Flash Flood Warning 77, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

197 
WGUS74 KMAF 110330
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
930 PM MDT Sat Sep 10 2022

NMC025-110500-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0077.000000T0000Z-220911T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lea NM-
930 PM MDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS 
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN LEA COUNTY...

At 930 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have 
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the 
warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Tatum, McDonald, Tatum Airport and Gladiola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3337 10348 3337 10313 3297 10309 3296 10323
      3314 10347

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

David Hennig

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
714 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022

Our weather remains relatively quiet this Saturday. Temperatures
this afternoon should climb to near normal. A weak disturbance has
caused a few showers to develop across the northeastern Permian
Basin. This activity is expected to be short-lived and very
isolated. Additionally, a few thunderstorms have developed over the
tried and true Davis Mountains. Through the remainder of the
afternoon and evening, isolated showers and thunderstorms are
expected across the favored higher terrain. At this time, a cold
front is located across the Texas Panhandle with an additional pre-
frontal wind shift across the northern Permian Basin. Overnight,
showers and thunderstorms increase across the northern Permian Basin
and southeast New Mexico as the cold front approaches the region.
This activity slowly shifts south along the cold front before
reaching the Pecos River by morning. Cooler weather and strong,
gusty northeast winds filter in behind the front leading to below
normal temperatures in the 70s and 80s on Sunday. Afternoon showers
and thunderstorms will be possible, but the best chance of any
activity should be along the front and across the favored higher
terrain. By Sunday night, drier air overspreads the area, ending
precipitation chances, and leaving fall-like temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022

Increased insolation ahead mid-level ridging in drier nw flow aloft
along with surface pressure falls does signal a warming trend for
all areas on Mon. Otherwise isold convection is possible INVOF Davis
Mtns. Mid-level ridging has an increased presence Tue, especially
for the ern half of CWFA. Across the w a mid-level moist axis will
approach ahead of the circulation formerly known as Kay and isold-
sct SHRA/TSRA will develop and may spill e into SE NM and the
Trans Pecos. High temps will be seasonal. The mid-level trof will
replace the aforementioned ridge on Wed with sct SHRA/TSRA again
favored across the wrn areas. Thur-Sat wx looks to quiescent as broad
mid-level ridging looks to be in place with a warming/drying/deepening
boundary layer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022

VFR will continue overnight, however MVFR cigs are expected to
develop, mainly at CNM and HOB after sunrise tomorrow. Low cigs
will also be possible at INK, PEQ, and MAF, but confidence is too
low for inclusion at this time. A cold front is expected to move
into the region tonight, impacting HOB by 06Z and the remaining
TAF sites between 08Z-12Z. Gusty NE winds will follow in the wake
of the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               64  80  64  90 /  20  20   0   0
Carlsbad                 65  75  62  89 /  30  30  10  10
Dryden                   70  86  67  89 /   0  20   0   0
Fort Stockton            66  81  63  89 /  10  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           61  70  60  81 /  10  20  10  10
Hobbs                    61  74  60  86 /  40  30  10   0
Marfa                    58  79  55  83 /   0  30  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     65  78  62  88 /  20  20   0   0
Odessa                   65  78  64  88 /  30  20   0   0
Wink                     67  80  64  89 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
203 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-111915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
203 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 /103 PM MDT Sat Sep 10 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time, however river
flooding continues along the Rio Grande from Presidio downriver to
Boquillas.

A few storms can be expected into the early evening across the Trans
Pecos, Southeast New Mexico, and parts of the Permian Basin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Chance of thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday mainly over
Southeast New Mexico. A few strong storms will be possible with
small hail, gusty wind, and brief heavy rain.

Prolonged river flooding will continue along the Rio Grande from
Presidio to Boquillas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland