Tornado Warning 53, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
222 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday

Frontal boundary continues advancing across the state this
afternoon with regional satellite imagery showing a gradual
decrease in persistent early day cloud cover. This has allowed for
pockets of stronger heating which, coupled with modest forcing
along the front, has eroded CINH enough for isolated convection
to initiate per mosaic radar imagery.

MLCAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear
around 30-40 kts will be enough to support isolated to scattered
strong/severe storms along the front as it pushes into the
central/eastern portions of the state through the afternoon and
evening. Modest low-level hodograph curvature continues to suggest
a non-zero tornado threat, particularly with any discrete or semi-
discrete cells, although large hail and damaging winds will remain
the primary threats. PWAT values >1 inch will support locally
heavy rain as well.

As the front pushes through overnight, seasonably cool air will
filter in on W/NW flow in the post-frontal regime. Low temps in
the upper 40s to upper 50s will be common across the northwestern
three-quarters of the state with a quick moderation back to above
average temps for Sunday afternoon. Highs will reach the 70s to
low 80s.

The next system will quickly cross the Rockies on Monday with a
quick mass field response locally. Today's front will rapidly lift
north across the state as a warm front Monday afternoon with
another cold front approaching from the west. Expect showers and
storms to increase again as the warm front moves through.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday

The long term portion of the forecast looks to remain unsettled
across the state as well as across much of the surrounding area.
Zonal to swrly flow will remain in place at the H500 level with a
series of shortwave troughs/cyclone progged to move from the western
US toward the middle of the country next week.

At the sfc, a cold front will remain in the vicinity and at times be
oriented from west to east across the middle of the state. Through
the middle of next week a couple of sfc lows will develop from the
TX/OK panhandles region and lift E/NE toward the Great Lakes. As
this occurs, the front will be pulled north of the area then return
to the state. This will provide a focus for rain and thunderstorms
as well as variability of T/Td values and wind speed/direction from
northern to southern AR.

Severe chances and the potential for heavy rainfall exist next week
across the state, with the current focus being portions of W/NW
Arkansas. But, given the continued variability in medium range data,
the main area of concern could shift in both area and time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     78  54  80  55 /  70  10   0  10
Camden AR         83  57  85  62 /  50  50   0  20
Harrison AR       78  50  75  53 /  40   0   0  20
Hot Springs AR    80  54  83  60 /  70  10   0  30
Little Rock   AR  81  57  84  61 /  70  20   0  30
Monticello AR     83  60  84  62 /  30  70   0  10
Mount Ida AR      80  52  83  59 /  60   0   0  40
Mountain Home AR  78  51  77  53 /  40   0   0  10
Newport AR        79  55  80  56 /  50  20   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     82  58  83  62 /  50  50   0  20
Russellville AR   80  52  82  58 /  50   0   0  30
Searcy AR         80  53  81  56 /  70  10   0  20
Stuttgart AR      80  58  82  61 /  50  40   0  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...69 / Long Term...67

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
356 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-011000-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
356 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A cold front will drop southeast into the state today...with
chances for showers and thunderstorms increasing across much of
the state. Some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
across central into eastern sections of the state this afternoon
and early evening. Large hail will be the primary threat expected
with the strongest storms...along with damaging winds. A brief
tornado or two could also be seen...along with locally heavy
rainfall possible. Expect the threat for hazardous weather to
become low late tonight into Sunday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday Through Friday

Expect no hazardous weather for Sunday. However, it will become
unsettled in the coming days, with rounds of showers and
thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday, and Thursday into Friday. Areas
of heavy rain are expected, especially in northern and central
sections of the state. The forecast calls for two to three inches
of precipitation from Little Rock northward. There could be flash
flooding in places.

Several tributaries are already swollen, including the Black, Cache,
Ouachita, and lower White Rivers. Given the possibility of heavy
rain, flooding along these rivers should continue, and water levels
may go up even more.

At this time, it appears any severe weather will be isolated in
the coming days.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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