Flash Flood Warning 73, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

268 
WGUS74 KMAF 022324
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
624 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

TXC371-030045-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0073.000000T0000Z-220903T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pecos TX-
624 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT THIS 
EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY...

At 624 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Bakersfield.

This includes the following highways...
	Interstate 10 between mile markers 283 and 321.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  North Fork Independence Creek, Sheffield Draw, Tunas Creek, Harral 
  Draw, Fourmile Draw, Pecos River and Sixshooter Draw.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3089 10250 3094 10193 3070 10189 3071 10250

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Devin Chehak

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
151 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

An upper ridge is over the western half of the country with West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico on the western edge of an upper
trough. The upper pattern will be fairly similar on Saturday.
Abundant moisture and lift continue across the area which is
allowing for more rain to develop. Rain with isolated thunder is
expected to continue to develop this afternoon into this evening.
Portions of the area south of the Pecos River are in a slight risk
of excessive rainfall for today and a Flood Watch is in effect for
much of the area from the Pecos River to the Rio Grande. High
temperatures today will mostly be in the 70s and 80s but will likely
be warmer than yesterday across the Permian Basin and Southeast New
Mexico. Low temperatures tonight will mostly be in the 60s and 70s.
Rain coverage and amounts are expected to decrease during the
overnight period so did not extend the Flood Watch. Rain coverage
and amounts will likely increase again on Saturday so another Flood
Watch may be needed for tomorrow. High temperatures Saturday will be
similar to today or a degree or two warmer. Low temperatures
tomorrow night will mostly be in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through  Thursday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

Upper ridge centered over the Great Basin Sunday as a trough extends
from the Great Lakes SW down the Mississippi River Valley into
Central TX.  This trough splits the ridge over the west from the
high pressure center over the Atlantic.  The trough will remain in
place next several days before developing into a closed low over the
SE late in the week.

Temperatures will be below normal Sunday through next week with
highs mainly in the 80s. Lows in the 60s.  May see a cold front move
down into the area late next week.

Rain chances still pretty high Sunday across the southern counties
but then decrease significantly next week.  Have been watching
Tropical Storm Javier off the Pacific coast of Mexico as a potential
rain producer for the region but models keep it west of Baja then
take it out to sea.  Next week another tropical system follows the
same track as Javier but looks not to come this way either.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

Rain showers with a possible isolated thunderstorm are expected to
continue near MAF, FST, and INK into the early afternoon hours and
may continue for longer for FST. Low ceilings are expected to
improve to VFR this afternoon but may decrease again tonight.
Winds this afternoon will mostly be out of the south to southeast
then will become variable overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               86  68  87  67 /  20  10  20  10
Carlsbad                 85  65  86  65 /  10   0  20  20
Dryden                   86  70  82  68 /  60  60  60  40
Fort Stockton            81  67  80  65 /  50  50  50  30
Guadalupe Pass           77  63  75  61 /  20  10  20  20
Hobbs                    86  65  87  63 /   0   0  20  20
Marfa                    77  61  75  58 /  50  60  60  30
Midland Intl Airport     83  68  84  66 /  20  10  20  20
Odessa                   83  68  84  66 /  20  10  20  20
Wink                     84  67  84  66 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 11 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster
     County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Terrell.

NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...80

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
140 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-031845-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
140 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2022 /1240 PM MDT Fri Sep 2 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and tonight
mainly south of the Pecos River. A Flood Watch is in effect through
this evening along and south of a Valentine to Fort Stockton line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are likely again Saturday from the Davis Mountains
southward. Locally heavy rain will be the main concern.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions to local law enforcement or emergency management.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland