Tornado Warning 33, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
638 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

.AVIATION...06/00Z TAF CYCLE

A cold front to the NW of AR this evening, with race to the SE
thru the FA later tngt and Wed mrng. VFR conds ahead of the front,
will eventually bcm IFR/MVFR as low clouds incrs and a narrow
band of convection accompany the FROPA. Clouds wl dcrs fm the NW
later on Wed as drier air filters in and VFR conds return. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 247 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday
A large upper low over the northern Plains tonight will move east
into the Great Lakes Wednesday and sink slowly south Thursday. An
upper ridge over the western U.S. will amplify during the period.

Southerly winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the state.
A cold front in the Plains will move through Arkansas tonight and
bring increased instability that will produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Expect the front to move out of the state in the
morning and precipitation will end in the southeast by 17Z. High
pressure will build over the state Wednesday and Thursday with dry
conditions. Temperatures will be slightly below normal each day.

LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Surface high pressure is expected to control much of the long term
period as cool and dry conditions early in the period become more
spring-like late.

Thursday night through early Monday morning looks to be very quiet a
surface high pressure slides in from the west (Thursday) behind a
weather system. This will give way to below average temperatures
early before temperatures return to average and above average by the
middle to end of the period. By Monday, the next system looks to
impact the natural state as an upper-level trough digs in returning
showers and thunderstorms to the area. Right now it is too early to
detail exact impacts regarding this system, but looking at some
longer range guidance...the chance of severe weather is possible.

Expect highs to be in the 50s and 60s early before warming into the
70s and 80s late in the period. A similar pattern is expected with
low temperatures as they will be in the 30s and 40s early before
warming into the 50s and 60s.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1255 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-061800-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
1255 PM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Expect hit and miss showers and thunderstorms returning across
the northern half of Arkansas tonight. This will be ahead of a
fast moving cold front pushing through the region from the
northwest.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday Through Monday

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue over the
central and eastern counties Wednesday morning. This will be
followed by cooler and much drier air.

Windy conditions are expected Thursday and Friday. Sustained
west to northwest winds at 15 to 25 mph are likely along with
higher gusts.

Below average temperatures will be noted Friday night into
Saturday morning, with a freeze possible across portions of
the north and west.

It will warm up again late in the weekend and early next week,
with thunderstorms back in the forecast.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to https://weather.gov/lzk.

46/67

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