Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
646 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022

VFR will prevail outside of brief reduced vsbys due to TSRA.
Current area radar shows storms impacting CNM and closing in on
INK and PEQ. Will maintain TEMPOs for TSRA through 02Z-04Z for
those terminals. Elswhere, confidence is too low to mention TSRA,
but will monitor and amd as needed. Winds should remain gusty out
of the ESE this evening and stay elevated at most sites
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022

Early this morning, much of the Permian Basin was impacted by a
line of thunderstorms, bringing continued much needed rains. This
system and corresponding mesoscale-convective vortex have cleared
the area. Surprisingly, very little cloud cover was left over
behind this system and abundant sunshine is expected early this
afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon will largely range
from the upper 80s to low 90s.

Later this afternoon, an approaching shortwave trough rounding
the ridge will initiate thunderstorms across the western higher
terrain. These thunderstorms are expected to slowly grow upscale
and sag southeast through this evening and the early overnight
hours. Much of the Permian Basin will likely be impacted by this
convective system that all convective guidance is forecasting to
develop. This convective system will likely ride along a remnant
outflow boundary from this morning's thunderstorms that is setting
up from Eddy County southeast across the southern half of the
Permian Basin. Low- level moisture and effective shear will be
maximized along and north of this feature, helping maintain
thunderstorm organization. While damaging winds and large hail
will be the main hazards, an isolated tornado can not be
discounted. One potential concern is as the low- level jet ramps
up late this evening, any surface based thunderstorms could pose
an increased tornado risk for a short window before nocturnal
stabilization takes effect. Additionally, torrential rainfall and
localized flooding will be possible with any thunderstorms with
above 90th percentile perceptible water values based on the 12Z
Midland sounding.

This activity will clear the area overnight and by early Saturday
morning most locations will see temperatures in the 60s. As the
shortwave trough exits the region, west winds will develop across
the area, pushing the dryline into our far eastern counties. With
west winds, building heights, and clear skies, temperatures warm
back up quickly with upper 90s and low 100s expected for much of
the area. Late Saturday afternoon and evening, a few thunderstorms
may be possible along and east of the dryline, but thunderstorm
coverage should be sparse and precipitation amounts are expected
to remain light. Temperatures remain mild Saturday night with
moisture sloshing back west corresponding with the low-level jet.
Morning low temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s can be
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through  Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022

The heat returns Sunday with much of the area seeing highs exceed
the century mark. This will be due to surface high pressure moving
east allowing for a more easterly location of the dryline. The low
level thermal ridge will be centered from the Big Bend to the
western Permian Basin with 850 mb temps reaching 32C. These temps
rise to 34C Monday and 35C Tuesday when the hottest high
temperatures are expected. Extrapolating these temps to the
surface yields highs exceeding 105F for most of the Permian Basin,
Trans Pecos, and Rio Grande Valley likely requiring a Heat
Advisory at some point.

An upper level high pressure system develops over central Texas on
Wednesday. Upper and mid level winds then shift from the west to a
light east or southeasterly direction holding the dryline farther
west. With the thermal ridge pushing back to the west, the eastern
half of the CWA will have better access to cooler Gulf air
allowing temperatures to drop a few degrees...though still quite
hot.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               65  95  69 101 /  40  10  10   0
Carlsbad                 62  98  64  99 /  30   0   0   0
Dryden                   69  99  71 105 /  20  20  10   0
Fort Stockton            67 100  71 102 /  40  20  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           64  93  67  92 /  20   0   0   0
Hobbs                    61  95  62  98 /  40   0   0   0
Marfa                    56  94  57  94 /  30  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     66  96  69 101 /  50  10  10   0
Odessa                   67  96  70 101 /  60  10  10   0
Wink                     66 100  65 103 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
209 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-041915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
209 PM CDT Fri Jun 3 2022 /109 PM MDT Fri Jun 3 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a slight risk of severe storms this afternoon and tonight,
mainly over Lea County and the northwest Permian Basin.  Any severe
storms that do develop will be accompanied by large hail, damaging
winds, and an isolated tornado.  Heavy rainfall may also result in
flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A heat wave is expected Sunday through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

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