Flash Flood Warning 79, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

720 
WGUS74 KMAF 142310
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022

TXC043-243-371-150000-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0079.000000T0000Z-220915T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Brewster TX-Jeff Davis TX-Pecos TX-
610 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING 
FOR NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER, SOUTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS AND WEST CENTRAL 
PECOS COUNTIES...

At 610 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3.5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of Northwestern Brewster, Southeastern Jeff 
  Davis and West Central Pecos Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3058 10378 3087 10334 3068 10313 3058 10321
      3045 10368

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Samantha Zuber

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022

The batch of moisture, associated with a weak shortwave, that
brought some activity to the area this morning is beginning to lift
out to the east and northeast. Isolated to scattered convection will
remain possible from the Guadalupes and SE NM down to the Davis
Mountains during the afternoon with decreasing chances further to
the east. Drier air will advect into the region overnight tonight
and any leftover activity from this afternoon will dissipate by
around 06z this evening.

Temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 60s for much of the CWA
tonight and into tomorrow morning with spots in the higher
elevations seeing the 50s. Drier air will make for more efficient
warming Thursday afternoon and highs will reach about a degree or
two higher than today. Drier air and a decrease in upper level
support will keep Thursday afternoon dry aside from one or two very
determined showers/storms over the Davis Mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022

The long term forecast leaves much to be desired, as upper level
ridging follows the trough currently moving through West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  The ECMWF ensembles build the ridge over Texas
through next Tuesday or so, whereas the GFS/CMC do so through Sunday
before shifting the ridge east.  The NBM follows the GFS/CMC,
pushing highs above normal by Saturday afternoon, and peaking
Sunday w/highs averaging 7-8F above normal.  Temperatures will than
drop off slightly into the extended, coming in 4-5F above
climatology by Wednesday afternoon.  In an environment such as this,
it's hard to quibble with the NBM, with little in the way of targets
of opportunity.  Low temperatures each morning remain
undistinguished as well.  The pattern is such that a 30+kt LLJ
develops each night, keeping the boundary layer well-mixed and
minimum temperatures above-normal everywhere through the end of this
forecast.

Rain chances in the extended look even more pedestrian, as ridging
shuts off all windows of opportunity.  CMC ensembles look most
promising, as they push the ridge farthest east near the end of
their runs, but not in time to make a difference this forecast. Both
the GFS and the CMC usher in a cold front a week from Friday or so,
and perhaps a chance of rain will manifest in the extended in a
couple of days or so, but for now, the NBM stays abysmally dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022

VFR conditions to prevail at all sites. Winds will be generally
light with directions remaining southeasterly. Scattered cu field
between 6-8k feet AGL. Convection will be possible this afternoon
near KCNM/KHOB/KPEQ, but confidence is currently too low to mention.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               68  91  67  93 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 63  90  64  93 /  20  10   0   0
Dryden                   69  89  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            67  90  66  92 /  40  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           62  83  64  84 /  20  10   0   0
Hobbs                    64  88  63  90 /  40  10   0   0
Marfa                    57  85  56  86 /  30  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     67  89  66  91 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   69  88  67  90 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     67  91  67  93 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...93

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1100 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-151600-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
1100 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 /1000 AM MDT Wed Sep 14 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible through this evening, mainly from
Southeast New Mexico through the Davis Mountains. Any storms that do
develop will be accompanied by frequent lightning, small hail, gusty
winds, and brief, heavy rainfall.

Minor to moderate river flooding of the Rio Grande will continue
from Presidio through Johnson Ranch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Minor to moderate river flooding of the Rio Grande will continue
from Presidio through Johnson Ranch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

44