Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

490 
WGUS74 KMAF 022146
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
446 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022

TXC243-022300-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-220702T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jeff Davis TX-
446 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING 
FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTY...

At 446 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Fort Davis and Star Mountain.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Black Creek, Cienega Creek, Horse Thief Creek, Big Aguja Canyon, 
  Limpia Creek, Horse Thief Canyon, Barrilla Draw and Musquiz Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3085 10379 3075 10362 3062 10366 3051 10376
      3059 10387 3084 10387

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

David Hennig

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022

VFR conditions will be prevailing through the TAF period.
Southeast winds are expected at all terminals with afternoon gusts
at FST, MAF, and INK. An isolated thunderstorm has developed near
FST this afternoon, but this activity should be short-lived in
the vicinity of the terminal..

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022

Isolated thunderstorms have once again begun to develop this
afternoon across the favored higher terrain with the aide of
orographic lift. Additionally, a more isolated chance of
thunderstorms remains possible across far eastern portions of the
area. This activity will continue through the afternoon, before
ending after sunset. High temperatures are expected to be a degree
or two cooler than yesterday as the ridge weakens as a tropical
disturbance continues to weaken across East Texas. Most locations
will see high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon.
Moisture return keeps things mild tonight with low temperatures only
bottoming out in the low to mid 70s for the majority.

Sunday is expected to see increased coverage of showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon. A weak disturbance is forecast
to round the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge as it
restrengthens across the Deep South. This should help generate
additional forcing for convection. As convective temperatures are
reached tomorrow afternoon widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the majority of the region. The
areas with the greatest chance of rainfall will once again be the
favored higher terrain. Temperatures will once again be a few
degrees cooler during the afternoon under the influence of this weak
disturbance. Any thunderstorm activity will wane shortly after
sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Low temperatures remain
very similar to Saturday night.

Hopefully a few of our plains areas can see some meaningful rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through  Friday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022

Monday, the upper ridge is forecast to be over the Gulf Coast
states, leaving weak southwest flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Despite being so far removed from the ridge,
highs will come in at or above-normal most locations.  Heat advisory
criteria also begins creeping back into the picture. This will begin
an upward trend in thicknesses. Monsoonal convection is forecast to
persist west of the area on the periphery of the ridge, as it has
been the past few weeks. Upslope return flow and diurnal instability
will continue to favor convection over the higher terrain out west
and farthest from the ridge's influence, with perhaps the best
chances of rain this forecast on Monday evening. Ample cloud cover
Monday night, as well as a 35+kt LLJ, will keep overnight lows
uncomfortably warm at most locations.

Tuesday, the mercury rises a couple of degrees as thicknesses
continue increasing, and monsoonal convection will once again
persist out west.

This warming trend will plateau on Thursday afternoon or so as the
ridge strengthens over the Southern Plain.  This may may be the
warmest day this forecast as afternoon highs top out 4-5F above
normal.  A few zones may need a heat advisory, but this is not near
as warm as last month.  Temperatures may come down just a skosh
going into the weekend, but will otherwise be very similar to
Thursday.  Monsoonal convection looks to be a given out west each
afternoon/evening through at least Friday, after which things go dry
as the ridge recenters over the Four Corners.

As has been the case the last few weeks, the NBM has a great handle
on things, performing its best in this synoptic setup.  That said,
it's hard to deviate too far from its solutions, if at all.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74  96  75  98 /   0  20  20  10
Carlsbad                 70  96  71  97 /   0  10  20  30
Dryden                   74  97  75  98 /  10  20  10  10
Fort Stockton            72  95  74  98 /  10  20  20  20
Guadalupe Pass           69  88  67  89 /  10  20  20  30
Hobbs                    70  93  70  95 /   0  20  20  20
Marfa                    62  89  63  90 /  20  40  30  40
Midland Intl Airport     74  94  74  96 /   0  20  20  10
Odessa                   75  93  75  97 /   0  20  20  10
Wink                     73  96  75  98 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...91

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1100 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-031600-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
1100 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 /1000 AM MDT Sat Jul 2 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight, mainly over
the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau.  Any storms that do develop
will be accompanied by frequent lightning, small hail, gusty winds,
and brief, heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022

TXZ075-021800-
Pecos TX-
1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Pecos County
through 100 PM CDT...

At 1219 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 19
miles south of Fort Stockton, moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sierra Madera.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3080 10287 3056 10281 3057 10316 3088 10310
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 100DEG 9KT 3062 10295

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

91