High Wind Watch 8, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1025 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1017 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

The Arctic cold front has pushed to the w of all TAF sites with
stout cold winds near 15-20kt at HOB/MAF/INK. MVFR/near MVFR CIGS
will start to come in around 10Z/Wed at MAF/HOB/INK and hold thru
the day, except lifting at INK around 18Z. Wintry precip is
expected to develop tonight starting around 07Z, but mostly remain
n of MAF and e of HOB, but could be close. Winds will decrease by
mid morning to around 10kts. Early Thu AM we think MAF/HOB/INK
will have a good chance to be socked with IFR/MVFR VSBY in FZFG,
but not until between 06Z-09Z/Thu.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 216 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

A strong cold front has begun its southwestern march across the
region this afternoon. Areas ahead of the front will remain mild
with highs in the 60s and 70s. Areas behind the front will struggle
to warm and be significantly cooler. Once the sun sets this evening
the front will make rapid progress through much of the region before
stalling against the higher terrain. Temperatures are expected to
rapidly fall behind the front. The Upper Trans Pecos and Permian
Basin will all be below freezing by Wednesday morning. With areas
further south in the mid to upper 30s and 40s. Precipitation will
enter the picture by early Wednesday morning. Ascent over the front
will result in drizzle/freezing drizzle potential across the
northeastern Permian Basin. Large dewpoint depressions will help
minimize impacts and little accumulation of ice is expected except
for on elevated or grassy surfaces where a light glaze may form.
Sleet may also be possible as an upper-level shortwave moves across
the region. This sleet will likely be convective in nature and
impacts will be very localized with any of this activity as it races
northeast.

Temperatures struggle to warm throughout the day north of the Pecos
River with continued cold air advection behind the front. Upper 20s
and 30s can be expected across these areas. South of the Pecos River
will remain milder with temperatures in the low 80s along the Rio
Grande. Talk about a temperature spread! Precipitation will still be
possible across the far eastern Permian Basin during the day in the
form of some lingering freezing drizzle and maybe some sleet. No
impacts are expected with this light precipitation.

Temperatures fall back into the teens and 20s for areas north of the
Pecos River Wednesday night. Temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s
further south. Another round of precipitation is expected overnight
Wednesday with the main upper-level trough. The far eastern Permian
Basin can expect additional freezing drizzle and sleet. These
accumulations should also remain light. Any ice accretion is
expected only on elevated and grassy surfaces. Overall, total ice
accumulations of a few hundredths of an inch can be expected for
areas east of Midland/Odessa in the Permian Basin. A Special Weather
Statement has been issued for minor impacts with this light icing
potential.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through  Monday)
Issued at 216 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

On Thursday an approaching upper trough will move over NM and into
the Panhandle by evening. As it passes east the next trough will
swing down across ID into UT Friday... move into CO early Saturday
and onto the plains by evening.  This trough will sag across OK into
TX Sunday morning before high pressure builds in from the west later
in the day.

On Thursday a W wind will briefly push the cold airmass out of the
area and allow temperatures to warm into the 50s east... 60s
central... with 70s and a few 80s south.  However will get a second
push on this front as cold air moves back into the region late
Thursday/early Friday. Lows Friday morning in the teens north... 20s
central... with 30s south.  Highs Friday in the 40s and 50s with 60s
and a few 70s south.  Not much change on Saturday before finally
starting to warm Sunday.

Could have some lingering precip eastern counties Thursday morning
as the system moves off but by that time most should be east of the
region.  Rest of the forecast is dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               54  21  27  20 /   0  30  10  30
Carlsbad                 72  26  49  21 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   82  37  50  35 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton            79  30  48  31 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           63  23  50  33 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    69  16  36  20 /   0  10   0  10
Marfa                    70  33  72  32 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     68  21  31  23 /   0  20  10  10
Odessa                   70  22  32  24 /   0  20  10  10
Wink                     75  24  42  22 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for Borden-
     Howard-Mitchell-Scurry.

NM...None.

&&

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