Flash Flood Warning 84, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

078 
WGUS74 KMAF 042330
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
630 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

TXC109-050100-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0084.000000T0000Z-221005T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Culberson TX-
630 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 /530 PM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022/

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT/7 PM MDT/ 
THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN CULBERSON COUNTY...

At 630 PM CDT /530 PM MDT/, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms 
producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 1.5 
inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch 
are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or 
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Pine Springs, McKittrick Canyon and Guadalupe Mountains National 
  Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Remain alert for flooding even in locations not receiving rain. 
Arroyos, streams, and rivers can become raging killer currents in a 
matter of minutes, even from distant rainfall.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where 
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become 
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or 
creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 3200 10489 3200 10454 3190 10453 3168 10486

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

JP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
214 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

An upper level trough is centered over South Dakota and extends
southwest over Arizona and New Mexico. The northward extension of
the trough will begin to break away from the southern extension of
the trough on Wednesday. Temperatures today will mostly be in the
80s across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico with 70s across
the mountains and portions of Southeast New Mexico and 90s across
portions of the Big Bend. Upper lift will increase across the area
today due to the portion of the upper trough to the west. There
will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into
this evening from Eddy County to the Big Bend mostly impacting the
mountains. Showers may linger across Southeast New Mexico through
the overnight period. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s
and 60s. The southern portion of the upper trough moves over New
Mexico on Wednesday which will allow for upper lift to continue to
increase over the area. This will result in continuing chances of
showers and thunderstorms from the northern Permian Basin toward
the Rio Grande on Wednesday. High temperatures on Wednesday will
be similar or slight cooler than those today. Low temperatures
Wednesday night will be similar or slightly cooler than tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

This has been a very slow start to the fall season. Normally by
this time we would have seen a couple of strong cold fronts make
it through the area by now but here we are in early October with
only a few weak frontal passages to speak of. Normally this lack
of activity would leave us with above to well above normal
temperatures. We haven't seen that so far this year though as dry
air and light winds have allowed morning lows to drop into the 50s
and the shorter days are keeping highs only slightly above
normal.

The extended forecast will be a continuation of the established
trend. The upper level pattern remains somewhat stagnant with weak
ridging over the West Coast and broad troughing over the central
and eastern U.S. with several systems moving out of Canada and
across the Great Lakes region. Eastern New Mexico and West Texas
will be left under modest northwesterly flow that will send a
periodic cold front to the area, doing little other than providing
a wind shift. The main feature to monitor will be an upper low
that gets cut off from the main westerlies and becomes stationary
near the Arizona/Mexico border. The low will draw moisture back
west giving western portions of the CWA a chance for showers and
thunderstorms each day, especially the higher elevations where
orographics will enhance lift. Monday a weak shortwave will eject
northeast from the low possibly spreading some of the rainfall
into the Permian Basin.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

Thunderstorms will be possible for CNM, PEQ, HOB, and FST later
this afternoon with CNM having the best chances. There is a slight
chance of low ceilings for CNM later tonight but chances are too
small to include at this time. Winds will mostly be out of the
southeast to south this afternoon with some gusts possible. Winds
will weaken this evening and become more variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               59  86  58  85 /  10  10  10   0
Carlsbad                 58  77  56  77 /  30  40  40  30
Dryden                   59  83  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            59  85  57  82 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           56  71  54  69 /  40  40  40  30
Hobbs                    56  79  54  78 /  20  40  30  20
Marfa                    49  78  49  75 /  20  20  20  20
Midland Intl Airport     59  83  57  82 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                   59  83  58  82 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                     59  83  57  82 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...80
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...80

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
209 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-051915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
209 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022 /109 PM MDT Tue Oct 4 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across much of southeastern New Mexico in addition to the
Guadalupe/Davis Mountains. Locally heavy rainfall with be possible
with the storms, especially in and around the Guadalupes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across southeast
New Mexico and the western high terrain each afternoon through this
weekend though Wednesday will see the greatest storm chances.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland