Flash Flood Warning 78, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

333 
WGUS74 KMAF 132121
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
421 PM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022

TXC243-132215-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0078.000000T0000Z-220913T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jeff Davis TX-
421 PM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS COUNTY...

At 421 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms produced heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have 
fallen. Rainfall is ending but flash flooding is ongoing.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Bloys Camp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where 
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become 
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or 
creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 3094 10393 3050 10416 3065 10428 3079 10423
      3092 10416

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Samantha Zuber

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
155 PM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022

Not much to write home about in the short term.  WV imagery shows
the upper ridge now moving through the central CONUS, transitioning
flow aloft to southwest.  Area radars already show convection trying
to go up in the Guadalupes, but mesoanalysis shows  a weak cap still
in place there.  However, this should be gone soon, and CAMs/NBM
develop this east and south through tonight as the trough to the
west moves into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  A 35+kt LLJ
will prolong activity and keep the PBL sufficiently mixed, with the
aid of debris cloud, that lows will come in above normal.

Wednesday, w/the trough moving farther east, thicknesses will come
down a bit, bringing temperatures a bit closer to normal.  Rain
chances will increase, mainly over the northwest w/the advancement
of the trough. Convection may develop far east enough to be heard
in Midland before slowly diminishing Wednesday night. Another LLJ
is forecast to develop, but slightly weaker than tonight's.
Overnight lows will be similar to tonight's, if not a degree or so
cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022

The negatively-tilted trough that brought some thunderstorm activity
to the higher terrain and adjacent plains Tuesday and Wednesday
ejects into the Upper Midwest Thursday. Only a lingering threat of
an isolated thunderstorm or two remains Thursday afternoon across
these locations. Otherwise, the forecast continues to remain dry for
the majority of locations. Temperatures hover near or slightly above
normal each day. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s and low 90s with
lows in the 60s can be expected for most. The only potential end to
these summer doldrums is a large trough set to arrive early next
week. This is too far out to get into the weeds with the details,
but one can hope.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022

VFR conditions to prevail at all sites. Winds will be generally
light with directions remaining southeasterly. Convection will be
possible this afternoon near KCNM/KHOB/KPEQ, but confidence is
currently too low to mention.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               69  91  67  91 /   0  10  10   0
Carlsbad                 66  87  64  89 /  30  50  30  10
Dryden                   69  89  68  90 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            68  88  67  90 /  10  20  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           62  79  62  82 /  30  40  30   0
Hobbs                    64  85  63  87 /  10  40  30  10
Marfa                    59  81  57  85 /  20  40  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     67  88  67  88 /   0  10  10   0
Odessa                   69  87  68  88 /   0  10  10   0
Wink                     68  89  66  90 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...93

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
126 PM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-141830-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
126 PM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 /1226 PM MDT Tue Sep 13 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

River flooding continues along the Rio Grande from Presidio
downriver to Johnson Ranch.

There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening from
the Guadalupe Mountains to Davis Mountains and adjacent plains. A
few thunderstorms could produce heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Prolonged river flooding will continue along the Rio Grande from
Presidio to Johnson Ranch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland