Tornado Warning 41, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
636 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

.AVIATION...
Updated for 12/00Z terminals...

Flight conditions over the next 24 hours will largely be dictated
by the mesoscale environment, with initial convection, then
diminishing intensity, then mvfr or ifr conditions becoming
prevalent. Another potential round of convection by late tomorrow
afternoon, but if this pans out, the terminals will mostly be
dealing with this after the end of the current period.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 300 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday Night

Seeing a 'break' in the convection acrs the FA early this aftn.
Abundant low lvl moisture contd to advect into the region today,
thanks to gusty S/SE winds. Sfc dewpoints were already well into the
60s ovr cntrl and srn AR.

Low clouds have hampered daytime heating in many locations, but have
started to see breaks occurring ovr the SW half of the FA. With
temps warming well into the 70s and lower 80s in this area, SBCAPE
values are now in the 2-3K J/KG range. Data fm our 20z RAOB here at
LZK shows that the low lvl capping inversion has all but eroded.
This was also evident by the sctd SHRA/TSRA starting to form ovr Wrn
AR.

Little chg in the overall fcst thinking this aftn. The HRRR has been
the most consistent of the model suite contg to depict discrete
cells quickly forming later this aftn in the warm and unstable
airmass. Large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes rmn
possible.

The bulk of the activity wl start to dcrs in coverage and intensity
later this evening as assocd upper support shifts NE of AR. We still
look to be in a lull as far as rain chcs go heading into Tue. the
persistent SW flow aloft wl bring yet another upper impulse into the
region late Tue/Tue night. PoPs wl incrs fm the SW starting Tue aftn
and bcm widespread Tue night ovr the FA. Strong and severe storms wl
again be possible, with all modes of severe wx possible. The
unsettled wx wl persist into Wed.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday

An upper level trough looks to be situated just to the west of the
state Tuesday night as continued unsettled weather is likely through
the beginning of the long term period. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are looking more likely Wednesday as instability and
wind shear look to be favorable.

Global and ensemble guidance continues to be in agreement this
afternoon indicating some shower/thunderstorm activity out ahead of
a main line that pushes through the state Wednesday afternoon and
evening with pop up convection out ahead of the line. This timing
will be critical for the system because an afternoon/evening impact
will give abundant amounts of instability (1500+ J/kg CAPE), high
wind shear, and dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Additionally, models show SRH values of 200+ m2/s2. All of which
cause me concern as this would be more than favorable to support
large hail, damaging winds, and tornado development. These
ingredients have been lacking in the past as most systems have
impacted the state during the overnight hours.

So how could Wednesday play out? My current thinking is there will
be storms out ahead of the main line (the cold front) as early as
Wednesday morning with a line of thunderstorms moving across the
state by the afternoon and evening hours. Should some cells be able
to get out ahead of this line, they would pose the greatest risk of
being tornadic with wind shear values >50 kts in addition to large
hail. As the main line moves across the state Wednesday
afternoon/evening it is likely we turn our attention to a damaging
straight-line wind and large hail threat...although tornadoes cannot
be ruled out.

With changes still possible the next couple of days, make sure the
information you receive between now and then is from a reliable
source. Lastly, do not let your guard down over the next several
days as multiple rounds of severe weather are possible. Make sure
you have multiple ways to receive warnings in the event that you are
placed under a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch.

Looking past Wednesday...Once the front clears the state, high
pressure will build into the area promoting calm and dry conditions
for a couple of days. The next chance of rain will return for the
weekend.

Average to above average temperatures are likely across much of the
state through the long term period as temperatures are expected to
get into the 70s and 80s. Overnight lows are expected to be in the
40s to 60s.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...57

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
336 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-121000-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
336 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast today and
tonight as a storm system moves into the state. Some strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible...initially across northern
Arkansas this morning. Some damaging winds and some large hail
will be possible this morning in this region of the state.

By this afternoon and tonight...another round of strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible across the northwest two-thirds of
the state...or along and south of a stalled frontal boundary
across northwest Arkansas. Large hail will be possible with the
strongest thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight...along with an
increased threat for tornadoes. The threat for very large hail
and tornadoes will be greatest with any discrete thunderstorms
that develop south of the front...across western into portions of
central...north central..and northeast portions of the area late
this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and locally heavy
rainfall may also be seen with this activity.

Expect the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms to decrease
late tonight into early Tuesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday Through Sunday

Showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast for Tuesday
afternoon and night as another system moves across the region.
Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible...with all modes
of severe weather possible with the strongest storms.

Another severe weather episode is likely Wednesday as a strong cold
front sweeps through the state. All severe weather hazards...including
damaging winds...hail...and a few tornadoes...will be possible.
Details on timing will continue to be adjusted...however a first
best guess suggests a window over northwest Arkansas Wednesday
morning...and the coverage of severe weather spreading into
central and southern Arkansas Wednesday afternoon and
evening...respectively. There will also be potential for locally
heavy rainfall resulting in some isolated flooding.

Be sure to continue to monitor the latest official forecast
information for details regarding this multi-day severe weather
event.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed each day through Wednesday
evening.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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