River Flood Warning 4, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
155 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, HYDROLOGY...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

...Heavy rain and flash flooding expected this afternoon and
overnight along and north of I-20 south to the Davis Mountains and
Presidio Valley...

A busy afternoon and evening is expected as heavy rain has already
begun to develop across portions of southeast NM. Rich moisture in
place (PWATs >1.5"), sufficient instability, and training cells will
likely lead to efficient rainfall rates on the order 2-3 inches
per hour. This will lead to areas of flash flooding, especially
across SE NM and much of the Permian Basin. Have expanded the
Flood Watch to include these locations and extended it through the
overnight hours.

More rain is possible Sunday, but the greatest concern for flooding
looks to be shifting mainly to our east. A cold front will move into
the region during the afternoon and will be a focus for additional
showers in storms. Temperatures will remain below normal through the
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through  Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

By Mon the cold front and primary mid-level theta-e ridge axis
will be shifting swd taking with it the better chance for rain. As
such Mon into Tue will be sort of a transition from recent high
PoPs toward the lower. Mon AM NBM's sct-nmrs SHRA/TSRA still ok (a
little too high) for the ern CWFA and then for the PM sct PoPs
favored in the Davis Mtns-Big Bend-Lower Trans Pecos. Still looks
like unseasonably cool temps will be common. There are
indications of a mid-level trof hanging back across W TX into Tue
seemingly supportive for continuation of sct PoPs into Tue,
especially if daytime heating is sufficient to develop SB
instability. Wed there is more of a definitive push of drier mid-
level air, which confine the higher PoPs across the Lower Trans
Pecos, and Big Bend. Warmer temps will accompany the drier mid-
levels, but still below normal. Mid-level ridging does have an
increased presence Thu, especially across the w, while across the
far swrn and srn reaches of CWFA there remains a chance of
SHRA/TSRA. 7h temps signal the continuation of below normal high
temps. Mid-level ridging farther e still expected on Fri, but this
is ahead of a fairly well captured mid-level trof that may
impact/provide some possibility of change Sat-Sun?

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

SHRA continues across SE NM terminals this morning with periodic
MVFR and IFR cigs and visbys. A round of TSRA is expected to
develop this afternoon near the Pecos River and move northeast
affecting most terminals into the evening. Have included tempos as
confidence increases, but there is still some uncertainty on
timing. MVFR/IFR cigs are expected to develop just before sunrise
across the area lasting through the TAF period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

Minor to moderate hydrologic impacts remain possible across the
Rio Grande from around Presidio downstream to near Johnson Ranch.
Runoff from tributaries to the north and south of the Rio Grande,
not to mention additional rainfall, through Sun AM are a concern.
Impact are also possible on flashy draws and drainages mainly
west of the Pecos River in Eddy Co..

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  90  70  83 /  50  60  60  60
Carlsbad                 67  83  66  84 /  60  50  40  40
Dryden                   74  93  73  90 /  20  50  50  50
Fort Stockton            70  87  70  85 /  50  60  50  50
Guadalupe Pass           63  76  63  76 /  60  60  40  40
Hobbs                    68  85  66  81 /  70  40  40  40
Marfa                    62  82  62  81 /  50  70  50  60
Midland Intl Airport     71  89  69  83 /  60  50  50  50
Odessa                   73  88  71  83 /  60  50  50  50
Wink                     71  88  69  86 /  50  40  40  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Andrews-Borden-Chinati
     Mountains-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Central Lea County-Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern
     Lea County-Southern Lea County.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
204 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-211915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
204 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 /104 PM MDT Sat Aug 20 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered to numerous shower and storms are expected this afternoon
and tonight across Southeast New Mexico, southward to the Davis
Mountains, the Marfa Plateau, and parts of the Permian Basin. The
main concern with these storms will be heavy rain that could produce
flooding and flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through
7 AM CDT/6 AM MDT Sunday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms are likely each day through Tuesday and may produce
heavy rainfall which could result in flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland