Red Flag Warning 16, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

889 
WWUS84 KMAF 270909
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
409 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022

TXZ048-053-062-063-068>070-075-082-272115-
/O.NEW.KMAF.FW.A.0017.220329T1600Z-220330T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0016.220327T1700Z-220328T0200Z/
Scurry-Mitchell-Midland-Glasscock-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-
Terrell-
409 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS 
EVENING FOR WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND 
CRITICALLY DRY FUELS... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 
TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND 
CRITICALLY DRY FUELS...

The National Weather Service in Midland/Odessa has issued a Fire
Weather Watch for strong winds, and very dry conditions, which is
in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...Scurry, Mitchell, Midland, Glasscock, Crane, 
  Upton, Reagan, Pecos and Terrell.

* TIMING...Warning, Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. 
  Watch, Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.

* WINDS...Today, south 15 to 20 mph. Tuesday southwest 20 to 35 
  mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Today as low as 3 percent. Tuesday 7 to 13
  percent.

* RFTI...Today, 4 or near critical. Tuesday 5 critical to 7  
  extreme.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Fires can start from the smallest of flames or sparks and are
highly discouraged today. Observe local burn bans.

Heightened awareness is needed Tuesday as the potential for 
significant fires will increase and resource demand may be high.

&&

$$

NMZ116>119-TXZ045>047-050>052-059>061-067-270>282-272115-
/O.NEW.KMAF.FW.A.0017.220329T1600Z-220330T0300Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Loving-
Winkler-Ector-Ward-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson County-Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-
Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-
Lower Brewster County-
409 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 /309 AM MDT Sun Mar 27 2022/

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND 
CRITICALLY DRY FUELS...

The National Weather Service in Midland/Odessa has issued a Fire
Weather Watch for strong winds, and very dry conditions, which is
in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...Permian Basin, the Trans Pecos and Southeast New
  Mexico.

* TIMING...Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.

* WINDS...Plains, southwest 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.
  Mountains southwest 30 to 45 mph, gust over 60 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...7 to 13 percent.

* RFTI...5 near critical to 8 extreme.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. 

Heightened awareness is needed Tuesday as the potential for 
significant fires will increase and resource demand may be high.

&&

$$

949 
WWUS84 KMAF 271925
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
225 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022

TXZ048-053-062-063-068>070-075-082-281000-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-220328T0200Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.A.0017.220329T1600Z-220330T0300Z/
Scurry-Mitchell-Midland-Glasscock-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-
Terrell-
225 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND CRITICALLY
DRY FUELS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VERY STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY, AND CRITICALLY DRY FUELS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Scurry, Mitchell, Midland, Glasscock, Crane, 
  Upton, Reagan, Pecos and Terrell Counties.

* TIMING...Warning, this afternoon through this evening. 
  Watch, Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.

* WINDS...This afternoon, south 15 to 20 mph. 
  Tuesday, southwest 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Today, as low as 3 percent. 
  Tuesday, 7 to 15 percent.

* RFTI...Today, 4 or near critical. Tuesday, 5 critical 
  to 8 extreme.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Fires can start from the smallest of flames or sparks and are
highly discouraged today. Observe local burn bans.

Heightened awareness is needed Tuesday as the potential for
significant fires will increase and resource demand may be high.

&&

$$

NMZ116>119-TXZ045>047-050>052-059>061-067-270>282-281000-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.A.0017.220329T1600Z-220330T0300Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Loving-
Winkler-Ector-Ward-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson County-Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-
Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-
Lower Brewster County-
225 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 /125 PM MDT Sun Mar 27 2022/

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VERY STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY,
AND CRITICALLY DRY FUELS...

* AFFECTED AREA...All of West Texas and southeast New Mexico.

* TIMING...Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.

* WINDS...Plains, southwest 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.
  Mountains, southwest 30 to 50 mph with gusts up to 70 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...7 to 15 percent.

* RFTI...5 critical to 8 extreme.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur.

Heightened awareness is needed Tuesday as the potential for
significant fires will increase and resource demand may be high.

&&

$$

383 
WWUS84 KMAF 280130
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
830 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022


TXZ062-068-075-281600-
/O.CAN.KMAF.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-220328T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KMAF.FW.W.0017.220328T1700Z-220329T0100Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.A.0017.220329T1600Z-220330T0300Z/
Midland-Crane-Pecos-
830 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022

......RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LESS THAN 10%, 20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, AND HIGH 
TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO SOUTH TO THE 
I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PERMIAN BASIN...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VERY STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY, AND EXTREMELY DRY FUELS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Midland, Crane and Pecos.

* TIMING...Warning, Monday afternoon through Monday evening. 
  Watch, Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.

* WINDS...Monday, south 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
  Tuesday, south 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 3 percent.

* RFTI...Monday, 4 or near critical. Tuesday, 7 or extreme.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

TXZ048-053-063-069-070-082-281600-
/O.CAN.KMAF.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-220328T0200Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.A.0017.220329T1600Z-220330T0300Z/
Scurry-Mitchell-Glasscock-Upton-Reagan-Terrell-
830 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VERY STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY, AND EXTREMELY DRY FUELS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Scurry, Mitchell, Glasscock, Upton, Reagan and 
  Terrell.

* TIMING...Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.

* WINDS...South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 5 percent.

* RFTI...4 or near critical.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

NMZ116>119-TXZ045>047-050>052-059>061-067-270>278-281600-
/O.NEW.KMAF.FW.W.0017.220328T1700Z-220329T0100Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.A.0017.220329T1600Z-220330T0300Z/
Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains-Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Loving-
Winkler-Ector-Ward-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson County-Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-
Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
830 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 /730 PM MDT Sun Mar 27 2022/

......RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LESS THAN 10%, 20-FT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE, AND HIGH 
TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO SOUTH TO THE 
I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PERMIAN BASIN...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VERY STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY, AND EXTREMELY DRY FUELS...


* AFFECTED AREA...Gaines, Dawson, Borden, Andrews, Martin, 
  Howard, Loving, Winkler, Ector, Ward, Sacramento Foothills and 
  Guadalupe Mountains, Chaves Plains, Eddy Plains, Lea, 
  Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet, Guadalupe and Delaware 
  Mountains, Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, Eastern Culberson 
  County, Reeves County Plains, Chinati Mountains, Marfa 
  Plateau, Davis Mountains and Davis Mountains Foothills.

* TIMING...Warning, Monday afternoon through Monday evening. 
  Watch, Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.

* WINDS...Monday, Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.
  Tuesday, Southwest 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph in the 
  mountains and 50 mph in the plains.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 5 percent.

* RFTI...Monday, 5 or critical. Tuesday, 7 or extreme.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity and warm temperatures will increase
potential for fire growth.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

TXZ279>282-281600-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.A.0017.220329T1600Z-220330T0300Z/
Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-
Lower Brewster County-
830 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VERY STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY, AND EXTREMELY DRY FUELS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Central Brewster County, Chisos Basin, 
  Presidio Valley and Lower Brewster County.

* TIMING...Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 6 percent.

* RFTI...7 or extreme.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur.

Heightened awareness is needed Tuesday as the potential for
significant fires will increase and resource demand may be high.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
628 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022

VFR prevailing next 24 hrs. KFST will see elevated S/SE flow due
to LLJ with KMAF slightly less aggressive on speeds
comparatively. Light/vrb flow at KCNM/KPEQ west of the Pecos
river by 10-12z. All terminals seeing winds out of the S/SW after
18z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022

The upper lvl pattern will not change much over the next 24-36 hrs.
A highly amplified upper lvl ridge will continue to migrate ewd into
the central CONUS as a deep 500 hpa trough moves onto the CA coast.
Our region will remain under the influence of ridging aloft, keeping
temperatures well above normal. After a very warm afternoon with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, lows tonight will not fall as far
as recent nights due to an increasing low lvl jet and the presence
of some high clouds. Above normal low temperatures in the upper 40s
to mid 50s can be expected region-wide.

On sunday, the 500 hpa ridge axis will set up over the TX/NM border
with heights aloft increasing further. An expansive mid lvl thermal
ridge with 850 hpa temps approaching 25-26C will equate to very hot
temperatures for late March. Low to mid 90s can be expected Sunday
afternoon for a large portion of the region making it feel more like
summer than spring. Breezy conditions paired with extremely dry air
and dry fuels will increase fire weather concerns across the
eastern CWA Sunday afternoon (see fire wx discussion below). A
mild Sunday night is anticipated as we finally see modest moisture
recovery across eastern portions of the region. The low level jet
and increasing dew points should keep lows in the Permian Basin
and lower Trans Pecos in the mid 50s with upper 40s to low 50s
elsewhere.

-Salerno

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through  Friday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022

An upper level low will move onto the West Coast Monday causing
westerly winds to begin increasing across the area. The low will
weaken as it moves east across the southwestern states but the jet
max on its southern periphery should still be strong enough to cause
high winds into the mountains and very windy conditions stretching
well east into the Permian Basin. The main uncertainty in the PoP
forecast is how weak the trough will be when it reaches New Mexico.
The models are trending weaker and more positively tilted which
could keep low level moisture and rain chances east of the CWA. A
deeper low/trough could hold enough moisture west that at least the
eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos would have a chance at
precipitation. For now it appears that any rain will be east of MAF
with locations along a line from Big Lake to Colorado City having
the best chance. Any showers or storms that develop will move off
quickly so QPF amounts will likely be less than a quarter of an
inch. There is also a slight chance for light showers as the trough
moves into West Texas but amounts will be minimal if any.

Temperatures will get well above normal Monday with perhaps a few
record highs being set. The NBM appears slightly low according to
other members and 850 mb temp extrapolation so have bumped up highs
slightly. Temps should cool slightly Tuesday with the arrival of the
upper trough and Pacific front then further cooling on Wednesday as
high pressure builds south behind the departing cold front. The cool
air hangs around Thursday with slight warming on Friday before
another front moves through on Saturday.

Hennig

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022

Tomorrow we begin to feel the effects of an upper level low moving
into the West Coast. Well above normal temperatures will lead to
minimum afternoon humidities once again dropping below 10 percent,
and even 5 percent in some locations. Fortunately winds will
generally be modest and should only exceed 15 mph in our eastern
CWA. Near record temperatures Monday keep the very dry air in
place and the approaching upper low will cause winds to increase
expanding the critical fire weather threat. However Tuesday is the
day that will be most critical as the upper low reaches New Mexico
causing strong winds across all of West Texas and southeastern New
Mexico. Relative humidities will edge only slightly higher but
will still be below 15 percent. The strong winds will intersect
the LLTR over West Texas and could present the potential for a
wildfire outbreak. Models are showing there may be some mid and
upper level clouds early in the day that may clear out during the
afternoon. Poor humidity recovery is expected areawide tonight,
with fair recovery possible Sunday and Monday night in the
eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               54  93  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 45  93  47  90 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   52  90  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            54  94  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           54  83  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    46  89  48  90 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    36  84  38  84 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     50  91  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   53  91  55  92 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     43  92  45  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for Crane-Glasscock-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-
     Terrell-Upton.

NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...87

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
247 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>047-050>052-059>061-067-270>282-272000-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Ward-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
247 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022 /147 PM MDT Sat Mar 26 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Elevated fire weather conditions today for all zones except the
Guadalupe and Sacramento Mountains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Critical fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday and Monday.
Tuesday could see extremely critical conditions.

Widespread high winds are expected Tuesday afternoon with areas of
blowing dust possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

TXZ048-053-062-063-068>070-075-082-272000-
Scurry-Mitchell-Midland-Glasscock-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
247 PM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Texas and western
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Elevated fire weather conditions today for all zones except the
Guadalupe and Sacramento Mountains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Critical fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday and Monday.
Tuesday could see extremely critical conditions.

Widespread high winds are expected Tuesday afternoon with areas of
blowing dust possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland