City, Stanton, Goldsmith, Lomax,
Midland International Air and Space Port, West Odessa, Cotton Flat,
Midkiff, Warfield, Midland Airpark, Skywest Airport, Courtney,
Notrees, Odessa Schlemeyer Field, Penwell, Stanton Municipal Aiport
and Spraberry.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 98 and 169.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3196 10132 3161 10166 3146 10201 3141 10246
      3192 10278 3210 10250 3226 10220 3232 10172
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 322DEG 24KT 3223 10174 3198 10196 3181 10232
3181 10265

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

91

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
804 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

TXZ045>047-050>052-290145-
Martin TX-Dawson TX-Andrews TX-Howard TX-Gaines TX-Borden TX-
804 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Andrews, eastern Gaines, western Borden, northwestern Howard,
northern Martin and Dawson Counties through 845 PM CDT...

At 803 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lamesa Municipal Airport, or near Lamesa, moving south at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lamesa, Ackerly, Gail, Lamesa Municipal Airport, Welch, Luther, Los
Ybanez, Loop, Sparenberg, Florey, Punkin Center, Patricia, Arvana,
Hancock, McKenzie Lake, Tenmile, Vealmoor, Key and Klondike.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3244 10260 3296 10250 3296 10146 3244 10134
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 357DEG 25KT 3278 10188

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

16

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
901 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

TXZ060-061-067-068-290245-
Crane TX-Ector TX-Ward TX-Winkler TX-
901 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Ector,
northeastern Ward, southern Winkler and northwestern Crane Counties
through 945 PM CDT...

At 901 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Wink to 8 miles northeast of Monahans. These
storms were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Monahans, Kermit, Wink, Thorntonville, Wickett, Roy Hurd Memorial
Airport, Winkler County Airport and Monahans Sandhills State Park.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 73 and 94.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3161 10334 3148 10260 3184 10276 3194 10320
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 344DEG 4KT 3178 10316 3170 10282

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

91