Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

586 
WGUS74 KMAF 072319
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
619 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

TXC243-080200-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-220708T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jeff Davis TX-
619 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING 
FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTY...

At 619 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Fort Davis, Davis Mountains State Park, McDonald Observatory, Star 
  Mountain, Fort Davis National Historical Site, Black Mountain, 
  Buffalo Trail Scout Camp and Indian Lodge.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Horse Thief Creek, Cienega Creek, Big Aguja Canyon, North Fork 
  Cienega Creek, Limpia Creek, Madera Canyon, Cook Creek, Horse 
  Thief Canyon and Barrilla Draw.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3075 10405 3087 10386 3075 10364 3064 10371
      3056 10384 3058 10403

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

James DeBerry

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
205 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

VFR conditions and southeasterly flow will persist at all terminals
through the next 24 hrs. A few gusts will be possible this
afternoon, though will be more common at FST beginning in the late
afternoon into the early overnight hours. Scattered thunderstorms
will be possible this afternoon which may produce outflow
boundaries and a more complex wind field, most likely near
CNM/HOB. Low confidence in timing/location of these storms
precludes mention in TAF though.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

The upper level ridge across the southern US continues to
dominate the weather pattern with above average temperatures and
declining precipitation chances expected. Fortunately, the most
intense heat will be focused across central Texas and high
temperatures across west Texas and southeast New Mexico will reach
the upper 90s to low 100s this afternoon. Monsoonal moisture will
clip the western portions of our area again today, with a chance
of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon from the Davis Mountains
and surrounding foothills into southeast New Mexico. Precipitable
water remains slightly above average which suggests any
thunderstorms will be efficient rain makers and may result in
localized flash flooding.

As the upper ridge slides westward through Friday, monsoonal
moisture will be nudged westward as well, now with only isolated
thunderstorm chances in the Davis Mountains into southeast New
Mexico for the afternoon. High resolution models are hinting at
outflow pushing our way from convection to our north which may
help spur a few isolated showers and thunderstorms across the
northern Permian Basin. High temperatures tomorrow will remain
largely unchanged from today, once again peaking in the low 100s
for the Permian Basin and Pecos/Rio Grande river valleys with 90s
in the higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through  Wednesday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

Saturday a very weak cold front reaches the northern Permian Basin
before becoming stationary and dissipating. This boundary could
serve as a focus for afternoon convection but any activity should
be fairly isolated. Afterward, high pressure builds up out of New
Mexico and moves over the Texas Panhandle. Increasing subsidence
from this high will send temperatures into the 100s and could
approach Heat Advisory for the eastern Permian Basin. The
northerly location of the high center will allow for easterly flow
to advect gulf moisture into West Texas with isolated mountain
storms forming each afternoon due to daytime heating.

The high recenters to the west near the Four Corners region on
Tuesday as a low pressure system moves across southern Canada and
into the Great Lakes. Models are showing that northerly flow on
the eastern periphery of the high and a shortwave trough dropping
into the Midwest will push another cold front into the CWA either
Tuesday or Wednesday. There is considerable uncertainty in this
feature in both its strength and timing. The latest MEX guidance
appears too aggressive with cooling while the NBM/ECMWF appears
more reasonable dropping temperatures only back down to near
normal. The front may provide a focus for convection possibly
allowing for rain chances east of the Pecos River thus low
areawide PoPs late in the forecast period.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               77 102  78 101 /   0   0  10  20
Carlsbad                 73  99  73  99 /  20  20  10  20
Dryden                   75 101  78 102 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            75 100  76  99 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           70  92  70  91 /  20  30  10  10
Hobbs                    72  98  72  96 /  20  10  20  20
Marfa                    63  94  63  93 /  20  20   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     75 100  77 100 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                   77 101  78 100 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                     75 102  76 101 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...88

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
133 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-081845-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
133 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 /1233 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible, especially over the Davis Mountains and
Marfa Plateau, but a few in Southeast New Mexico and the Permian
Basin too. Any storms that do develop may be accompanied by frequent
lightning, small hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

It will be getting hotter through the weekend and Monday could see
high temperatures well into the 100s and nearing Heat Advisory
criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland