Flash Flood Warning 83, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

377 
WGUS74 KMAF 192224
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
524 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

TXC109-192345-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0083.000000T0000Z-220919T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Culberson TX-
524 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022 /424 PM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022/

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT/545 PM 
MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN CULBERSON COUNTY...

At 524 PM CDT /424 PM MDT/, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms 
producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 3 
inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing. While rain 
has largely come to an end, flooding and flash flooding may continue.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, highways,
         streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage
         and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  McKittrick Canyon and Guadalupe Mountains National Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Remain alert for flooding even in locations not receiving rain. 
Arroyos, streams, and rivers can become raging killer currents in a 
matter of minutes, even from distant rainfall.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where 
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become 
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or 
creeks.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3199 10480 3200 10461 3181 10465 3183 10482

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

JP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
222 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

Isolated thunderstorms are once again firing in the Guadalupe
Mountains, especially near Queen and Pine Springs. There isn't much
movement on these storms so there may be some flooding in low water
crossing areas downstream. Rainfall amounts do not appear enough to
warrant a flash flood warning but this will be closely monitored
this afternoon. Low clouds moved north into the Permian Basin this
morning and though they are lifting, there still may be enough to
inhibit warming a degree or two. Tomorrow will be very similar to
today with isolated afternoon thunderstorms in the Guadalupe
Mountains and a cumulus field over the Permian Basin. Highs will be
nearly identical to today with the only century readings near Rio
Grande Village.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

Rinse and repeat pattern will continue as upper-ridge center will
be positioned directly overhead by mid-week through Friday. Highs
will remain above-normal as a result with the highest heights
focused over western and central TX. Expected a continuation of
90s with 80s in the mountains and 100+ along the RGV. Shortwave
trough over the Midwest will flatten the ridge Fri/Sat as it
pivots eastward which will initiate the downward trend in
temperatures in the extended. By Sun/Mon, a digging shortwave on
the backside of the longwave trough over the eastern CONUS will
help send a cold front into the region. Temperatures early next
week may be in the 80s for highs with some 50s over the northern
half of the region for lows. We are getting closer to when this
occurs climatologically so it'll be something to monitor. Precip
still looks meager, but the chances are non-zero at this time,
which is better than any point this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

MVFR CIGs have lifted to VFR across the area and will steadily
lift through the afternoon to SCT-BKN040-060. These clouds will
dissipate after 00Z but may reappear near 12Z tomorrow though
confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               69  94  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 67  91  65  91 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                   71  90  70  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            68  91  67  92 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           64  83  63  84 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                    65  89  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    58  85  57  87 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     68  90  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   69  90  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     70  92  68  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
251 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-202000-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
251 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022 /151 PM MDT Mon Sep 19 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early
evening,mainly over the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, but a few
storms are possible over the Davis mountains and the Rio Grande
Valley. Brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds are possible.
Localized flooding concerns may develop.

Minor river flooding of the Rio Grande will continue from Presidio
through Johnson Ranch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Minor river flooding of the Rio Grande will continue from Presidio
through Johnson Ranch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland