Tornado Warning 29, NWS Baltimore/Washington

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
334 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop into the area through tonight
before settling to the south Sunday. The boundary will weaken
as it lifts back northward Monday through Monday night, with
another boundary stalling out nearby for the middle and latter
portions of next week, resulting in unsettled conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front entering West Virginia this afternoon will
continue tracking eastward into the CWA through tonight. Ahead
of the front is a surface trough along the Blue Ridge Mountains
which is progged to strengthen with peak heating and ample low
level moisture currently in place with dewpoints ranging from
the middle 60s to lower 70s. Temperatures this afternoon are in
the middle 80s to low 90s. Cloud cover from earlier/ongoing
convection across West Virginia is building across the area,
which will help keep temperatures in check a bit, and
potentially limiting the extent of instability that is able to
develop.

That being said, with the strengthening surface trough and
approach front, showers and thunderstorms will continue to spark
across the area this afternoon and into this evening. With
moderate instability building given the humid and moist
conditions in place, and the lift associated with the
approaching front, strong to severe storms will be possible this
afternoon and into this evening. Damaging wind gusts will be
the primary threat with a more isolated threat for large hail
given meager mid level lapse rates. Areas along and east of the
Blue Ridge, where the surface trough is lined up will have the
best chance of severe thunderstorms. This is where a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 9pm this evening.

In addition to the severe threat, isolated instances of flash
flooding will also be possible given the ample moisture in place
at the surface and throughout the atmospheric column with PWATs
nearing an inch and three quarters. Where the strong
thunderstorms emerge will serve to be the areas for potential
flash flooding. Current thinking is the Baltimore/Washington
metro areas will be most susceptible for this potential given
the lower FFG, while localized rainfall amounts in the 1 to 3
inch range possible in a couple hours. As a result, a Flood
Watch remains in effect for the potential of flash flooding
until 10pm.

The front will slowly cross the area this evening and overnight,
but do expect a downtick in convective activity this evening
with the loss of daytime heating and waning instability. Showers
will remain in the forecast through the overnight hours as
cloudy skies persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will most likely stall out just to our south
Sunday, over southwestern VA into North Carolina. A few showers
are possible as an upper- level disturbance passes through in
the westerly flow aloft, but much of the time Sunday may turn
out dry. The best chance for a shower will be closer to the
boundary over our southern areas.

High pressure will briefly extend into the area Sunday night,
bringing dry conditions along with some lower humidity for this
time of year.

The high will move offshore Monday and the boundary to our south
will creep back north as it weakens. A return flow will allow
for seasonable conditions along with a little more humidity.
Latest guidance continues to suggest that much of Monday will
turn out dry, with the deeper moisture and unstable air
remaining to our south. A popup shower/t-storm cannot be
completely ruled out across the Potomac Highlands into central
Virginia, but even there any convection appears that it will be
isolated.

The return flow will continue through Monday night and shortwave
energy in a west to northwest flow aloft will approach the area.
This may trigger an isolated shower/t-storm. However, it appears
that much of the time will be dry, with deeper instability
holding off until the middle of next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term pattern will feature a broad upper ridge over the
central CONUS, putting our are on the periphery in NW flow. Several
impulses of upper-level energy will move from NW to SE across our
area in NW flow aloft during this time.

The one more organized threat of thunderstorms appears to be on
Tuesday afternoon as a cold front pushes through the region. This
looks to be the day with the best pairing of shear (30-40 knots) and
CAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Do think this threat will
be rather marginal, but something to keep an eye on.

Otherwise, this pattern lends itself to chances for showers and
storms pretty much every day in the long term period with high
temperatures near seasonal averages. Predictability in the all
important finer scale details is inherently limited at this time
range. But, if waves rounding the upper trough and/or surface
boundaries (be it a front or residual outflow) move through during
or shortly after peak heating, there would likely be enough
instability to support strong to severe storms. We will also be on
the southern edge of the westerlies with seasonably strong flow
resulting in bulk shear values around or a little over 30 knots at
times; this could lend to further storm organization. Conversely,
meager mid-level lapse rates and potential cloud debris could temper
instability and limit the threat of stronger convection at
times.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front over the Ohio Valley will track eastward into the
area through tonight, delivering showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, some of which may be severe with
damaging winds and large hail being the primary threat. The
best chance for storms will be mid afternoon through early
evening.

Convection will wane later this evening and overnight as the
front sinks southward with linger showers possible through day
break. Patchy fog will be possible across areas that experience
rain, resulting in MVFR VIS for a period.

The front will settle south of the terminals on Sunday, with
early morning showers dwindling as winds trend out of the north
northwest at less than 10 knots. The frontal boundary to the
south will weaken Monday and Monday night, with mostly dry
conditions and VFR prevailing.

Sub-VFR is possible in patchy late night/early morning fog or any
periods of showers/thunderstorms mid next week. S flow Tuesday
likely becomes NW Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will approach the waters late this afternoon and
evening with the potential for strong to severe storms as it
crosses. An SCA is in effect for our middle and lower Chesapeake
Bay waters, as well as the lower Tidal Potomac through this
evening, with winds out of the south southwest.

The front will settle south of the waters Sunday as light
northerly winds prevail. Winds turn more southerly by Monday and
Monday night as the aforementioned front weakens to our south.
The gradient tightens a bit Monday night with the potential for
SCA gusts returning to the waters.

S flow Tuesday likely becomes NW by Wednesday. SCA gusts are
possible at times, along with the potential for strong storms.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A south to southwest flow will cause elevated water levels, with
sensitive areas reaching action stage through tonight. However,
confidence for minor flooding is low since the flow will be west
of south.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001.
MD...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for MDZ011-013-014-
     504-506.
VA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ053-054.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ533-534-
     537-543.
     Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BKF
NEAR TERM...BKF
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...DHOF/CJL
AVIATION...BKF/DHOF
MARINE...BKF/DHOF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/DHOF

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
807 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW ROCKVILLE         39.07N  77.18W
07/02/2022                   MONTGOMERY         MD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE BLEW DOWN ONTO A RESIDENCE NEAR STARLIGHT CT AND
            ROYAL OAK CT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2204044

CAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
832 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW ROCKVILLE          39.09N  77.17W
07/02/2022                   MONTGOMERY         MD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF WIRES DOWN WITH A TRANSFORMER FIRE NEAR THE
            300 BLOCK OF MANNAKEE ST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2204045

CAS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
854 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S MIDDLETOWN          39.42N  77.55W
07/02/2022                   FREDERICK          MD   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE BLEW DOWN NEAR THE 3430 BLOCK OF BUSSARD RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2204047

CAS

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