Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

618 
WGUS74 KMAF 092225
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
525 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

TXC109-100015-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-220710T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Culberson TX-
525 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022 /425 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2022/

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT/615 PM 
MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN CULBERSON COUNTY...

At 525 PM CDT /425 PM MDT/, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms 
producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 1.5 
inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to 
begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Pine Springs and Guadalupe Mountains National Park.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Nickel Creek and Delaware River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3196 10492 3196 10475 3179 10477 3178 10492
      3181 10492 3188 10492 3189 10492

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

James DeBerry

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
231 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

Daytime heating is causing SHRA to develop. Models are showing
this activity will expand in coverage possibly affecting any of
the TAF sites, however it will be so widely scattered that timing
will be extremely difficult so have left out of the TAFs for now
and will amend with SHRA/TS as needed. The exception is FST which
already has showers in the vicinity. Winds this afternoon will be
light which could cause erratic shifts in wind direction
especially near any showers.

Hennig

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

Current radar and satellite is showing the telltale spin of an MCV
over Scurry and Mitchell counties. An axis of instability extends
south to along the I-10 corridor where convection is currently
developing. There may be enough instability remaining over the
Permian Basin for convection to develop especially if temps reach
the triple digits as forecast; however, the highest rain chances
will likely remain south of Midland this afternoon. There is a
marginal threat for strong gusty winds with these storms.

An upper high over the Four Corners region moves east into the
Central Plains tomorrow increasing subsidence for our CWA. That
should eliminate rain chances everywhere except the Davis Mountains
and Big Bend where orographic lift will help storms to form.
Highs tomorrow will be similar to today if not a degree or two
higher with some locations nearing Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through  Friday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

An upper ridge will be over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico on
Monday with an upper trough moving over the Northern Plains/Upper
Midwest. Temperatures are expected to heat up Monday afternoon as
the surface pressure decreases from the previous day. Highs are
expected to be 100+ degrees across most of the area. Temperatures
may reach Heat Advisory criteria from the eastern Permian Basin to
the Big Bend. The upper ridge will shift a little on Tuesday with a
cold front beginning to move into the area. This will allow
temperatures to cool slightly on Tuesday from the previous day. Even
further cooling is expected on Wednesday with highs mostly in the
90s. The frontal boundary will provide an increase in lift with
chances of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures will be a little cooler on Thursday with rain chances
lingering across portions of the area. Temperatures will increase
slightly Friday and next Saturday with diminishing rain chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               76 103  77 104 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 74 100  74 102 /  20  10   0  10
Dryden                   79 103  80 106 /  20  30   0   0
Fort Stockton            76 100  77 103 /  20  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           71  91  73  94 /  20  10   0  10
Hobbs                    72  99  73 101 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    65  92  64  94 /  20  40   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     76 102  77 104 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   77 101  78 104 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     76 102  77 105 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....80
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
207 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-101915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
207 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022 /107 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible across most of the area this afternoon
and evening. Some storms across the Permian Basin maybe strong
capable of strong downburst winds, frequent lightning, small hail,
and brief heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Sunday across the
Trans Pecos. Gusty winds, brief heavy rain, and small hail will be
the main threats.

Heat Advisories may be needed Monday, mainly over the Western Low
Rolling Plains, and the Lower Trans Pecos, including Lower Brewster
and Terrell Counties.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland