Tornado Warning 64, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
229 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night

Latest radar imgry depicted scattered showers/storms all around the
FA this afternoon, w/ some stronger multicell activity noted over
the N/E where remnants from overnight convection have become re-
invigorated w/ diurnal trends and begun to move E/wrd at a faster
motion. An outflow bndry was located along the Wrn portion of the I-
40 corridor, arcing back towards the N/E into N/E AR where it is
more co-located w/ ongoing storms. Lastly, the advancing cold frnt
appears to be into N/Wrn AR, w/ some scattered storm activity
beginning to develop in S/W MO. Though storms have begun to develop
along the frnt in S/W MO, the aforementioned outflow bndry wl also
be a focus point for additional development as the afternoon
progresses.

Through the remainder of the day, the potential for increasing
coverage of thunderstorms along the advancing cold frnt remains
prominent, though mesoanalysis data suggests most of the N/Wrn
portion of the state is well worked over from morning convection, w/
a gradient of MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg extending from W-S/W to
E-N/E over the Nrn two rows of counties. Most CAM guidance has been
consistent in the last 36 to 48 hours on the evolution of storms
along this frnt, w/ the primary threat through the afternoon and
later evening tonight including swaths of strong to damaging winds
from bowing segments, though large hail, and perhaps a few brief
QLCS tornadoes should shear/outflow balances arise, w/ stronger
effective shear residing over the Nrn portion of the state invof an
upper-lvl jet max.

In addition to a severe weather threat, anomalous tropospheric
column moisture is abundant across the FA, with a plume of 1.6" to
1.8" PWATs extending over the region. Thunderstorms that develop wl
lkly have extremely efficient rainfall rates, w/ 2"/hr possible if
storms begin to train, and local flash flooding could occur.

Sun thru Mon, the cold frnt should clear the S/Ern portion of the
state by Sun morning, w/ prominent Nrly winds driving drier air into
the Natural State. In the wake of the frnt, sfc high pressure wl
settle over the region, w/ PoPs tapering off from N/W to S/E through
Sun morning, and settled/dry wx persisting through the end of the
PD, w/ a brief stint of below normal daily high temps.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Friday

A wet and unsettled pattern is expected for the long term across AR.
Aloft, SW flow will be in place between a trough over the
Rockies/Srn Plains and a ridge over the Wrn Atlantic Ocean. A
shortwave embedded in the larger parent flow will traverse across
the state on Tuesday before the entire trough ejects out of the
plains and across the MS Valley region Wednesday into early
Thursday. These two features are anticipated to trigger two rounds
of heavier showers and thunderstorms within areas of already
scattered convection. At the surface, the warm front lifting N from
the short term period should be N of AR, with a return of rich/moist
tropical air encompassing the region.

Heavy rainfall is expected Tuesday through Tuesday. Given PW values
may range from 1.5 to 2 inches, plus a quasi-stationary SW to NE
upper flow, this will set the stage for the potent of heavy rainfall
across the Srn MS Valley. While some severe weather could be
possible, especially once the upper trough pivots through, the main
story will be amount of rainfall possible. As of now, the potential
exists for two to more than five inches of precipitation across a
large portion of AR through the long term. The threat for flash
flooding should remain low to moderate due to the spread out
duration of precipitation, however this will be monitored. Rises on
areas streams and rivers are likely though.

Precipitation is expected to wind down Thursday has high pressure at
the surface and upper level ridging aloft moves into the region. Dry
air will return and temperatures will cool to slightly below
average. Nice weather is expected on Friday.

Temperatures will be near normal mid week thanks to cloud cover and
precipitation, with lows slightly above average for the same
reasons. Temperatures are expected to fall into the 50s for lows
Friday morning, with highs in the 60s and 70s Thursday, and 70s to
80s for highs on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     56  65  54  73 /  90  20  10  10
Camden AR         63  70  58  79 /  90  50  10  20
Harrison AR       49  64  50  68 /  80  10  10  20
Hot Springs AR    58  66  56  75 /  90  40  10  20
Little Rock   AR  60  68  59  76 / 100  30  10  10
Monticello AR     64  71  59  78 /  90  70  20  30
Mount Ida AR      56  66  55  75 /  90  30  10  20
Mountain Home AR  51  66  51  69 /  80  10  10  10
Newport AR        58  65  56  73 /  90  30  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     63  68  60  77 /  90  50  10  20
Russellville AR   56  67  55  73 /  90  20  10  20
Searcy AR         58  66  55  74 /  90  30  10  10
Stuttgart AR      62  67  60  75 /  90  40  10  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...232 / Long Term...70

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
233 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-221945-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
233 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Storms will become more widespread through today into tonight,
first across northwestern and northern Arkansas, and spreading
southeast with time. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary
threats with some tornado potential with any isolated storms.
Localized flooding will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday Through Friday

Showers and thunderstorms will exit toward the Gulf Coast on Sunday,
with precipitation becoming more isolated to scattered through
Monday. Another round of storms is expected Tuesday into Thursday.

While spotty severe weather is possible through Wednesday, the main
concern will be areas of heavy rain. The forecast calls for two to
more than five inches of rain, with the highest amounts in southwest
sections of the state. Given this much rain, flash flooding and
rises on area rivers are becoming more likely. This could be a
significant high water event in parts of the state, so Arkansans are
advised to continue monitoring this developing situation.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will be needed today and tonight.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

232/70

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